UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks

After one of the biggest – and best – UFC shows of 2019 thus far last weekend in the form of UFC 236, this weekend’s show could bring UFC fans back to earth with a bump. The UFC’s second show in Russia following 2018’s effort from Moscow, this Saturday sees UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik come live from St. Petersburg.

Okay, so the main event sounds pretty cool considering it features a late replacement (more on that later) but the rest of the card features a whopping 7 UFC debutants, including 3 on the main card alone, and essentially nothing but the main event can impact on the UFC’s title pictures.

Still, there could be some fun fights on show here, and I’m willing to cross my fingers and check this show out.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik.

#1 Alistair Overeem vs. Alexei Oleinik

Overeem will be looking for his 10th UFC win on Saturday

A battle of two hardened veterans, this is probably – I haven’t checked, but I can’t imagine anything beating it – the most “experienced” main event in UFC history. Between them, Alistair Overeem and Alexei Oleinik – who have been fighting professionally since 1999 and 1996 respectively – have an insane total of 131 fights. Quite how both men remain relevant in the UFC’s Heavyweight title picture is both a mystery – and a testament to the skill and toughness of both men.

At this stage everyone knows about Overeem’s story; the Dutchman was one of the UFC’s biggest acquisitions from the 2011 StrikeForce buyout, but after destroying Brock Lesnar in his promotional debut, he tested positive for elevated testosterone levels and subsequently lost his planned Heavyweight title shot at Junior Dos Santos.

A year on the shelf followed before a run of mixed results had him on the verge of being cut in late 2014, but a reinvention – essentially, ‘The Reem’ shed a lot of his bulk and became a more economic, movement-based striker – saw him go on an impressive run and almost topple Stipe Miocic for the Heavyweight title in 2016. Overeem would come up short in that fight, but has since proven himself to be very relevant in the division, beating Mark Hunt, Fabricio Werdum and Sergei Pavlovich with his only losses being to title contenders Francis Ngannou and Curtis Blaydes.

Oleinik hasn’t had to reinvent himself as such during his UFC run – he’s simply proven people wrong throughout his career inside the Octagon. A plodding, albeit powerful striker, Oleinik relies almost solely on his ground game, which mixes brute strength with slick skills, to win his fights, living up to his ‘Boa Constrictor’ nickname almost perfectly.

Oleinik is a surprising 6-2 inside the UFC including submission wins over Mark Hunt and Travis Browne, and his only losses came to Curtis Blaydes – hardly a shameful result – and to Daniel Omielanczuk in a fight that saw Oleinik come in injured.

Interestingly, this fight was initially supposed to see Overeem take on Alexander Volkov in a battle of strikers, but when Volkov picked up an injury, Oleinik stepped in on about two weeks notice. Will that be a factor here? I doubt it. Oleinik seems like the kind of fighter who comes in with the same gameplan for every fight, and he’s never relied on a deep gas tank to succeed.

After thinking it over, I’m favoring Overeem in this fight. Sure, he’s extremely chinny – he seems to get rocked or hurt in every fight he takes – but Oleinik is probably the most plodding striker he’s faced since Roy Nelson back in 2015. And that was the first example of Overeem’s more varied, combination-based striking game as opposed to his own plodding, bullying style that he relied on in the ‘Ubereem’ days.

Since then ‘The Reem’ has developed that style even further, and he’s now able to move around on the outside and pick his shots to perfection. That got him into trouble against Ngannou, but Oleinik is simply nowhere near as explosive a striker as the Cameroon native. And while Oleinik has that crushing ground game to fall back on, it’s hard to see him deploy that to Overeem.

Firstly, ‘The Reem’ still has pretty excellent takedown defence; he always has done really and hasn’t struggled with wrestlers for years now, and secondly, if the fight does hit the ground it’s not like he’s a mug there either – he’s a fantastic grappler in his own right who has submitted Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belts and even qualified for the Abu Dhabi Grappling Tournament in 2005. To see him give his neck for Oleinik’s trademark Ezekiel Choke would be a jaw-dropper.

In the end, I think this should favor Overeem in all areas; I expect him to evade Oleinik’s clubbing punches, particularly his overhand right, while using counter-strikes such as his knees and kicks to the body as well as his own left hook. Eventually, Oleinik – the older man by 3 years – will run out of gas, and from there I can see ‘The Reem’ finishing him off late.

