UFC Fight Night 146: Lewis vs. Dos Santos - Predictions and Picks

The UFC makes its debut in the state of Kansas for the first time this weekend, as the Heavyweights headline UFC Fight Night 146 from Wichita. The entire show, from the prelims to the main card, will air live on the ESPN+ streaming service in the US.

It’s not a stacked card by any means but there’s definitely some intrigue in the main event between Derrick Lewis and Junior Dos Santos, and with names like Curtis Millender, Niko Price and Ben Rothwell on the card, we should be at least in for some wild action inside the Octagon.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 146: Lewis vs. Dos Santos.

#1 Junior Dos Santos vs. Derrick Lewis

Can Junior Dos Santos survive the onslaught of Derrick Lewis?

This is an interesting bit of matchmaking from Sean Shelby, as Lewis is coming off his loss to Daniel Cormier while JDS is actually on a two-fight winning streak, but it does seem to make sense. Beat JDS, and Lewis’s spot as a top-level Heavyweight is basically confirmed, even if another title shot isn’t likely any time soon.

If JDS wins meanwhile, it’d give him his strongest run since his initial charge to the Heavyweight title from 2008 to 2011, and there’d definitely be an argument for putting him up against Cormier with the title on the line – or at least to give him a title eliminator against Francis Ngannou.

For me this is a hard fight to pick in a lot of ways. From a technical standpoint, you’d have to favour Dos Santos massively. He’s simply a far superior striker to Lewis, as he uses his jab well to set up his bigger punches – and has even won fights primarily by deploying said jab – and has a more dynamic kicking game, too. Lewis is perhaps more dangerous on the ground, but then the only guy to ever be able to ground JDS was Cain Velasquez – and let’s be frank, Lewis is not Velasquez when it comes to wrestling.

In that sense, it’d be easy to view this as a carbon copy of Dos Santos’ fights with Ben Rothwell and Blagoy Ivanov. In those fights, JDS picked apart his slower, more plodding opponent by using his jab, movement and combinations, and came away with a pretty clear-cut decision victory on both occasions. And Lewis definitely resembles both Rothwell and Ivanov in a lot of ways.

The problem for JDS however is that in the Ivanov fight, and also in his recent win over brawler Tai Tuivasa, he wasn’t immune to taking shots that caused him some damage. Ivanov never had him stunned but definitely busted his face up, while Tuivasa seemed to have him rattled early on before he became too wild and ate a huge counter from the Brazilian.

That spells trouble for a fight against Lewis, who’s arguably the hardest hitter in the division – although Ngannou might disagree. If Lewis lands cleanly on an opponent, they’re usually done. Just ask Alexander Volkov, who was basically tooling Lewis for 15 minutes before eating a huge right hand counter in the dying seconds of the fight. ‘The Black Beast’ is also surprisingly quick for a big man, and I’d argue he’s definitely faster than Rothwell or Ivanov.

Basically, if JDS decides to back up towards the cage – or if Lewis can manage to corral him with his own forward movement – and eats a bomb from the Beast, then this fight’s likely over. Lewis will simply unload on the Brazilian until he goes down. And there’s no doubt that Dos Santos’ chin is compromised after a decade of wars at the top.

With that said, for a guy as plodding as Lewis – even if he is quicker than people think – that isn’t going to be easy. Another major factor to consider is that Lewis has traditionally struggled with opponents attacking him to the body – remember how much damage Travis Browne did to him with body attacks? And few Heavyweights are as good at assaulting the body as JDS, who set up his famous title win over Velasquez in 2011 by attacking in that way.

I’m going with JDS here; I think he can use his superior speed and movement to basically jab Lewis to death from the outside, digging to the body for good measure to perhaps even set up a late finish. That pick definitely comes with a caveat, though – if Lewis can manage to land one single bomb, then he can definitely put JDS away. I’m just not confident in his abilities to find a way to land that punch. For me he’s more reliant on JDS making an error, and that’s not enough to bet on.

The Pick: Dos Santos via unanimous decision

#2 Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs. Curtis Millender

Curtis Millender will look for the knockout against Elizeu Zaleski

Welterweight is – along with Bantamweight and Lightweight – one of the most stacked weight classes in the UFC right now, and so it’s unsurprising to see a pair of 170lbers in the co-main event here. What is surprising is that Millender and Zaleski have been given this spotlight. After all, Zaleski has never been featured on a UFC main card while Millender has only made one main card appearance himself.

