UFC Fight Night 145: Blachowicz vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks

#3 Gian Villante vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk

Will Gian Villante put on another wild brawl on Saturday?

We should get a semi-entertaining brawl from these two 205lbers, as judging from both men’s past UFC outings, defense is hardly the first thing on either man’s mind inside the Octagon. Neither man appears to be in line to break into the title picture any time soon, but this could be a key fight for Oleksiejczuk in particular; win, and the Polish fighter could at least establish himself as a potential name to watch in the future.

Last time we saw Oleksiejczuk in the Octagon was way back at UFC 219 at the end of 2017. He defeated Khalil Rountree that night – walking the heavy-handed striker down to land his own big shots, en route to a third-round takedown and ground-and-pound clinic that led to a decision victory. Unfortunately, ‘Lord’ then tested positive for clomiphene and was hit by a suspension, hence why we haven’t seen him since.

Judging by his propensity for walking through punches to deliver his own – a tactic that is visible on his footage and seems to work for him, as he’s 12-2 and hasn’t lost a fight since 2014 – he should match up well with Villante, who has exactly the same modus operandi. Villante’s UFC record is telling of his inconsistent nature – he’s 7-7 inside the Octagon and has never quite gotten over the hump, despite the odd flash that would suggest he could be a contender.

He impressively knocked out Corey Anderson in 2015 for instance – but was then knocked out by Tom Lawlor in his next fight. And he ended 2016 with an impressive ground-and-pound win over Saparbek Safarov, but was then drawn into dirty brawls – and beaten – by Shogun Rua and Patrick Cummins in his next two fights.

Villante hits extremely hard and has solid boxing skills, but his lack of defense is simply alarming – his recent fight with Ed Herman, for instance, saw both men simply standing in front of each other and winging haymaker after haymaker, thankfully without landing every single punch. Against a better striker, he may have been taken out – but he did enough to win a decision. In his previous fight though – a similar affair – Sam Alvey edged the call on the judges’ scorecards.

This fight will likely follow the same pattern. If the pace is high it may be a fun slop-fest, but if both men slow down, it could degenerate into something pretty hard to watch. If one man slows down while the other doesn’t, of course, the likelihood is that someone’s getting knocked out.

I’m going to hazard a guess then that both men end up with empty gas tanks, and so this one will go to the judges’ scorecards and be pretty close. Oleksiejczuk might have the better chin though, so I’ll take him to edge out a win.

The Pick: Oleksiejczuk via split decision