The Pick: Overeem via third round TKO

#2 Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukayan

Islam Makhachev is one of the UFC's most underrated fighters

Quite how this has ended up in the co-main event slot is anyone’s guess – but to be fair, as a long-time fan of Makhachev’s it’s somewhat of a relief that he wasn’t simply released from the UFC for his part in the infamous UFC 229 brawl. As it goes, I believe that Islam Makhachev wasn’t as involved as fellow UFC fighter Zubaira Tukhugov – hence why he’s not been sanctioned by the Nevada State Athletic Commission – but still, the UFC could’ve cut him to send a message and they didn’t.

Why is that? Probably because he’s one of the most underrated fighters on the roster. Essentially, Makhachev is Khabib-lite; a sambo practitioner just like his more famous teammate, Makhachev is arguably more of a submission artist than the current UFC Lightweight champ, as he’s got 7 tapouts to his name as part of his 16 wins. Those tapouts obviously weren’t over fighters at the elite level, but his recent armbar win over Kajan Johnson, for example, was pretty slick.

Makhachev is also a very effective striker. He’s aggressive, he hits hard and he’s quite willing to trade. We saw him spark veteran Gleison Tibau out in their fight last January, for instance. However, that wild tendency has also caught up with him before – his lone loss in the UFC was at the hands of Adriano Martins, who simply stayed calmer in the pocket and fired a nasty counter that knocked the Dagestani flat.

Thankfully for him, that wild tendency shouldn’t give him many issues on Saturday. Tsarukayan is a UFC newcomer out of Russia, but while he’s got plenty of highlight-reel knockouts on his 13-1 record – including a vicious one over UFC veteran Felipe Oliveira – his footage appears to suggest he’s essentially a lesser version of Makhachev right now.

A powerful wrestler and striker, Arman Tsarukayan appears to be an even wilder kickboxer than Makhachev, meaning that if the two decide to trade, the likelihood of the newcomer catching Makhachev with a clean counter ala Martins is pretty low. More to the point, Tsarukayan’s defensive wrestling appears to have holes, meaning Makhachev is likely to get on top in any grappling exchanges.

At 22 Tsarukayan might have a bright future ahead of him yet, but I can’t see him having a successful UFC debut here and I suspect Makhachev will make short work of him, likely hurting him standing before taking him down for a submission finish.

The Pick: Makhachev via first round submission

#3 Sergei Pavlovich vs. Marcelo Golm

Marcelo Golm will be looking to beat Sergei Pavlovich on Saturday

A pretty hyped signing in 2018, Sergei Pavlovich entered the UFC undefeated at 12-0 with a reputation for incredible power in both his striking and grappling games, and the big Russian was given a top-level opponent in the form of Alistair Overeem, an apparent sign of the UFC’s faith in him. Of course, it didn’t go to plan – ‘The Reem’ took Pavlovich down in the first round and destroyed him with some ruthless ground-and-pound.

This fight looks much more favorable for him. Marcelo Golm received a lot of hype of his own after absolutely dismantling Christian Colombo in his own Octagon debut in 2017, but his subsequent losses against Timothy Johnson and Arjan Singh Bullar revealed an extremely raw fighter with a ton of holes in his game, particularly when it comes to defensive grappling.

That’s not to say that the Brazilian doesn’t stand a chance here; Bhullar is an Olympic-level wrestler capable of holding down a lot of opponents while Johnson is one of the trickiest fighters to defeat in the whole Heavyweight division, even if he’s also one of the most painfully dull to watch. And Golm is an explosive athlete who’s surprisingly quick for a guy of his size – 6’3” and 255lbs – and he clearly hits super-hard.

This will probably come down to whether Pavlovich can force Golm to the ground relatively early on. If he can’t do that then it’s probably anyone’s guess as to who will win, as both men clearly hit hard and judging by his loss to Overeem, Pavlovich perhaps doesn’t take a shot all too well. But based on his pre-UFC fights, it does look like Pavlovich’s offensive wrestling is pretty strong, and really there’s no shame in a loss to Overeem in your UFC debut.

I’m going with Pavlovich here but I’m also giving Golm a definite puncher’s chance. I think the Russian will bring the Brazilian to the ground pretty early on and keep him there probably for the majority of the first round, after which I suspect Golm will tire, and allow Pavlovich to wash, rinse and repeat the same gameplan for a three-round decision.