It’s hard to argue that they don’t deserve the opportunity, though. Millender is 3-0 in the Octagon thus far and hasn’t lost since 2015, while Zaleski has won 6 UFC fights in a row after losing his debut, and he’s also been putting foes away in flashy fashion – knocking out Sean Strickland with a wheel kick and Luigi Vendramini with a flying knee.

Watching his fight footage, it’s hard to understand why Zaleski hasn’t been showcased in the UFC before. To sum him up in one word, you’d probably label him a risk-taker. His nickname essentially gives away exactly what he’s all about. Where Brazilian strikers are usually Muay Thai-based, Zaleski’s background is in capoeira – the flashy striking style created by African slaves in Brazil that blends dance moves with martial arts.

That means Zaleski is willing to throw all kinds of crazy kicks and combinations at his opponent, as we saw in his wins over Strickland and Vendramini, as well as his previous victories over Lyman Good, Max Griffin and Omari Akhmedov. Making him even more dangerous though is his willingness to throw caution out of the window on the ground, too – diving for submissions and attempting wild suplexes if given the opportunity.

Millender, meanwhile, is a much more straight-ahead kickboxer, although that doesn’t make him any less dangerous. He’s a huge 170lber who stands at 6’3” and wields a 78” reach – for comparison’s sake, that’s 4” longer than ‘The Gorilla’ Darren Till, one of the more dangerous strikers in the division. ‘Curtious’ uses this reach wisely, abusing his opponents with jabs and kicks to the legs, body and head from range, and when he does get inside, he’s adept at attacking with his knees and elbows, often from odd angles.

It’s that range that makes this a difficult-sounding fight for Zaleski. The Brazilian stands at 5’11”, some 4” shorter than Millender, and he’s at a disadvantage when it comes to reach in terms of both punches and kicks. That wouldn’t matter so much if he were a more straightforward striker, but he’s the kind of fighter who tends to need range to fire off those wild capoeira combinations.

This could go either way in all honesty – either man could take the other out in a rush as they’re such quick, skilled strikers – but I’m leaning towards Millender, who to my knowledge has never really been beaten in a striking-based fight. As long as he can keep Zaleski at the end of his reach – and doesn’t get confused by the Brazilian’s unorthodox style – then I think he can pick at him with his kicks and jabs and outwork him to a decision. Expect a fun fight though, for sure.

The Pick: Millender via unanimous decision

#3 Tim Means vs. Niko Price

Niko Price is an extremely ruthless finisher

If any fighter has guaranteed excitement in the UFC over the last couple of years, it’s Niko Price. ‘Hybrid’ debuted in the Octagon in December 2016 with an upset arm triangle win over Brandon Thatch and hasn’t looked back since, going 5-2 (although 1 win was overturned due to a positive test for marijuana) and never coming close to reaching the end of a fight. Essentially, he’s the ultimate kill-or-be-killed fighter, as we saw in 2018 when he followed an unorthodox knockout of Randy Brown by being destroyed by Abdul Razak Alhassan in 43 seconds.

Means has been around for years now – ‘The Dirty Bird’ debuted in the UFC as a Lightweight back in 2012 and went 2-2 before being released. 2014 saw him return as a Welterweight – much safer for his long frame to handle – and he’s since gone 8-5 with 1 No Contest and has established himself as a super-tough gatekeeper in the division.

Means’ strength lies in his long reach, particularly inside the clinch, where he uses his long, skeletal limbs to punish his opponents with knees and elbows. A dangerous finisher, once Means has an opponent hurt he tends to put them away – as we saw in his last victory over Ricky Rainey in November.

The issue with Means is that while he’s durable, he often allows himself to be outworked by his opponent. Whether that’s inside the clinch or from the outside doesn’t tend to matter – ‘The Dirty Bird’ just seems to be lulled into a slow-paced fight, and it’s that tendency that saw him lose to Sergio Moraes and Belal Muhammad and gave him difficulties against Alex Garcia, whose own cardio issues are pretty notorious.

The good thing for Means in this fight is that I just can’t see Price looking to lull him into a slow-paced fight. Price is aggressive to a point and it doesn’t matter where the fight goes, he’s looking to be on the attack. That aggression has earned him plenty of wins, but it’s also earned him his UFC losses to Alhassan and Vicente Luque too.

For me this fight depends on how well Means handles Price’s initial – and inevitable – assault. If he can hold up to that kind of pressure then I could see him outworking Price in the clinch and probably getting him out of there with the nasty strikes he used to take out the likes of Sabah Homasi and Dhiego Lima. But he is 35 years old and has been fighting professionally since 2004, meaning Father Time could come knocking any time soon.

