UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks

#3 Sergei Pavlovich vs. Marcelo Golm

Marcelo Golm will be looking to beat Sergei Pavlovich on Saturday

A pretty hyped signing in 2018, Sergei Pavlovich entered the UFC undefeated at 12-0 with a reputation for incredible power in both his striking and grappling games, and the big Russian was given a top-level opponent in the form of Alistair Overeem, an apparent sign of the UFC’s faith in him. Of course, it didn’t go to plan – ‘The Reem’ took Pavlovich down in the first round and destroyed him with some ruthless ground-and-pound.

This fight looks much more favorable for him. Marcelo Golm received a lot of hype of his own after absolutely dismantling Christian Colombo in his own Octagon debut in 2017, but his subsequent losses against Timothy Johnson and Arjan Singh Bullar revealed an extremely raw fighter with a ton of holes in his game, particularly when it comes to defensive grappling.

That’s not to say that the Brazilian doesn’t stand a chance here; Bhullar is an Olympic-level wrestler capable of holding down a lot of opponents while Johnson is one of the trickiest fighters to defeat in the whole Heavyweight division, even if he’s also one of the most painfully dull to watch. And Golm is an explosive athlete who’s surprisingly quick for a guy of his size – 6’3” and 255lbs – and he clearly hits super-hard.

This will probably come down to whether Pavlovich can force Golm to the ground relatively early on. If he can’t do that then it’s probably anyone’s guess as to who will win, as both men clearly hit hard and judging by his loss to Overeem, Pavlovich perhaps doesn’t take a shot all too well. But based on his pre-UFC fights, it does look like Pavlovich’s offensive wrestling is pretty strong, and really there’s no shame in a loss to Overeem in your UFC debut.

I’m going with Pavlovich here but I’m also giving Golm a definite puncher’s chance. I think the Russian will bring the Brazilian to the ground pretty early on and keep him there probably for the majority of the first round, after which I suspect Golm will tire, and allow Pavlovich to wash, rinse and repeat the same gameplan for a three-round decision.

The Pick: Pavlovich via unanimous decision