UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks

#2 Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukayan

Islam Makhachev is one of the UFC's most underrated fighters

Quite how this has ended up in the co-main event slot is anyone’s guess – but to be fair, as a long-time fan of Makhachev’s it’s somewhat of a relief that he wasn’t simply released from the UFC for his part in the infamous UFC 229 brawl. As it goes, I believe that Islam Makhachev wasn’t as involved as fellow UFC fighter Zubaira Tukhugov – hence why he’s not been sanctioned by the Nevada State Athletic Commission – but still, the UFC could’ve cut him to send a message and they didn’t.

Why is that? Probably because he’s one of the most underrated fighters on the roster. Essentially, Makhachev is Khabib-lite; a sambo practitioner just like his more famous teammate, Makhachev is arguably more of a submission artist than the current UFC Lightweight champ, as he’s got 7 tapouts to his name as part of his 16 wins. Those tapouts obviously weren’t over fighters at the elite level, but his recent armbar win over Kajan Johnson, for example, was pretty slick.

Makhachev is also a very effective striker. He’s aggressive, he hits hard and he’s quite willing to trade. We saw him spark veteran Gleison Tibau out in their fight last January, for instance. However, that wild tendency has also caught up with him before – his lone loss in the UFC was at the hands of Adriano Martins, who simply stayed calmer in the pocket and fired a nasty counter that knocked the Dagestani flat.

Thankfully for him, that wild tendency shouldn’t give him many issues on Saturday. Tsarukayan is a UFC newcomer out of Russia, but while he’s got plenty of highlight-reel knockouts on his 13-1 record – including a vicious one over UFC veteran Felipe Oliveira – his footage appears to suggest he’s essentially a lesser version of Makhachev right now.

A powerful wrestler and striker, Arman Tsarukayan appears to be an even wilder kickboxer than Makhachev, meaning that if the two decide to trade, the likelihood of the newcomer catching Makhachev with a clean counter ala Martins is pretty low. More to the point, Tsarukayan’s defensive wrestling appears to have holes, meaning Makhachev is likely to get on top in any grappling exchanges.

At 22 Tsarukayan might have a bright future ahead of him yet, but I can’t see him having a successful UFC debut here and I suspect Makhachev will make short work of him, likely hurting him standing before taking him down for a submission finish.

The Pick: Makhachev via first round submission