I’m taking Price here purely because Means isn’t as hard-hitting as the pair of fighters who have taken ‘Hybrid’ out in the past and I definitely think Means has slowed down over the past couple of years. I could well be proven wrong if Price ends up getting too wild and gets caught, but I just think he’s closer to his prime while Means is closer to the end.

The Pick: Price via first round TKO

#4 Blagoy Ivanov vs. Ben Rothwell

Blagoy Ivanov will look for his first UFC win against Ben Rothwell

This Heavyweight fight could be a ton of sloppy fun, or it could end up being totally painful to watch. Essentially, it all comes down to how long it goes. If Ivanov or Rothwell can connect on a big shot early on then it’ll be fun, if not, expect two big, tired dudes lumbering around throwing bombs at one another until one potentially falls down.

A legend in the world of combat sambo, Ivanov made his UFC debut last July coming off a run as the PFL/WSOF Heavyweight champion, but I found his fight with Junior Dos Santos a little disappointing – outstruck by the Brazilian, he just wasn’t able to get his clinch or ground game going and the fight ended up resembling JDS’s win over Rothwell, coincidentally enough.

With that said, the Bulgarian did show a ton of toughness, was never rocked by JDS, and was able to bust the former champion up with his clubbing blows. At 5’11” he’s not the tallest Heavyweight, but he’s built like a barrel, perhaps resembling the great Fedor Emelianenko more than any other modern fighter, in a physical sense at least.

Interestingly enough, that loss to JDS was the last time we saw Rothwell inside the Octagon. That fight was April 2016, and while he was booked to fight Fabricio Werdum in October 2017, he failed a drug test for elevated testosterone levels and was banned by USADA for two years. The positive test was his second for the same infraction, as he was also suspended in 2013 for the same reason.

Prior to the ban, Rothwell had looked pretty good, surprisingly using his ground game to submit Matt Mitrione and Josh Barnett to put him on the cusp of a Heavyweight title shot. Now 37 though – and likely not in the same shape he once was due to being unable to use testosterone supplements – who knows how much he has left?

In his prime, Rothwell was a dangerous striker with a sneaky, underrated ground game, but he always had serious issues with his cardio – his 2011 fight with Mark Hunt showed a fighter about as tired as humanly possible inside the Octagon – and while his durability was incredible, his loss to Dos Santos showed a fighter very vulnerable to a better technical striker.

Ivanov probably isn’t that technical striker, but I suspect over the course of 15 minutes, the Bulgarian will probably be able to do more damage to his larger foe, particularly if he can drag him to the ground. I just can’t trust a guy who hasn’t fought in three years, especially as Ivanov looked very durable in his own fight with JDS. Rothwell probably needs a knockout to win here and I simply can’t see him getting it.

The Pick: Ivanov via unanimous decision

#5 Beneil Dariush vs. Drew Dober

Beneil Dariush is extremely dangerous in all areas

I’ve got to admit I was surprised when researching this piece, I checked Dober’s UFC record and found he was 6-4 with one No Contest inside the Octagon – I had no idea he’d been around for that long, to be quite honest. He’s the kind of fighter who’s been floating along on UFC undercards for years, winning some fights, losing others and never really threatening to break into the elite level.

This is largely his chance to do so – while Dariush has had some issues of late, he’s still a very dangerous fighter with some of the best ground skills in the 155lbs division. Most recently he turned around a three-fight skid to beat Thiago Moises in pretty dominant fashion, going back to the tight BJJ game that got him to the cusp of the top 5 back in 2015/16.

Dariush isn’t the greatest athlete in the division – hence his losses to more explosive foes like Edson Barboza and Alexander Hernandez – but he’s got excellent Muay Thai striking, enough to outpoint a technician as good as Rashid Magomedov, and his ground game is pretty much second to none in the division, submission loss to Michael Chiesa notwithstanding.

I might be underrating Dober here but to me this fight is a no-brainer – I just don’t see any way that Dober wins this fight. I don’t think he has an advantage over Dariush in a single area, and unlike Hernandez and Barboza he’s not a better athlete than Dariush either, and doesn’t carry the one-shot KO power that those fighters do either.

More worryingly for Dober, his last two losses have come via submission, as his ground game has always appeared to be somewhat porous – he just hasn’t fought anyone dangerous there since Olivier Aubin-Mercier, basically. For me a Dober win would represent the biggest upset on this card, and I just can’t see it.