The Pick: Pavlovich via unanimous decision

#4 Devin Clark vs. Ivan Shtyrkov

Newcomer Ivan Shtyrkov looks like a physical beast

I’ll be honest and say that until I started doing research for this preview, I’d never heard of Shtyrkov before. But after viewing his highlight reel – and checking out the names on his undefeated 15-0 ledger – it’s easy to see why the UFC have signed him. Simply put, going by said highlights, ‘The Ural Hulk’ is an absolute beast.

The Russian is huge for 205lbs, probably one of the most muscular fighters you’re likely to find at Light-Heavyweight, and everything he does comes with apparently insane power. UFC veterans Thiago Silva, Fabio Maldonado, Antonio ‘Bigfoot’ Silva and Jeff Monson all count themselves amongst his victims, and while all of them are miles past their prime now, to take out wily veterans with ease like Shtyrkov has done is still somewhat impressive.

More impressively, ‘The Ural Hulk’ doesn’t appear to be too one-dimensional, as he’s got a lot of submissions on his record and he appears to have some powerful offensive wrestling, too. Essentially, he appears to be a very similar fighter to Ion Cutelaba, and while the Moldovan fighter has had some issues in the Octagon, he’s also one of the best prospects in the Light-Heavyweight division right now.

The issue, however, is that it’s hard to trust a muscular Russian fighter in his UFC debut after being burned in the past by the failure of the likes of Konstantin Erokhin, who looked equally physically imposing and then was horribly exposed as being nowhere near UFC level once he got into the Octagon. And of course, any fighter coming in looking that way and suddenly having to pass USADA tests will raise eyebrows.

If nothing else though, Shtyrkov appears to have been given a stylistically good opponent for his UFC debut. Clark came into the UFC as primarily a wrestling-based fighter, and he used that game to defeat Josh Stansbury, Jake Collier, and Mike Rodriguez. But his striking appears to be rudimentary at best, he was submitted with surprising ease by Jan Blachowicz in their fight, and he doesn’t look like a great natural athlete.

More worryingly, Clark was violently knocked out by both Aleksandar Rakic and Alex Nicholson, largely because he found himself walking into punches that he seemingly never saw coming. Against an explosive power puncher like Shtyrkov, that could well lead to his doom.

I think Shtyrkov will probably run into issues in the UFC once he steps up in competition – against a veteran like Glover Teixeira or a grinder like Corey Anderson, for instance – but this looks like a winnable debut for him and I think he’ll probably pull it out in highlight reel fashion – perhaps winning a bonus along the way.

The Pick: Shtyrkov via first round knockout

#5 Roxanne Modafferi vs. Antonina Shevchenko

Antonina Shevchenko will look to use her striking to pick Roxanne Modafferi apart

This fight could actually have more impact on the Women’s Flyweight title picture than people think – or well, it probably would if Shevchenko wasn’t the sister of current champion Valentina and will likely never want to challenge for the belt while her sister holds it. Essentially then, she sits in an odd position of a rising prospect who will end up hitting her ceiling pretty soon.

Roxanne Modafferi meanwhile remains one of the most popular fighters in the division thanks to her likable, happy personality – hence the ‘Happy Warrior’ nickname – and due to the developing nature of Flyweight, she’s probably not that far off from another title shot after coming up short in her attempt to win the title against Nicco Montano in the fight to decide the inaugural champion in 2017.

The problem for Modafferi, however, has always been a massive lack of strength and natural athleticism – something that she’s admitted herself in interviews – and despite showing some better striking skills and a more powerful top game in her 2018 victory over Barb Honchak, the old holes in her game were opened back up in a one-sided loss to Sijara Eubanks in November.

The question for this fight is whether Antonina Shevchenko can translate her striking style – which is largely based around winning points through volume rather than huge power shots – into something that can pick Modafferi apart without risking being dragged to the ground and potentially beaten from there due to Modafferi’s strong top game and submission skills.

In her UFC debut against Ji Yeon Kim, ‘Pantera’ did show some skills in the clinch, but Modafferi is definitely a step up in competition and more to the point, a lot of the time it was Kim who was the one initiating the clinches. If Shevchenko can’t prevent Modafferi from clinching, then it could prove to be trouble for her.

With that said, given the gap in athleticism between the two I can’t help but think even if Modafferi can get into some favorable positions here, Shevchenko will be able to muscle or explode her way out, and if she can keep the fight at range then I’d say it’s no contest given Roxy’s somewhat robotic striking style in comparison to Shevchenko’s slick range kickboxing. I’m going with Shevchenko via decision, but perhaps with a few scares along the way.

