UFC Fight Night 150: Jacare vs. Hermansson - Predictions and Picks

The UFC’s latest event takes place from Fort Lauderdale, Florida this Saturday, and interestingly enough it’s the first UFC show under the ESPN banner to be moved from the ESPN network onto the ESPN+ streaming service.

The reason for this? Most likely the switch in the main event, as a Middleweight fight between title contenders Yoel Romero and Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza was scrapped due to an injury to Romero, and replaced by a fight between Souza and the lower-ranked Jack Hermansson.

It’s still a relatively interesting card though, with some solid fights and entertaining contenders up and down the night.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 150: Jacare vs. Hermansson.

#1 Jacare Souza vs. Jack Hermansson

Jacare is coming off a big win over Chris Weidman

Okay, so let’s be fair to the UFC to begin things; when Yoel Romero was forced out of this fight, it was always going to be hard for the promotion to find a suitable replacement, especially given Jacare’s a veteran who’s faced the majority of the upper echelon of the Middleweight division already.

And so Hermansson – who’s on a 3-fight winning streak and is coming off the biggest win of his career over David Branch – was as decent a choice as any.

With that said, to me this looks unfortunately like a major squash match in favour of Jacare. I’m not stating that Hermansson is a bad fighter by any means; he’s ranked #10 in the world right now and he’s improved both his striking and grappling hugely since arriving in the UFC in 2016. And his lanky frame – 6’1” with a 77” reach – makes him a tricky opponent for a lot of 185lbers inside the UFC.

The problem for him here though is that he’s facing Jacare, who remains probably the best submission threat in the Middleweight division, and stylistically it’s hard for me to imagine a way in which Hermansson can win this fight.

I just don’t think Hermansson will want to grapple with the Brazilian point blank – he’s best from top position, but while his grappling has improved to the point where he was able to tap out Branch in their fight, Jacare is on a whole different level to that.

We’re also less than a year removed from seeing Hermansson largely dominated by Thales Leites – essentially a poor man’s Jacare – on the ground, although he did recover to TKO Leites late on.

Could he outstrike Jacare? Theoretically, I guess so. He does have a pretty massive reach advantage of 5”, and if he could find a way to keep Souza at the end of his punches then it could be tricky for Jacare to get inside to take him down.

With that said though, Jacare’s striking has developed massively over the years and outside of Robert Whittaker, it’s hard to name an opponent who’s actually outstruck him recently. And his most recent win was by knockout and came against Chris Weidman, who I’d argue is a better striker than Hermansson and he also has a 78” reach, one inch longer than the Swedish fighter.

Jacare’s chin is also rock-solid, with his only TKO loss since arriving in the UFC coming against Whittaker.

Hermansson is a solid underdog in this fight purely because Jacare could begin to slow down at any time given he’s now 39 years old and has been around for years, but I just don’t see ‘The Joker’ pulling off the upset this weekend.

I don’t think his defensive grappling will be enough to defend Jacare’s takedowns and I’m not sure he’s got enough in his bag of tricks to survive the Brazilian on the ground. I think this one goes pretty quickly and I’ll take Jacare via first-round submission, probably an armbar.

The Pick: Jacare via first round submission

#2 Greg Hardy vs. Dmitrii Smoliakov

Greg Hardy's UFC debut didn't go to plan

Quite how Greg Hardy has been given another co-main event is a mystery to me after his disastrous UFC debut in January. The former NFL star faced Allen Crowder in that fight, and while he had some success early on using pure brute force striking, he quickly got into difficulty when it turned out Crowder wasn’t as easy to knock out as his pre-UFC opponents.

By the second round Hardy looked spent while Crowder began to take over, and in the end it was a ludicrous illegal knee that turned the tide and wound up earning Hardy a disqualification.

Essentially, Hardy just didn’t look ready for even the lower level of UFC competition. But the promotion evidently still sees him as someone with star potential – despite all the bad publicity surrounding his past domestic violence charges – and so here we are.

Quite how Smoliakov compares to Crowder as an opponent for Hardy is difficult to say. Both men have similar records – Crowder was 9-3 when he faced Hardy and Smoliakov is 8-2 – and like Crowder, Smoliakov is coming into his fight with Hardy without a UFC win to his name. And in all honesty, ‘The Lifeguard’ looked terrible in both of his Octagon appearances, where he lost to Cyril Asker and Luis Henrique respectively.

