UFC Fight Night 145: Blachowicz vs. Santos - Predictions and Picks

#6 Magomed Ankalaev vs. Klidson Abreu

Magomed Ankalaev is one of the UFC's best prospects at 205lbs

I’m pretty excited for this 205lbs tilt, as Ankalaev is a fighter I’ve been keeping an eye on for some time now as a potential title contender in the future. He was seconds away from going 2-0 in the UFC in 2018 – his loss to Paul Craig was one of the all-time great Octagon comebacks, as Ankalaev was destroying the Scotsman before being caught in a Hail Mary triangle choke – and looked fantastic in taking out Marcin Prachnio in September.

An intimidating-looking character, as a native of Dagestan it should come as no surprise that Ankalaev’s background is in wrestling, boxing and sambo. And while he clearly hits hard, his best work is done from the top position, where he’s utterly ruthless with his ground-and-pound. He appears to be somewhat of a slow starter, but once he gets an opponent down, they’re in trouble.

Abreu meanwhile will be making his Octagon debut after taking this fight on around 6 weeks’ notice following the withdrawal of Darko Stosic. He’s currently 14-2 in MMA and impressively, he’s got a win over current rising star Johnny Walker, via rear naked choke in 2015. Footage on Abreu shows a willing striker, but it’s quite clear that he’s more at home on the ground – a fact backed up by 10 submissions in his 14 wins.

Debuting Brazilians usually tend to have been snacking on overmatched opponents on the regional scene, but Abreu’s record is quite impressive in that recently, he’s been taking on some pretty tough foes in Russia and has been able to beat them all.

Overall though, I worry for a ground-based fighter against a wrestler as seemingly accomplished as Ankalaev. If Abreu comes out with a lot of aggression he might be able to surprise the Dagestani, but I’m not sure that’ll be the case given it’s the Brazilian’s Octagon debut. And if he can’t get Ankalaev down or – even worse – ends up on his back, then I’m confident that this will be Ankalaev’s fight to lose.

The Pick: Ankalaev via second round TKO