UFC Fight Night 149: Overeem vs. Oleinik - Predictions and Picks

#5 Roxanne Modafferi vs. Antonina Shevchenko

Antonina Shevchenko will look to use her striking to pick Roxanne Modafferi apart

This fight could actually have more impact on the Women’s Flyweight title picture than people think – or well, it probably would if Shevchenko wasn’t the sister of current champion Valentina and will likely never want to challenge for the belt while her sister holds it. Essentially then, she sits in an odd position of a rising prospect who will end up hitting her ceiling pretty soon.

Roxanne Modafferi meanwhile remains one of the most popular fighters in the division thanks to her likable, happy personality – hence the ‘Happy Warrior’ nickname – and due to the developing nature of Flyweight, she’s probably not that far off from another title shot after coming up short in her attempt to win the title against Nicco Montano in the fight to decide the inaugural champion in 2017.

The problem for Modafferi, however, has always been a massive lack of strength and natural athleticism – something that she’s admitted herself in interviews – and despite showing some better striking skills and a more powerful top game in her 2018 victory over Barb Honchak, the old holes in her game were opened back up in a one-sided loss to Sijara Eubanks in November.

The question for this fight is whether Antonina Shevchenko can translate her striking style – which is largely based around winning points through volume rather than huge power shots – into something that can pick Modafferi apart without risking being dragged to the ground and potentially beaten from there due to Modafferi’s strong top game and submission skills.

In her UFC debut against Ji Yeon Kim, ‘Pantera’ did show some skills in the clinch, but Modafferi is definitely a step up in competition and more to the point, a lot of the time it was Kim who was the one initiating the clinches. If Shevchenko can’t prevent Modafferi from clinching, then it could prove to be trouble for her.

With that said, given the gap in athleticism between the two I can’t help but think even if Modafferi can get into some favorable positions here, Shevchenko will be able to muscle or explode her way out, and if she can keep the fight at range then I’d say it’s no contest given Roxy’s somewhat robotic striking style in comparison to Shevchenko’s slick range kickboxing. I’m going with Shevchenko via decision, but perhaps with a few scares along the way.

The Pick: Shevchenko via unanimous decision