UFC Fight Night 144: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 - Predictions and Picks

#6 Livinha Souza vs. Sarah Frota

Livinha Souza made a great UFC debut in 2018 and will be looking to make a run at the Strawweight title

One of the best acquisitions of 2018 in the Strawweight division, former Invicta champion Souza made good on her UFC debut in September, easily dealing with Alex Chambers in the first round, knocking ‘Astro Girl’ down before submitting her with a guillotine choke. At 12-1 with her only career loss to UFC contender Angela Hill, Souza is primed for a run at the top and has the well-rounded skills to back it up.

Frota meanwhile is making her UFC debut here. She’s a product of Dana White’s Contender Series, where she won her fight in violent fashion, knocking her opponent out in the first round. She won’t win any beauty contests any time soon but with her facial tattoos and scary demeanour, she’s certainly one of the most intimidating-looking fighters in the division.

Will that be enough to get her past Souza, though? I’m not convinced. Footage on her shows her to seemingly be a less-powerful Jessica Andrade standing, rushing forward with a berserker-style to set up her takedowns and ground game. That style works for Andrade largely because she’s got bricks for fists, but despite Frota winning by knockout on DWTNCS, she’s quite clearly not as powerful a puncher as ‘Bate Estaca’.

Souza meanwhile is much more of a grappling-based fighter, but she’s also got a pretty sharp kickboxing game, as was demonstrated when she took out current UFC Flyweight DeAnna Bennett in Invicta in 2016. And with this in mind, I’m just not sure that Frota’s aggressive, berserker-style is going to work here against a far more experienced opponent. Frota is 9-0, but she’s only been fighting since April 2016 – at which point Souza was already holding the Invicta title.

I’m happy to take Souza here despite her likely giving up some physicality. Even if she gives up a takedown I think she’s got enough to outgrapple Frota and submit her from the bottom or the top following a sweep. I just can’t trust someone as inexperienced as Frota.

The Pick: Souza via first round submission