UFC Fight Night 151: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy - Predictions and Picks

The UFC returns to Canada this weekend with UFC Fight Night 151: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy, from Ottowa, Ontario. It’s an interesting card – as per usual for these ESPN+ Fight Nights, it’s relatively low on name value, but like last week’s show from Florida, some of the fights that Sean Shelby and Mick Maynard have put together sound wildly exciting.

Like the majority of UFC cards these days there’s been plenty of injuries that have affected and changed the card, but thankfully – at the time of writing at least! – there have been no changes at the top.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 151: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy.

#1 Donald Cerrone vs. Al Iaquinta

Donald Cerrone might be the most exciting fighter in the UFC today

Well, so much for all those rumours of a Donald Cerrone vs. Conor McGregor clash. Realistically that fight was never going to happen – Cowboy is an all-time great in my opinion and is arguably the most exciting fighter in UFC history, but I don’t think he’s a big enough draw to entice Conor in – but with a win this weekend, you could perhaps make an argument for Cerrone deserving the next title shot after Dustin Poirier and Khabib Nurmagomedov face off later in 2019.

At any rate, this is a pretty great fight in its own right, particularly when you consider that Al Iaquinta defeated Kevin Lee – who’s looked like a monster recently – in his last fight. It’s also a clash of two of the most fascinating personalities in the UFC – the laid-back, company man Cerrone against ‘Ragin’ Al’, the outspoken firecracker who’s been pushing against his employers for the past couple of years.

So who comes out on top? I’m honestly struggling for a pick here and it’s for a number of different reasons. Stylistically speaking, I’m favouring Cowboy. Iaquinta is a pretty straightforward fighter; he’s almost purely a boxer in a striking sense and while he does throw some excellent combinations, has a tremendous grasp of footwork and movement, and throws with a lot of power, he’s also proven to be a bit susceptible to opponents who can either catch him continually from range.

As a grappler, he’s pretty straightforward too. Iaquinta is a stout wrestler with some extremely good takedown defense, and while he’s got some decent takedowns of his own, it’s rare to see him use them. The fact that he went the distance with Khabib Nurmagomedov and stopped the Dagestani from really dominating him on the ground should tell you a lot, but he also gave up position to Lee and got into trouble on numerous occasions, and two of his three UFC losses came by submission.

Cowboy meanwhile has fought enough times inside the Octagon for everyone to know pretty much exactly what he looks to do. Essentially the definition of an eight-limbed striker, Cerrone throws incredible combinations from all kinds of angles. His favored weapons tend to be leg kicks, head kicks and jabs, and he’s also fond of throwing a step-in knee at his opponents, particularly on the counter.

Cerrone has become an underrated wrestler over the years, as he’s now more than capable of taking opponents down, but where he’s most dangerous in his grappling is arguably from his guard. Sure, his takedown defense isn’t the best, but does it matter all that much when you’re so dangerous from your back, as we saw when he submitted Mike Perry with a nasty armbar late last year? Basically, anyone with 17 submission wins on their ledger is not to be underestimated on the ground.

All that makes it sound like Cerrone’s a fighter with no weaknesses, but that’s not entirely true. Traditionally, Cerrone’s always had two problems. One is that he’s usually a slow starter, and so opponents can often open up a lead on him – or finish him off – before he’s even kicked into second gear. And the second, and more worrying one, is that he finds himself in trouble if an opponent can really corral him and back him up. That isn’t easy to do, but excellent strikers have been able to do it, and unsurprisingly for a man with 47 professional fights – 30 of them inside the UFC (!) – his durability isn’t quite as good as it once was.

Most notably, Cowboy has always had problems when his opponents have gone after his body. For whatever reason, Cerrone is vulnerable to body shots, and it was shots to the body – as well as a ramrod jab – that allowed Iaquinta to break Lee down in their fight. He’s also no stranger to backing up and overwhelming his opponents with punches, as the likes of Ross Pearson, Joe Lauzon and Diego Sanchez have all found out.

