UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 - Predictions and Picks

#3 Demian Maia vs. Lyman Good

Can Demian Maia's grappling get him past Lyman Good?

This one should be a classic striker vs. grappler match, as despite all of his improvements standing, Maia remains one of the most dangerous submission artists in the UFC, while former Bellator champion Lyman Good has won both of his Octagon victories via knockout, and has rarely ventured onto the ground during his time in the promotion.

In all honesty, this would probably have been a simple win for Maia in his prime; I’m sure Good has improved since 2010, but back then he was easily beaten by Ben Askren, who simply took the Tiger Schulmann product downtime after time and outworked him positionally on the ground, coming close with a couple of submissions. And while Maia isn’t as credentialed a wrestler as Askren, his takedowns were phenomenal for a time – enough for him to easily outwrestle Jon Fitch, for instance.

The problem is that Maia hasn’t really looked in his prime for a while now, and while he put together a hot run that gained him a title shot in 2017, since he lost that title opportunity to Tyron Woodley he hasn’t won a fight and was comfortably beaten by both Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman. And at 41 years old, it’s easy to assume that Father Time has simply caught up with the Brazilian for good.

Having said that, it must be noted that Woodley, Covington and Usman are all amongst the very best wrestlers in the 170lbs division, and they’re also amongst the most athletic in the division too. Maia – who has never been an explosive athlete, even in his prime – may well have struggled with those three opponents at any point in his career.

Good is definitely an explosive athlete. He hits extremely hard, has pinpoint striking and attacks with a striking style that, like most Tiger Schulmann-trained fighters, leans heavily on quick combinations and sharp counterpunching. Good is perhaps more aggressive than his teammates Jimmie Rivera and Louis Gaudinot, but against Maia – who will look to time his takedowns when Good comes in swinging – that may change.

This is a tricky fight to pick as it’s so difficult to tell whether Maia is done at the top level or not. At 41 it’s definitely possible that he is, especially given he’s been fighting in the UFC for over a decade now. But last time I was ready to write him off – after his loss to Rory MacDonald and a couple of slower outings that followed – he came roaring back and earned himself a title shot.

In the end, I’m just not convinced enough by Good to see him being able to fend off Maia’s takedowns and get him out of there without ending up on his back once. And given grappling skills like Maia’s are one of the few parts of MMA that don’t rely on tremendous athleticism, I don’t see that he will have degenerated since 2015 when he made an incredible grappler like Gunnar Nelson look silly.

Good might hurt Maia early but at some point, this fight is going to hit the ground, and when it does I’m betting that it’ll be over in Maia’s favour.

The Pick: Maia via second round submission