UFC Fight Night 147: Till vs. Masvidal - Predictions and Picks

#3. Dominick Reyes vs. Volkan Oezdemir

Dominick Reyes might be the best prospect in the UFC at 205lbs

When this fight was announced for this card, I instantly figured it would be the main event, which tells you both how good a fight this is and also how deep this card is for a UK effort. Oezdemir is on a two-fight slide, but prior to that, he’d shot up the rankings with 3 straight victories that handed him a stunning title shot largely out of nowhere. Reyes meanwhile is probably the best prospect in the entire division right now – meaning this fight could definitely have title implications.

Oezdemir in a lot of ways is still a bit of an enigma. What we do know about him is that he carries pretty heavy striking power – he knocked out Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa in ‘No Time’, pun intended – but he’s highly vulnerable on the ground and doesn’t appear to have the deepest gas tank, as we saw him get very tired in his loss last October to Anthony Smith and also in his UFC debut against Ovince St. Preux.

So essentially, could it be the case that Oezdemir simply fades if he can’t get his opponent out of there quickly? Quite possibly. After all – and I don’t like to judge purely on records – but prior to his UFC run he didn’t seem to be a notable top prospect, and more to the point, both Cirkunov and Manuwa have both been shown to have questionable chins in their fights post-Oezdemir.

That’s why this is such a great opportunity for Reyes. If Oezdemir really is a flash-in-the-pan who received a title shot due to a thin division and big knockout wins over vulnerable opponents, then ‘The Devastator’ could find himself in an easier fight than most expected – and could also earn huge plaudits for a win bigger in name value than actual quality.

Reyes has been perfect in his UFC run thus far, going 4-0 with his biggest win coming over Ovince St. Preux. Sure, his first two opponents – Joachim Christensen and Jeremy Kimball – were ridiculously overmatched, but to take out Jared Cannonier with ease, particularly on the feet, was hugely impressive, and to outpoint a tough veteran like OSP was also an excellent sign of his elite-level potential.

At 6’4”, Reyes is a large 205lber with an excellent reach (77”), and he’ll definitely have a size advantage over ‘No Time’ on Saturday. Perhaps the most intriguing thing about him is his ground game, though. Reyes is only a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, but he trains under Joe ‘Daddy’ Stevenson – an excellent grappler, particularly in MMA – and his submission skills looked pretty slick in his win over Kimball.

For me, Reyes has the weapons to win this fight in all areas. We’ve seen him go the distance without losing steam – something we’ve never seen from Oezdemir – and while he’s largely unproven on the ground, we at least have evidence of him doing well there, while Oezdemir looked lost against both Smith and against Daniel Cormier (no shame in that one, obviously).

More to the point, Oezdemir’s knockouts of Cirkunov and Manuwa both came from extremely close-range strikes – something he’ll find hard to do against someone with the length and reach of Reyes. Assuming Reyes doesn’t engage Oezdemir in a close-range brawl, and there’s no reason to suspect he would, then I think he can keep him at distance and abuse him with strikes from there while ‘No Time’ struggles to close the distance.

Whether Reyes can pick up a finish or not is a question mark to me but I’m confident in predicting that he’ll win this fight and make it look dramatically easy, too.

The Pick: Reyes via second-round TKO