UFC Fight Night 145: Blachowicz vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks

The UFC has made a habit of breaking into new European markets over the past few years; the Netherlands, Poland and Croatia have all been visited recently along with the UK, which has been a regular stopping point for the promotion for a decade. This weekend marks the debut show in the Czech Republic, as the UFC visits the capital city of Prague.

The show – which will air live on the ESPN+ streaming service and on BT Sport in the UK – is your typical UFC Euro fare, with no huge names but some pretty intriguing fights involving a lot of top European stars.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 145: Blachowicz vs. Santos.

#1 Jan Blachowicz vs. Thiago Santos

Jan Blachowicz has won 4 fights in a row at 205lbs

With Anthony Smith getting his Light-Heavyweight title shot at UFC 235 and champ Jon Jones apparently willing to take on all comers, it seems like the next shot at 205lbs – assuming Smith doesn’t upset Jones of course – is very much up-in-the-air right now, meaning this main event could definitely have title implications.

Both Jan Blachowicz and Thiago Santos have been on hot runs as of late; Poland’s Blachowicz is on a 4-fight winning streak, while Santos entered the division with a bang in 2018, stopping both Eryk Anders and Jimi Manuwa in violent and exciting fashion. But who’s going to win this battle of striking-based fighters?

Blachowicz – who debuted in the UFC back in 2014 – has a record of 6-4 in the Octagon with an overall record of 23-7. ‘The Prince of Ciesnyn’ initially seemed like a largely one-dimensional kickboxer, but recently he’s shown some surprising submission chops – tapping out both Devin Clark and Nikita Krylov in impressive fashion.

While he does have 4 losses in the Octagon, it’s notable that he’s never really struggled with fellow strikers; Patrick Cummins and Corey Anderson both outwrestled him to victories, while Jimi Manuwa largely outhustled him in the clinch before being thoroughly beaten in their 2018 rematch. Even Alexander Gustafsson was being hurt by the Pole in striking exchanges before using his ground game to grind out a win.

Blachowicz’s strengths clearly lie with his striking; he’s got a good boxing game based around a solid jab; his body kicks are absolutely vicious – just ask Ilir Latifi, who was finished by him in that fashion in 2014 – and he’s pretty handy inside the clinch too.

Santos meanwhile has been an offensive marvel since his UFC debut in 2013. ‘Marreta’ struggled during a stint on The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil, but then put together an excellent record of 10-5 at 185lbs, with notable wins against Elias Theodorou, Nate Marquardt, Jack Hermansson and Anthony Smith. Since moving to 205lbs in late 2018, he’s 2-0 and finished both Eryk Anders and Jimi Manuwa.

The problem for Santos has always been his tendency to fight like the proverbial glass cannon. Offensively, he’s absolutely tremendous, winging strikes and combinations with insane power both from the clinch and from the outside. He’s taken opponents out with punches, head kicks and knees, and he’s done it from the ground as well as standing. But not only has his ground game been porous at times – he was easily tapped by Eric Spicely, for instance – but he’s also hittable standing.

That probably stems from his wild nature; Santos is willing to trade off with his opponents, betting on his power pulling him through, but unfortunately his chin hasn’t always held up. Sure, he defeated Manuwa in a hell of a brawl, but Manuwa also has chin issues. And while there’s no shame in being knocked out by Gegard Mousasi, a KO loss to David Branch was alarming indeed.

Santos and his camp would probably claim that his lack of durability was caused by a huge weight cut to 185lbs, which is no longer an issue, but I’m not so sure personally – he definitely got hurt by both Anders and Manuwa even if he recovered to win. Against a striker like Jan Blachowicz though, that could prove to be an issue.

This should be a hell of a fight as both guys will likely wing strikes at one another until one falls down. I’m betting on Blachowicz, though; I worry for Santos when he’s facing a guy who’s only ever lost by TKO once – and that was via leg kicks – as his wild style just lends itself to taking counters, and Blachowicz’s chin should be stout enough to take punishment while I suspect ‘Marreta’ may fold under the Pole’s power.

