UFC Fight Night 143: Cejudo vs. Dillashaw - Predictions and Picks

#4 Joseph Benavidez vs. Dustin Ortiz

Joseph Benavidez looked back to his best against Alex Perez

According to most reports, the reason for this fight is to create a backup fighter for the main event; should Dillashaw miss weight, then Benavidez – or perhaps Ortiz – is expected to step in. Hopefully that won’t happen, and so we’ll get a rematch of a fight we saw back in 2014, when Benavidez outworked Ortiz for a decision.

Ortiz has improved somewhat since their first fight; he’s had mixed results going 5-3, but he’s mostly been impressive, particularly with his recent winning streak that saw him knock out the dangerous Matheus Nicolau in the first round. But this is a tricky fight for him – he’s facing a guy who already beat him comfortably, and is probably a better grappler and striker.

A few months ago I might’ve been tempted to pick Ortiz here as I felt Benavidez was past his best, but then he turned back the clock and destroyed Alex Perez with one of his best performances in years in November. Essentially, at 125lbs he’s only ever lost to an exceptional striker in Sergio Pettis, and the greatest of all time at the weight in Demetrious Johnson.

It feels strange given I picked Alex Perez against him just a few weeks ago, but after that Perez fight I’m not comfortable in picking against Benavidez at Flyweight again – unless he faces Cejudo. Ortiz is solid enough but I just don’t think he has what it takes here.

The Pick: Benavidez via unanimous decision