UFC Fight Night 145: Blachowicz vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks

#4 Liz Carmouche vs. Lucie Pudilova

Lucie Pudilova will be fighting at home against veteran Liz Carmouche

The UFC loves to have a hometown fighter on these regional cards and on this occasion, Lucie Pudilova fits the bill. Debuting in the UFC in 2017, Pudilova is currently 2-2 there and is coming off a loss to Irene Aldana in what was a hell of a brawl in the end.

You can see why the UFC brass would like her, too – she’s aggressive to the core and while she’s not the cleanest or most technical striker, she’s willing to trade and has a lot of power, as evidenced in her beatdown of Sarah Moras.

This will be her first outing at Flyweight too, meaning she should hopefully carry even more power in her hands. There are a lot of unknown factors when it comes to the Czech brawler though – her takedown defense has rarely been tested inside the Octagon and while she seems adept at clinch fighting, her ground game is a bit of a question mark too.

Carmouche meanwhile has been around the block for ages now. She was obviously part of the first ever female fight in UFC history when she took on Ronda Rousey in an unsuccessful challenge for the Bantamweight title, and since then ‘Girl-Rilla’ has seen some highs and lows, going 4-4 with her most recent win being an impressive one over former Invicta Flyweight champ Jennifer Maia.

Carmouche is big and powerful for 125lbs, and like Pudilova, she’s more of a power striker than a technical one – although she doesn’t really carry true knockout power as evidenced by all but one of her UFC wins – a win over a smaller and inexperienced Jessica Andrade – going the distance. Where Carmouche has a big advantage here is likely with her wrestling. She’s got excellent takedowns and is pretty solid from top position, particularly with her ground strikes.

I wouldn’t count Pudilova out of this one completely as I’d wager that she perhaps hits harder than Carmouche and could surprise the veteran with her power coming down to 125lbs for the first time. But barring a flash knockout – and that doesn’t seem likely given Carmouche has never been KO’d or TKO’d – I suspect Carmouche’s ground game will be enough to carry her through here.

I find it hard to trust European fighters in terms of their wrestling defence anyway, particularly strikers like Pudilova, and Carmouche will almost certainly be the best takedown artist she’s ever faced. If Pudilova can put enough volume on ‘Girl-Rilla’ then she might steal a round at least, but I think she’s going to be outmatched on the ground.

The Pick: Carmouche via unanimous decision