The Pick: Blachowicz via first round KO

#2 Stefan Struve vs. Marcos Rogerio De Lima

Stefan Struve has been a staple in the Heavyweight division for a decade now

It seems hard to believe, but Dutch Heavyweight Stefan Struve has now been with the UFC for a full decade, as he debuted pretty much ten years ago to the week of this show with his KO loss to Junior Dos Santos. Few fighters have gone through quite so many ups and downs and still kept their place on the UFC roster, too.

‘Skyscraper’ is currently 12-9 inside the Octagon, but he’s also in the midst of his worst run in the promotion, as he’s on a three-fight skid and hasn’t won since 2016. The tallest fighter on the UFC roster at 7’0”, Struve has always shown flashes of elite-level talent – his 2012 KO of Stipe Miocic, for instance – but for various reasons that we’ll explore in a second, he’s never quite gotten himself into title contention.

Essentially, while you’d expect him to be a deadly striker given his insane range and reach (84.5”), he’s never quite worked out how to maximise those natural gifts. He doesn’t really use a ramrod jab, and while his long punches and kicks can be effective when he finds his range, he’s way too open to eating a big counter shot and his chin isn’t the most durable – as we saw when Mark Hunt violently knocked him out back in 2013 with a pair of overhand hooks.

6 years have passed since then, but judging by his KO loss to Alexander Volkov in 2017, he still suffers from the same issues. His ground game is equally inconsistent; capable of snatching nasty submissions due to his long limbs, Struve has notable tapout wins over Daniel Omielanczuk, Pat Barry and Lavar Johnson. But his takedown defense is also pretty poor, as is his bottom game against a competent grappler – something that led directly to his 2018 losses to Marcin Tybura and Andrei Arlovski.

With his back firmly to the wall though, this fight with Marcos Rogerio De Lima actually sounds like a winnable one to me, assuming he’s not thoroughly shot after a decade of action at the top. ‘Pezao’ arrived in the UFC in 2014 off the back of a middling showing on TUF: Brazil but looked like a potential contender when he smashed Richardson Moreira and Igor Pokrajac in his first two outings.

He was easily handled by Nikita Krylov in his next fight though, and since then he’s alternated wins and losses, giving him a UFC record of 5-3 coming into this clash with Struve. A heavy-handed kickboxer, De Lima’s main weapon is his stand-up, as he throws powerful leg kicks, hooks to the head and body, and he’s also adept at ground striking from the top position too. It’s hardly a surprise, therefore, that of his 16 wins, 11 have come by KO or TKO.

On the flip side, De Lima’s grappling skills have shown to be somewhat lacking during his tenure in the UFC. All three of his losses have come via submission, and you can add a 4th to that if you count his loss to Antonio Carlos Junior on TUF. ‘Pezao’ does have a lone submission win on his ledger, but it was an arm triangle of Clint Hester based more around power and squeeze than genuine jiu-jitsu skill.

The biggest issue I can see for De Lima in this fight is his size; initially a Light-Heavyweight in the UFC, he moved up to Heavyweight in 2018 after missing the 205lbs limit twice in 2017. He did defeat Adam Wieczorek at UFC 230 at Heavyweight, but physically he didn’t look great, as he certainly didn’t appear to be svelte at his new weight. He did show some solid ground skills in the fight which was a plus point, but I suspect he’ll be hugely outsized against Struve – who has to cut weight to make 265lbs.

De Lima could win this one I guess; he could land a clubbing blow to take Struve out early on, and if he can get the Dutchman to the ground then there’s every chance he could also pound him out. But Struve’s issues with grappling haven’t been coming against smaller Heavyweights – last time he fought one of those, he choked Daniel Omielanczuk out with ease. De Lima just isn’t a grappler on the level of Marcin Tybura or even latter day Andrei Arlovski, and I can’t see him taking Struve down.

