UFC Fight Night 146: Lewis vs. Dos Santos - Predictions and Picks

#5 Beneil Dariush vs. Drew Dober

Beneil Dariush is extremely dangerous in all areas

I’ve got to admit I was surprised when researching this piece, I checked Dober’s UFC record and found he was 6-4 with one No Contest inside the Octagon – I had no idea he’d been around for that long, to be quite honest. He’s the kind of fighter who’s been floating along on UFC undercards for years, winning some fights, losing others and never really threatening to break into the elite level.

This is largely his chance to do so – while Dariush has had some issues of late, he’s still a very dangerous fighter with some of the best ground skills in the 155lbs division. Most recently he turned around a three-fight skid to beat Thiago Moises in pretty dominant fashion, going back to the tight BJJ game that got him to the cusp of the top 5 back in 2015/16.

Dariush isn’t the greatest athlete in the division – hence his losses to more explosive foes like Edson Barboza and Alexander Hernandez – but he’s got excellent Muay Thai striking, enough to outpoint a technician as good as Rashid Magomedov, and his ground game is pretty much second to none in the division, submission loss to Michael Chiesa notwithstanding.

I might be underrating Dober here but to me this fight is a no-brainer – I just don’t see any way that Dober wins this fight. I don’t think he has an advantage over Dariush in a single area, and unlike Hernandez and Barboza he’s not a better athlete than Dariush either, and doesn’t carry the one-shot KO power that those fighters do either.

More worryingly for Dober, his last two losses have come via submission, as his ground game has always appeared to be somewhat porous – he just hasn’t fought anyone dangerous there since Olivier Aubin-Mercier, basically. For me a Dober win would represent the biggest upset on this card, and I just can’t see it.

Instead, I expect Dariush to hurt Dober standing, get hold of him, take him to the ground and submit him – probably in the first round.

The Pick: Dariush via first round submission