Instead, I expect Dariush to hurt Dober standing, get hold of him, take him to the ground and submit him – probably in the first round.

The Pick: Dariush via first round submission

#6 Tim Boetsch vs. Omari Akhmedov

Tim Boetsch has been in the UFC for over a decade now

Time flies, as evidenced by the fact that Tim Boetsch has now been in the UFC for over a decade, and holds a record of 12-11 inside the Octagon. There have been plenty of times in the past – his three-fight skid between 2015 and 2016, for instance – when it looked like ‘The Barbarian’ was finished, and yet here he remains, still the same dangerous wrestle-boxer he’s always been.

Akhmedov was last seen fighting to a draw against Marvin Vettori in December 2017, and he’s been gone for over a year since, despite no issues with USADA or anything like that. Simple injuries have kept the Dagestani out, basically.

A dangerous fighter, Akhmedov loves to attack his opponents with clubbing blows from inside the clinch, and he’s also proven to be pretty solid with his takedowns, too. His issue has traditionally been with his durability – he was knocked out twice during his run at 170lbs and was also hurt pretty badly by Abdul Razak Alhassan in their fight in 2017.

Assuming Father Time hasn’t caught up to Boetsch yet, this should be his fight to lose; he’s far bigger than Akhmedov at 185lbs and he hits extremely hard. He’s also got a tremendous wrestling base, and the only men to really best him on the ground were either phenomenal wrestlers like Matt Hamill and Phil Davis, or world-class BJJ artists such as Ronaldo Jacare and Thales Leites. Akhmedov falls into neither of those categories.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Boetsch make this one tricky for himself – I could see him taking some big shots from Akhmedov and getting himself into trouble – but I think he’s got the toughness and the skill-set to grind the Dagestani down, and probably put him away at around the midway point of the fight.

The Pick: Boetsch via second round TKO

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Sergio Moraes headlines the prelims against Anthony Rocco Martin

All of this weekend’s prelims will air on the ESPN+ streaming service, including the headliner between Welterweights Sergio Moraes and Anthony Rocco Martin. In his previous life as a Lightweight, Martin struggled with top-level BJJ artists – beaten by the likes of Leonardo Santos and Beneil Dariush, neither of whom have the credentials that Moraes does. At Welterweight though Martin looks like a different fighter, a hard-hitting striker who’s maintained the massive strength he held at 155lbs. Moraes is a reckless and dangerous fighter from all areas but his durability isn’t great and so I’m taking Martin to win by TKO.

At Bantamweight, Yana Kunitskaya takes on Marion Reneau. Reneau was looking on route for a title shot before falling to Cat Zingano last year, while Kunitskaya bounced back from her loss to Cris Cyborg by beating Lina Lansberg in a tough fight. I like Kunitskaya here – she’s an excellent grappler who also has a slight size advantage over Reneau, and at 41 Reneau could really start slowing down at any point. I’ll take Kunitskaya via decision.

Julian Erosa faces Grant Dawson in a Featherweight match, with ‘Juicy J’ looking to bounce back from a KO loss to Devonte Smith. Dawson, meanwhile, is a dangerous finisher who won his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series last year to earn this slot. I don’t know too much about Dawson, but I worry about Erosa’s durability and so I’ll take the newcomer to win via KO.

At Heavyweight, TUF veteran Maurice Greene faces off with newcomer Jeff Hughes, curiously in a rematch of a 5-round decision in April 2018 that went Hughes’ way. Greene’s UFC experience could serve him well here but he didn’t show all that much on his TUF run and less than a year after losing to Hughes, I’m not sure I can pick him in good conscience. Hughes via decision is my pick.

Louis Smolka continues his move to the Bantamweight division against fellow former Flyweight Matt Schnell. Schnell is on a two-fight win streak but Smolka has been underrated for a long time in my opinion and I think he’ll use his ground skills to take ‘Danger’ out here probably by TKO.

At Welterweight, Alex Morono takes on Zak Ottow in a fight between two men who have hardly set the UFC world on fire with their fighting styles thus far. I’ll go with Ottow via decision, but in all honesty, it’s difficult to care about this one.

Finally, brawler Alex White returns to face Dan Moret at Lightweight. Moret didn’t show a lot in his UFC debut against Gilbert Burns, but to be fair he wasn’t given a lot of a chance. White, meanwhile, hasn’t won since a November 2017 knockout of Mitch Clarke. I like White here due to his UFC experience and dangerous striking, probably by TKO.