UFC Fight Night 146: Lewis vs. Dos Santos - Predictions and Picks

#3 Tim Means vs. Niko Price

Niko Price is an extremely ruthless finisher

If any fighter has guaranteed excitement in the UFC over the last couple of years, it’s Niko Price. ‘Hybrid’ debuted in the Octagon in December 2016 with an upset arm triangle win over Brandon Thatch and hasn’t looked back since, going 5-2 (although 1 win was overturned due to a positive test for marijuana) and never coming close to reaching the end of a fight. Essentially, he’s the ultimate kill-or-be-killed fighter, as we saw in 2018 when he followed an unorthodox knockout of Randy Brown by being destroyed by Abdul Razak Alhassan in 43 seconds.

Means has been around for years now – ‘The Dirty Bird’ debuted in the UFC as a Lightweight back in 2012 and went 2-2 before being released. 2014 saw him return as a Welterweight – much safer for his long frame to handle – and he’s since gone 8-5 with 1 No Contest and has established himself as a super-tough gatekeeper in the division.

Means’ strength lies in his long reach, particularly inside the clinch, where he uses his long, skeletal limbs to punish his opponents with knees and elbows. A dangerous finisher, once Means has an opponent hurt he tends to put them away – as we saw in his last victory over Ricky Rainey in November.

The issue with Means is that while he’s durable, he often allows himself to be outworked by his opponent. Whether that’s inside the clinch or from the outside doesn’t tend to matter – ‘The Dirty Bird’ just seems to be lulled into a slow-paced fight, and it’s that tendency that saw him lose to Sergio Moraes and Belal Muhammad and gave him difficulties against Alex Garcia, whose own cardio issues are pretty notorious.

The good thing for Means in this fight is that I just can’t see Price looking to lull him into a slow-paced fight. Price is aggressive to a point and it doesn’t matter where the fight goes, he’s looking to be on the attack. That aggression has earned him plenty of wins, but it’s also earned him his UFC losses to Alhassan and Vicente Luque too.

For me this fight depends on how well Means handles Price’s initial – and inevitable – assault. If he can hold up to that kind of pressure then I could see him outworking Price in the clinch and probably getting him out of there with the nasty strikes he used to take out the likes of Sabah Homasi and Dhiego Lima. But he is 35 years old and has been fighting professionally since 2004, meaning Father Time could come knocking any time soon.

I’m taking Price here purely because Means isn’t as hard-hitting as the pair of fighters who have taken ‘Hybrid’ out in the past and I definitely think Means has slowed down over the past couple of years. I could well be proven wrong if Price ends up getting too wild and gets caught, but I just think he’s closer to his prime while Means is closer to the end.

The Pick: Price via first round TKO