UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 - Predictions and Picks

#4 Charles Oliveira vs. David Teymur

Charles Oliveira will be looking for another submission win on Saturday

Like the previous fight, this one is a classic striker vs. grappler match. Oliveira now has his name in the UFC’s history books for the most wins via submission with 12, while Teymur is almost exclusively a kickboxer, and the Swedish fighter has used that striking game to win all 5 of his UFC fights, including a pair of knockouts in his early days with the promotion.

This should be an interesting one to watch because both men have pretty clear paths to victory. Oliveira simply needs to get the fight to the ground, and if he can do that then the win should be his. Teymur is simply too unproven on the mat and ‘Do Bronx’ is an incredible grappler, capable of slapping on various submission holds from all kinds of positions. Even if Teymur can explode out of bad positions early, if he can’t stay on his feet then he’s likely to lose.

Having said that, it must be noted that Teymur hasn’t been beating only his fellow strikers. His last two wins came over Drakkar Klose and Nik Lentz – both notable wrestlers, and it could perhaps be argued that both men have better or equal takedowns to Oliveira, even if they’re nowhere near his level in terms of submission grappling. And neither man was really able to take Teymur down and keep him there.

Oliveira has also traditionally shown a lot of vulnerability standing. While he seems willing to trade off with more powerful strikers and does possess a decent Muay Thai attack, he’s also lost by strikes on numerous occasions and has shown a worrying tendency to fold under pressure, particularly when his opponent attacks his body – as we saw in his losses to Cub Swanson and Donald Cerrone. His submission losses to Ricardo Lamas and Anthony Pettis were also set up by damaging strikes.

The more I think about it, the more I’m leaning towards Teymur here. Oliveira has been on a great run and is unbelievably dangerous on the ground, but he’s also a smaller 155lber and – recent bodyslam of Jim Miller aside – isn’t the greatest wrestler.

If Teymur can stay on his bike and pick at the Brazilian from the outside – while stepping in to hurt him where possible, particularly to the body, where he loves to throw knees – then it’s definitely a winnable fight. Teymur already proved his striking credentials by beating the flashy Lando Vannata with relative ease – now it’s time to prove that he can step up to the next level.

The Pick: Teymur via first round TKO