But the fact is that both of Smoliakov’s UFC losses came on the ground, and in both fights – while he never truly showed any dominance or anything of the sort – he wasn’t doing terribly on his feet before his opponents got him down. We know that Hardy isn’t likely to take him down – his ground game looked diabolical against Crowder – so can he use his brute force punches to knock the Russian out?

Quite possibly I guess? Smoliakov’s chin is a total mystery and Hardy definitely hits like a ton of bricks, but we saw against Crowder that his gas tank is pretty bad and he appeared to run out of steam in his punches pretty quickly. Judging on what I’ve seen, Smoliakov isn’t going to be mistaken for Francis Ngannou any time soon, but he seems to be a competent technical striker at least.

For me this is likely to go one of two ways; either Hardy will knock Smoliakov out very early on with probably his first flurry, or Smoliakov will weather an early storm, begin to hurt the former NFL player and then take him down and finish him there. I’m going for the latter as I just wasn’t impressed by Hardy in January at all.

The Pick: Smoliakov via first round TKO

#3 Alex Oliveira vs. Mike Perry

Mike Perry is one of the UFC's most exciting prospects

Okay, so this Welterweight tilt sounds like a ton of fun. Sure, both men are coming off losses, and Perry is taking the fight on relatively late notice as a replacement for Jingliang Li, but who cares really? The fact is that both Oliveira and Perry are highly reliable action fighters, with 14 UFC wins between them with just 3 of those victories going the distance.

The UFC were once looking to push Perry as a potential contender, giving him showcase fights on FOX against Alan Jouban, Santiago Ponzinibbio and Max Griffin, but unfortunately for the promotion ‘Platinum’ ended up on the wrong end of the decision in all three of those fights.

Essentially, by the midway point of last year it appeared that Perry was the modern-day equivalent of Phil Baroni – a massively entertaining and charismatic power puncher who was also hugely limited as a fighter.

Perry appeared to show signs of turning that around though when he outpointed the tough Paul Felder last July, but then slipped back into his wild old ways with his submission loss to Donald Cerrone in November.

He’s clearly got talent – his chin is made of granite, he throws with ludicrous power and his leg kicks are also powerful – but he still tends to get overly aggressive in his striking and his ground game appears to be porous.

Oliveira to be fair is an equally wild striker at times, although I’d say he’s perhaps a little more technical than Perry. What worries me for Perry in this fight though is that ‘Cowboy’ is a very dangerous submission grappler, and his takedowns aren’t half bad either.

He was submitted by Gunnar Nelson in his last fight, but there’s no shame in that, and anyone who can tap out Carlos Condit has to have some serious submission skill.

What makes this fight is interesting is the fact that Oliveira’s been open to wild exchanges before, most notably in his fight with Yancy Medeiros – a legendary brawl that saw both men hurt badly before Medeiros finally took Oliveira out in the third round.

And while he’s got knockout power – we saw him destroy Ryan LaFlare with one punch for instance – I’m not sure it’d be smart for anyone to trade off with Perry punch-for-punch.

I’m leaning towards Oliveira here as he’s simply a more varied striker and he’s got a massive advantage on the ground, plus I do think he could take at least one or two big shots from Perry without being knocked out.

Perry might surprise us with a more varied attack and if that’s the case this might be a close fight, but even then I think Oliveira’s got the size and skill to get him to the ground and take him out there.

The Pick: Oliveira via third round submission

#4 Glover Teixeira vs. Ion Cutelaba

Ion Cutelaba is looking to break into the upper echelon of the division by beating Glover Teixeira

This Light-Heavyweight fight was supposed to go down back in January on the UFC’s first card on ESPN+, but Cutelaba had to withdraw due to an injury and Teixeira essentially squashed his replacement, the overmatched Karl Roberson, who was coming up from 185lbs for the first time in the UFC. This one looks like a far nastier fight for the Brazilian veteran, as Cutelaba definitely has the skills to take him out.

Teixeira has been in the UFC now for years – since 2012 to be exact – and essentially since his debut he’s been an upper-echelon fighter at 205lbs, even earning an unsuccessful title shot against Jon Jones in 2014.

His skills have largely remained the same over the years – he’s an excellent boxer with heavy hands, and on the ground he’s got excellent submission skills, particularly from the top position – but what’s changed recently has all to do with his age, basically.

The Brazilian remains one of the most skilled men in the division, but at 39 years old now he’s slowed down a lot. Other longtime veterans – Shogun Rua for example – have suffered more in terms of durability, an area that Teixeira still appears to be decent in, but it’s definitely the case that Teixeira is now a plodding fighter who’s more open to both being hit and being taken down.