That leaves us with either a stand-up battle – meaning there’s a 50/50 chance of Struve being knocked out – or the possibility that Struve takes De Lima down and deals with him on the ground as Ovince St. Preux and Krylov did. I’m taking my chances with that scenario and going for Struve via submission.

The Pick: Struve via second round submission

#3 Gian Villante vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Will Gian Villante put on another wild brawl on Saturday?

We should get a semi-entertaining brawl from these two 205lbers, as judging from both men’s past UFC outings, defense is hardly the first thing on either man’s mind inside the Octagon. Neither man appears to be in line to break into the title picture any time soon, but this could be a key fight for Oleksiejczuk in particular; win, and the Polish fighter could at least establish himself as a potential name to watch in the future.

Last time we saw Oleksiejczuk in the Octagon was way back at UFC 219 at the end of 2017. He defeated Khalil Rountree that night – walking the heavy-handed striker down to land his own big shots, en route to a third-round takedown and ground-and-pound clinic that led to a decision victory. Unfortunately, ‘Lord’ then tested positive for clomiphene and was hit by a suspension, hence why we haven’t seen him since.

Judging by his propensity for walking through punches to deliver his own – a tactic that is visible on his footage and seems to work for him, as he’s 12-2 and hasn’t lost a fight since 2014 – he should match up well with Villante, who has exactly the same modus operandi. Villante’s UFC record is telling of his inconsistent nature – he’s 7-7 inside the Octagon and has never quite gotten over the hump, despite the odd flash that would suggest he could be a contender.

He impressively knocked out Corey Anderson in 2015 for instance – but was then knocked out by Tom Lawlor in his next fight. And he ended 2016 with an impressive ground-and-pound win over Saparbek Safarov, but was then drawn into dirty brawls – and beaten – by Shogun Rua and Patrick Cummins in his next two fights.

Villante hits extremely hard and has solid boxing skills, but his lack of defense is simply alarming – his recent fight with Ed Herman, for instance, saw both men simply standing in front of each other and winging haymaker after haymaker, thankfully without landing every single punch. Against a better striker, he may have been taken out – but he did enough to win a decision. In his previous fight though – a similar affair – Sam Alvey edged the call on the judges’ scorecards.

This fight will likely follow the same pattern. If the pace is high it may be a fun slop-fest, but if both men slow down, it could degenerate into something pretty hard to watch. If one man slows down while the other doesn’t, of course, the likelihood is that someone’s getting knocked out.

I’m going to hazard a guess then that both men end up with empty gas tanks, and so this one will go to the judges’ scorecards and be pretty close. Oleksiejczuk might have the better chin though, so I’ll take him to edge out a win.

The Pick: Oleksiejczuk via split decision

#4 Liz Carmouche vs. Lucie Pudilova

Lucie Pudilova will be fighting at home against veteran Liz Carmouche

The UFC loves to have a hometown fighter on these regional cards and on this occasion, Lucie Pudilova fits the bill. Debuting in the UFC in 2017, Pudilova is currently 2-2 there and is coming off a loss to Irene Aldana in what was a hell of a brawl in the end.

You can see why the UFC brass would like her, too – she’s aggressive to the core and while she’s not the cleanest or most technical striker, she’s willing to trade and has a lot of power, as evidenced in her beatdown of Sarah Moras.

This will be her first outing at Flyweight too, meaning she should hopefully carry even more power in her hands. There are a lot of unknown factors when it comes to the Czech brawler though – her takedown defense has rarely been tested inside the Octagon and while she seems adept at clinch fighting, her ground game is a bit of a question mark too.

Carmouche meanwhile has been around the block for ages now. She was obviously part of the first ever female fight in UFC history when she took on Ronda Rousey in an unsuccessful challenge for the Bantamweight title, and since then ‘Girl-Rilla’ has seen some highs and lows, going 4-4 with her most recent win being an impressive one over former Invicta Flyweight champ Jennifer Maia.

