UFC Fight Night 147: Till vs. Masvidal - Predictions and Picks

#2. Gunnar Nelson vs. Leon Edwards

Gunnar Nelson will look to use his grappling skills to beat Leon Edwards

In a mark of the depth of talent at 170lbs, both of these men are clearly elite-level competitors, and yet they still feel miles away from a title shot in the near future despite excellent records. Edwards, in particular, has been on a hell of a run as of late, beating 6 opponents in a row with his last loss coming at the hands of now-champion Kamaru Usman back in 2015.

Nelson meanwhile returned to action last December with a downright vicious win over Alex Oliveira; after struggling in the first round, ‘Gunni’ took the Brazilian down in the second, split his head open with a savage elbow and then barely needed to apply a rear naked choke in order to coax a tap out from him.

Despite an initial reputation as a hard-hitting kickboxer, Edwards has proven himself to be much more than that in his 5 years inside the UFC. His grappling has come on in leaps and bounds to the point where he’s actually one of the better wrestlers in the division now, and he’s been able to finish both Albert Tumenov and Peter Sobotta – a legitimate black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu – on the ground during his current run.

What worries me for the Birmingham-based fighter in this match is the fact that he still feels like a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none. He’s clearly very dangerous in all areas and his win over Donald Cerrone last June proved his elite-level status, but does he really have enough in his arsenal to outfox a grappler on the level of Nelson – a jiu-jitsu prodigy who’s beaten huge men like Jeff Monson and David Avellan in grappling competitions? Probably not.

Where he could have success against Nelson is on the feet. The Icelandic fighter comes out of a similar karate-based stance as the likes of Lyoto Machida and Stephen Thompson – bouncing in and out with strikes with his chin held pretty high – and while it’s allowed him to surprise opponents like Brandon Thatch and Alan Jouban with hard strikes leading to knockdowns, it’s also opened him up to being hurt; Rick Story dropped him badly in their 2014 fight while Santiago Ponzinibbio outright knocked him out.

So does Nelson have a weak chin? I’m honestly not sure. Story hits extremely hard and Nelson did come back from that knockdown to last the distance, although he was clearly compromised following the shot. And the Ponzinibbio knockout was set up by a pretty clear eye poke, and ‘The Ponz’ has tremendous power in his own right – and is clearly a more deadly striker than Edwards when it comes to power.

Nelson’s best area is definitely his ground game, and while he struggled with finding takedowns in some of his earlier UFC outings, we’ve seen his wrestling develop more and more recently, and he was able to drag Oliveira – who’s been notoriously tricky to outgrapple – to the ground in their fight with few issues. Once on top, Nelson slices through to mount with terrifying ease and has incredible finishing instincts, favoring all manner of chokes to dispose of his opponents.

I like Nelson a lot in this fight; Edwards has never shown thunderous power meaning even if ‘Gunni’ slips up on the feet, he’s not likely to be knocked out by a single shot. And while Edwards has come along tremendously in terms of his ground game, it’s probably not going to be enough to survive Nelson on the ground if the fight goes there.

Nelson’s striking has also developed to the point where he could easily sting Edwards on the feet too, and if he manages that then it wouldn’t surprise me to see Edwards look for a takedown – or become so preoccupied with Nelson’s unorthodox striking that he allows the Icelandic fighter to get inside and hit him with a double leg or a trip.

In the end, I just can’t see Edwards managing to escape Nelson on the ground, and I’m willing to bet that the fight hits the ground at some point. Edwards is an excellent fighter but to me, this is simply a bad match for him.

The Pick: Nelson via second round submission