His performance against Corey Anderson was perhaps the most worrying example of that.

That’s why I worry for him against Cutelaba. ‘The Hulk’ is a somewhat limited fighter, in that his striking defence leaves a lot to be desired and I’m not really sure how good his defence on the ground is either, but one thing is for certain about the native of Moldova – he hits incredibly hard.

2017 for instance saw him switch out the lights of Henrique da Silva in violent fashion, and when he returned from an odd USADA suspension for ‘ozone therapy’ (don’t ask!) in 2018, he did the same thing to Gadzhimurad Antigulov. This is a man, of course, who has 11 KO’s or TKO’s in his 14 wins.

Can he knock out Teixeira, then? I actually think he can. Teixeira has been finished twice in his UFC career – once by Anthony Johnson and once by Alexander Gustafsson, and that one was set up by an eye poke.

But as I noted earlier, Teixeira has slowed down a lot since then, to the point where Corey Anderson – a much less explosive fighter than Cutelaba – was able to tag him with heavy punches in their fight.

Cutelaba then might be limited, but he’s the most explosive athlete that Teixeira has faced since Johnson in 2016, and more to the point he’s an excellent wrestler, giving the noted grappler Misha Cirkunov a lot of problems in their fight a couple of years back.

If Teixeira can take him down then this is 100% a winnable fight for him – he’s still deadly from top position and could either TKO him or submit him – but I’m not sure he can muscle the Moldovan to the ground.

This is a risky pick admittedly – Teixeira is much more proven at the top level in the UFC and is still dangerous – but I just think Cutelaba is going to be too quick, too hard-hitting and too explosive for him. I think this goes quickly and ends with Teixeira unconscious.

The Pick: Cutelaba via first round KO

#5 John Lineker vs. Cory Sandhagen

John Lineker is one of the UFC's most dangerous strikers

The main event here might be a bit lacking, but you can’t say the UFC hasn’t put together some pretty awesome fights for this card, this Bantamweight match being one of them.

Lineker hasn’t been seen since May 2018 but remains a top contender in the division, as well as one of the most exciting fighters on the roster. And Sandhagen is a top prospect who’s 3-0 in the UFC, beating longtime contender Iuri Alcantara last year.

Judging on both men’s styles, this should be a pretty exciting striking war for as long as it lasts. It may even go the distance, but unfortunately for Sandhagen – who really is an excellent prospect – I think he’s in over his head here and I can’t help but favour Lineker.

Firstly, Lineker’s only losses since his UFC debut have come to Louis Gaudinot and Ali Bagautinov at Flyweight, and then TJ Dillashaw at Bantamweight, and it’s notable that none of them – even Dillashaw – really outstruck the heavy-handed Brazilian.

Dillashaw did have some success on the feet with ‘Hands of Stone’, but a lot of that was due to the threat of his takedown – something Sandhagen doesn’t really offer.

Outside of that then, Lineker has beaten the likes of Michael McDonald, John Dodson, Rob Font and Brian Kelleher, all with his striking. He rarely throws kicks but he chains punches together incredibly well, throwing brutal hooks to the head and body with extreme prejudice.

He’s got incredible punching power for a smaller fighter but more to the point, his chin is sturdy too and I can’t remember him being really hurt, let alone knocked down.

Sandhagen is definitely dangerous but judging by his footage he’s primarily a striker himself, and while he does have some ground skills, it’s not like Lineker is terrible on the ground or anything like that, and he’s tricky to take down, too.

In the end I just can’t see Sandhagen being the guy to outstrike Lineker – he’s good, but is he really going to be better than Dodson or McDonald?

Sandhagen looks tough and so he might last for a couple of rounds, but in the end I think he’ll end up wilting under the power and pressure that ‘Hands of Stone’ brings, and even if he lasts the distance, it’ll be a one-sided decision in favour of the Brazilian.

The Pick: Lineker via unanimous decision

#6 Roosevelt Roberts vs. Thomas Gifford

Roosevelt Roberts' fight with Thomas Gifford is a strange choice for the main card

I have no idea how this fight has ended up on the main card, to be honest. Not when the likes of Andrei Arlovski, Carla Esparza, Ben Saunders and Jim Miller are on the prelims. Sure, Roberts looked excellent in his UFC debut last year, but I’m not sure that a fight with a newcomer like Gifford really belongs on a UFC main card just yet.

For those who missed Roberts’ debut, it was really impressive. A hugely lanky fighter for 155lbs, Roberts stands at 6’1”, and lives up to his ‘Predator’ nickname thanks to his dreadlocked hair.