Carmouche is big and powerful for 125lbs, and like Pudilova, she’s more of a power striker than a technical one – although she doesn’t really carry true knockout power as evidenced by all but one of her UFC wins – a win over a smaller and inexperienced Jessica Andrade – going the distance. Where Carmouche has a big advantage here is likely with her wrestling. She’s got excellent takedowns and is pretty solid from top position, particularly with her ground strikes.

I wouldn’t count Pudilova out of this one completely as I’d wager that she perhaps hits harder than Carmouche and could surprise the veteran with her power coming down to 125lbs for the first time. But barring a flash knockout – and that doesn’t seem likely given Carmouche has never been KO’d or TKO’d – I suspect Carmouche’s ground game will be enough to carry her through here.

I find it hard to trust European fighters in terms of their wrestling defence anyway, particularly strikers like Pudilova, and Carmouche will almost certainly be the best takedown artist she’s ever faced. If Pudilova can put enough volume on ‘Girl-Rilla’ then she might steal a round at least, but I think she’s going to be outmatched on the ground.

The Pick: Carmouche via unanimous decision

#5 John Dodson vs. Petr Yan

John Dodson is one of the UFC's fastest fighters

This could well be the Fight of the Night, as for all his faults, Dodson is at his best when an opponent brings the fight to him – and judging by his previous UFC action, Yan is highly aggressive and more than willing to come forward to attack. The big question for me is which fighter – if either – will turn out to be outgunned come Saturday night?

The book on Dodson is essentially written at this point – a deadly southpaw counter-striker, he moves at a ridiculously fast pace and hits far harder than you’d expect a smaller fighter to hit. We haven’t seen a lot of his ground game in the UFC, but that’s largely because he doesn’t really look for takedowns and he’s so quick that the only opponent to really ground him was the equally fast Demetrious Johnson.

With this skill-set, Dodson sounds practically unbeatable, but that’s not the case – as essentially a strict counter-fighter, it’s easy to lull him into a low-output fight that can go either way when it goes to the judges, which is exactly what caused his losses to Marlon Moraes and John Lineker. Jimmie Rivera meanwhile was able to hit him with more volume while avoiding the heavy counters – admittedly, something few fighters would be able to pull off.

Yan meanwhile has been perfect in the UFC at 3-0. The Russian came into the promotion with the reputation as a hard-hitting boxer, and thus far he’s lived up to all of that hype. ‘No Mercy’ destroyed Teruto Ishihara in his debut, and then hit Jin Soo Son with everything he had, gaining the Fight of the Night bonus largely because Son simply wouldn’t go down.

Most recently, he destroyed Douglas Silva de Andrade in a ruthless display, absorbing the aggression of ‘D’Silva’ before turning up the heat to the point where the Brazilian was unable to come out for a third round. It was a hugely impressive showing from the Russian and catapulted him into this high profile fight.

For me this comes down to whether Yan can press Dodson without eating something nasty on the counter. He went into counter mode against De Andrade, but then the Brazilian is recklessly aggressive, something that can’t be said at all for Dodson. Yan is going to have to push this fight if he wants that kind of battle. If he doesn’t, we could be looking at a low-output affair, but that doesn’t really feel like Yan’s style.

I’m actually worried for Yan here as Dodson is likely the fastest opponent he’s ever faced, but I also suspect that ‘The Magician’ may finally be slowing down somewhat, as evidenced by his fight with Rivera last year and also by his split decision win over Pedro Munhoz – another fight that could’ve gone either way. I doubt Yan can put Dodson away – nobody else has, after all – but I’m going to take Yan by close decision here.

The Pick: Yan via split decision

#6 Magomed Ankalaev vs. Klidson Abreu

Magomed Ankalaev is one of the UFC's best prospects at 205lbs

I’m pretty excited for this 205lbs tilt, as Ankalaev is a fighter I’ve been keeping an eye on for some time now as a potential title contender in the future. He was seconds away from going 2-0 in the UFC in 2018 – his loss to Paul Craig was one of the all-time great Octagon comebacks, as Ankalaev was destroying the Scotsman before being caught in a Hail Mary triangle choke – and looked fantastic in taking out Marcin Prachnio in September.