The Pick: Shevchenko via unanimous decision

#6 Krzysztof Jotko vs. Alen Amedovski

Krzysztof Jotko is currently on a 3-fight losing streak

It’s pretty wild to think that it was only a couple of years ago that Jotko looked like a genuine title contender at 185lbs – the Polish fighter had put together a 6-1 record in the UFC and battered former title challenger Thales Leites in their fight, even coming out on top in the grappling exchanges.

Then 2017 happened and Jotko was blanketed by David Branch in one of the worst televised fights of the year, and was then knocked out by Uriah Hall in a stirring comeback from the former TUF finalist. A third knockout loss to Brad Tavares followed last year – leaving Jotko with his back to the proverbial wall coming into this fight.

Thankfully for the Polish fighter, this looks like an inherently winnable fight for him. Initially pegged to fight a potentially dangerous debutant in the unbeaten Roman Kopylov, he’s now faced with a Bellator veteran in Macedonia’s Amedovski, another UFC newcomer but not one who appears to be as big a challenge as Kopylov would’ve been.

Sure, Amedovski has 8 KO’s in 8 fights, has only been out of the first round twice and has actually finished 4 fights in under a minute, but judging by his footage, his opponents haven’t been up to a lot and worryingly for him, even those opponents have had some success grappling with him before succumbing to his knockout power.

Assuming Jotko can avoid the initial rush that Amedovski should bring – and even that’s a bit of a question mark I’d say given the usual “Octagon shock” that newcomers can often suffer with – I think he can drag the Macedonian to the ground and deal with him pretty handily there.

The Pick: Jotko via first round TKO

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Light-Heavyweight prospect Michal Oleksiejczuk highlights the prelim card

Like the main card, all of Saturday’s prelims will air on ESPN+, meaning if things go badly, this could be a slog of a card to get through. Hopefully that won’t be the case, though! Headlining the prelims is a Bantamweight clash between newcomers Movsar Evloev and Sung Woo Choi. This looks like a fight that favours Evloev to me; Choi has far less experience against dangerous opposition and Evloev looks like a dangerous prospect with a hell of a takedown and top game. I’ll take Evloev via a pretty clear-cut decision, or a potential late stoppage here.

At Welterweight, Sultan Aliev returns to face longtime veteran Keita Nakamura. It’s a tricky fight to pick given Nakamura is 16 years into his professional career and far past his prime, while Aliev is not the best athlete and is somewhat of a plodding grinder. Despite Nakamura’s advanced age and shopworn nature I like him to win this one; Aliev isn’t an explosive fighter like Anthony Martin, Elizeu Zaleski or Tom Breese, and I think Nakamura can drag him to the ground and deal with him there, probably catching a submission.

In another Welterweight fight, veteran Alexander Yakovlev faces newcomer Alex da Silva Coelho, a late replacement for Teemu Packalen. Silva Coelho has a gaudy record – 20-1 – but he hasn’t really fought anyone of note and while Yakovlev hasn’t fought since 2016, I could definitely see him grinding a decision out over the newcomer. I’d give Silva Coelho a puncher’s chance due to his apparent athletic ability, but I’m going for Yakovlev here.

At Heavyweight, Marcin Tybura faces Shamil Abdurakhimov in a battle of usually slow-paced grinders. I can’t say I’m excited to see this one based on their previous outings inside the Octagon, but I like Tybura to pick up the win based on his superior speed and a more varied striking game. Tybura by decision is my pick.

Michal Oleksiejczuk is a surprising choice for a prelim fight given his last win came violently over Gian Villante, but indeed, he’ll face Gadzhimurad Antigulov at 205lbs in the second fight on this card. A grappler by trade, Antigulov was last seen in a violent KO loss to Ion Cutelaba, and I worry for him here given Oleksiejczuk’s clear striking skills and power. Oleksiejczuk’s ground game is a bit of a question mark, but I think he can take out Antigulov before it comes to that. My pick is Oleksiejczuk via first round knockout.

Finally at Lightweight, flashy newcomer Rafael Fiziev takes on a formerly hyped prospect in Magomed Mustafaev. An incredibly powerful grappler, Mustafaev ran through Piotr Hallmann and Joe Proctor with his top game, but then took a taste of his own medicine from Kevin Lee and hasn’t fought since. Fiziev is an unbelievably explosive striker, but I just don’t think he has the experience to deal with a grappler like Mustafaev, assuming the Russian hasn’t completely lost it during his time off. I’ll go with Mustafaev via decision.