Faced with veteran Darrel Horcher, Roberts never allowed his opponent to get comfortable in the fight, and eventually finished him off with a nasty high-elbow guillotine choke.

His footage appears to show a fighter comfortable fighting from range, but also from inside the clinch, where he uses his long arms to deliver nasty elbows as well as securing bodylock takedowns. On the ground, Roberts’ favoured weapon appears to be the guillotine – hardly a surprise given other fighters with long limbs have also used it to great effect.

Gifford has been around a long time – since 2011 – but his record is nothing special and from his available footage, nothing really stands out either. He’s a decent striker, decent grappler but he’s also clearly beatable in both areas too, as his record of 14-7 shows. Essentially, the most notable thing about him is the fact that he resembles Edge of WWE fame.

I guess Gifford could win this fight as he’s more experienced than Roberts, and really, Roberts is a massively unproven fighter despite his UFC debut win. But I’m leaning towards the idea that the UFC sees Roberts as a potential star for the future and Gifford is likely a hand-picked opponent to push that idea forward. I’ll take Roberts in this one.

The Pick: Roberts via second round submission

#7 The Prelims: ESPN card

Veteran Ben Saunders headlines the prelim card

In a baffling move, the top half of the preliminary card for this show is set to be broadcast on the ESPN network, while the main card is instead on the ESPN+ streaming service. Doesn’t matter for a UK fan like myself, but it still doesn’t make a lot of sense!

At the top of the prelim card we’ve got a Welterweight match between Ben Saunders and Takashi Sato. Saunders is one of the longest-standing UFC veterans on this card – his first stint there began back in 2007 and he’s got 18 Octagon bouts to his name – while Sato, a veteran of Pancrase, is making his UFC debut.

I’ve always liked Saunders but I worry about him here; his durability seems largely shot at this stage and Sato appears to hit hard. Saunders could pull off a submission I guess, but I think this ends badly for him and I’m going with Sato via TKO.

At Heavyweight, former UFC champ Andrei Arlovski takes on prospect Augusto Sakai. After righting the ship somewhat in 2018 with a couple of wins, Arlovski has been back on a slide recently, losing three in a row – although he hasn’t been finished at least.

Sakai made a successful UFC debut last year by taking out Chase Sherman, but this is a big step up for him. Sakai might be able to catch Arlovski with something heavy, but I actually think Andrei’s wrestling can take him to a decision here.

Another former UFC champion returns at Strawweight, as Carla Esparza faces newcomer Virna Jandiroba. Jandiroba – the current Invicta champion at Strawweight – is unbeaten at 14-0 and definitely looks skilled, but this is a huge step up for her, particularly as she’s taking the fight on late notice as a replacement for Livinha Souza.

Esparza might be on a two-fight slide, but she probably should’ve been given the nod against Claudia Gadelha, and Tatiana Suarez might be the worst match for her in the whole division. I like Esparza to outgrapple the newcomer for a decision in this one.

At Lightweight, Gilbert Burns takes on late replacement Mike Davis after Eric Wisely withdrew with an injury just days ago. Burns has never quite lived up to the early promise he showed, but I can’t see a late replacement who’s 6-1 and hasn’t fought anyone on that level causing him too many problems. I like Burns via first round submission here.

#8 The Prelims: ESPN2 card

Can longtime veteran Jim Miller pick up one more UFC win?

For a Fight Night card, even the ‘early’ ESPN2 prelims are pretty good here. Headlining the portion will be a Lightweight fight between longtime veteran Jim Miller and former TUF contestant Jason Gonzalez.

Miller has been struggling as of late, losing 5 of his last 6, but to be fair none of the opponents that beat him were anything below top 15-level contenders, and Gonzalez’s grappling looked porous in his last fight, a loss to Gregor Gillespie. I think Miller could have a couple of scares here but I’ll take him to win a decision.

At Strawweight, Jodie Esquibel takes on late replacement Angela Hill, who stepped in when Jessica Penne was forced out. Hill has taken the fight on around 9 days notice but I still favour her lanky striking style to take out the much shorter Esquibel, who struggled to get a handle on both Jessica Aguilar and Karolina Kowalkiewicz. Hill by decision is my pick.

Finally, at Welterweight Court McGee returns to face Dhiego Lima. At 34 years old and almost a decade into his UFC career it feels like McGee’s way past his best now, but despite Lima’s skills I worry about him in this fight due to his dodgy chin. I’ll take McGee via TKO, probably after coming from behind.