An intimidating-looking character, as a native of Dagestan it should come as no surprise that Ankalaev’s background is in wrestling, boxing and sambo. And while he clearly hits hard, his best work is done from the top position, where he’s utterly ruthless with his ground-and-pound. He appears to be somewhat of a slow starter, but once he gets an opponent down, they’re in trouble.

Abreu meanwhile will be making his Octagon debut after taking this fight on around 6 weeks’ notice following the withdrawal of Darko Stosic. He’s currently 14-2 in MMA and impressively, he’s got a win over current rising star Johnny Walker, via rear naked choke in 2015. Footage on Abreu shows a willing striker, but it’s quite clear that he’s more at home on the ground – a fact backed up by 10 submissions in his 14 wins.

Debuting Brazilians usually tend to have been snacking on overmatched opponents on the regional scene, but Abreu’s record is quite impressive in that recently, he’s been taking on some pretty tough foes in Russia and has been able to beat them all.

Overall though, I worry for a ground-based fighter against a wrestler as seemingly accomplished as Ankalaev. If Abreu comes out with a lot of aggression he might be able to surprise the Dagestani, but I’m not sure that’ll be the case given it’s the Brazilian’s Octagon debut. And if he can’t get Ankalaev down or – even worse – ends up on his back, then I’m confident that this will be Ankalaev’s fight to lose.

The Pick: Ankalaev via second round TKO

#7 Preliminary Bouts: ESPN+ card

The underrated Rustam Khabilov faces Diego Ferreira on the prelims

ESPN+ will also be playing host to the show’s prelim bouts, and in the headliner, Veronica Macedo takes on Gillian Robertson at Flyweight. Venezuela’s Macedo hasn’t shown a lot in her UFC career thus far, picking up two losses at the hands of Ashlee Evans-Smith and Andrea Lee.

The fact that Lee – known as a striker – outgrappled her is particularly worrying. Robertson meanwhile looked good in taking out Molly McCann last year on the ground and while she was submitted in her last fight, I favour her to work Macedo over to pick up a decision win here.

At Welterweight, Dwight Grant faces Carlo Pedersoli Jr in a fight that it’s a bit hard to care about given both men’s previous fights. Grant’s athletic ability and counterstriking should be enough to see him through I suspect, but who knows really? I’ll take Grant via decision.

Polo Reyes faces Damir Hadzovic at 155lbs in what promises to be a brawl, judging on the previous fights from both men. Hadzovic, a former Welterweight, should have a size advantage but I’m not sure that I trust him to ground Reyes, and the Mexican hits remarkably hard. I’m going with Reyes via KO here.

At Welterweight, Michel Prazeres takes on late replacement Ismail Naurdiev following the withdrawal of Ramazan Emeev. Naurdiev has a gaudy record (17-2) but I just can’t imagine him fending off the takedowns of Prazeres, who looked amazing last time out in taking out the tough Bartosz Fabinski. Prazeres via submission – putting him on an insane 9-fight win streak – is my pick.

At Featherweight, Chris Fishgold faces Daniel Teymur in what will likely be a stand-up affair. Fishgold lost by KO to Calvin Kattar in his UFC debut, but Kattar is a hugely talented fighter while Teymur appears to be a lesser version of brother David. I’ll take Fishgold via second round KO in this one.

Rustam Khabilov returns to take on fellow veteran Diego Ferreira at Lightweight, and for me this is the underrated Khabilov’s fight to lose, as Ferreira has shown issues with strong wrestlers before and has been beating much lower-level opponents. If Khabilov can get a finish here it’d be impressive, but I think he grinds out another decision.

Finally at Lightweight, Damir Ismagulov – who won his UFC debut in November – battles Spanish newcomer Joel Alvarez. I’m taking Ismagulov here; he just seems more tested than Alvarez, but to be honest there’s so little footage on both men it’s hard to choose.