It must be said however that Cerrone is a better striker than anyone Iaquinta has faced recently with the exception of Jorge Masvidal, and really, with different judges, Masvidal probably would’ve been given the nod in that fight. All of this adds up to a really tricky fight to pick.

After much soul-searching, I’m going with Cowboy. To steal a quote (sort of) from Wyatt Earp in the movie Tombstone, Iaquinta might be able to get Cerrone in a rush, but if that initial rush fails then the likelihood is that Cowboy is going to turn his head into a canoe. Iaquinta’s chin might be solid – he’s never been stopped by strikes – but I think Cerrone can hit him enough to throw him off his gameplan, and if this fight hits the ground then I’m betting that Cowboy can seal the deal once again.

I see a fight in which Cowboy will probably go through hell in the first round, but as long as he can last it out I think he’ll turn the tables on Iaquinta, and submit him late in the fight.

The Pick: Cerrone via fourth-round submission

#2 Elias Theodorou vs. Derek Brunson

Elias Theodorou's greatest strength is his insane cardio

This level of fight has been a long time coming for Elias Theodorou, who won the lone season of TUF: Nations back in 2014. Since then he’s gone 8-2 in the UFC with his only losses coming in tight decisions to Brad Tavares and Thiago ‘Marreta’ Santos, but he’s never really been given the step up to a top ten-level opponent. Derek Brunson marks that step up, so can ‘The Spartan’ make the leap from prospect to contender at Middleweight?

I think it’s possible that he can. Theodorou is a tricky fighter to get a handle on. When he first emerged he felt like a larger version of very early Diego Sanchez; a stifling grappler who pushed a pace so hard that his opponents tended to wilt under the pressure he would bring.

That changed when he faced Santos – who was able to shrug off his takedowns and beat him up in the clinch – and my hunch is that like Chris Weidman, Theodorou was once a much bigger 185lber who was forced to lose a lot of his size when the USADA programme removed the option of rehydrating with an IV.

Since then, the Canadian’s game has evolved heavily into more of a point-fighting striking style. He still pushes a crazy pace using his cardio, but he now fights at a much greater range, rushing in with long punches and head kicks before leaping back out of range to avoid his opponents’ counters. And it’s that game that’s allowed him to defeat the likes of Dan Kelly, Trevor Smith and Sam Alvey with little difficulty, even if it’s meant he hasn’t finished an opponent since 2015.

Brunson is a pretty fascinating fight for Theodorou in that he’s got that power game that Elias probably wishes he still had. A hard-nosed wrestler, Brunson lay-and-prayed his way to a win over Chris Leben back in 2012, but then developed into a serious power puncher a couple of years later and used that concussive power to take out the likes of Uriah Hall and Lyoto Machida, becoming a contender in the process.

The problem for him has been his tendency to rush things without completely thinking about his defense. That worked fine against the likes of Machida, who was simply overwhelmed by his power, but against more nuanced foes like Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, his wild style got him into big trouble and he was dealt with quickly and violently, ending up on the wrong end of TKO losses.

Right now he’s on a two-fight losing streak, but he remains a danger to any man at 185lbs, essentially. For me then, this fight seems like a similar deal to the infamous Mountain vs. Viper fight from Game of Thrones. If Theodorou can stay on the outside and pick Brunson off while avoiding the inevitable rush, there’s no reason why he can’t land enough strikes on him to win a decision – or perhaps even take him out down the stretch.

One mistake though, and Brunson could put that power on him and turn his lights out. The same thing almost happened to Theodorou in his most recent fight with Eryk Anders in fact, although the Canadian did do a tremendous job of managing to recover despite being badly hurt in the third round of that one.

It’s that durability and toughness – an attribute that might surprise some fans considering Theodorou’s reputation as a bit of a pretty-boy – that I think gives ‘The Spartan’ the advantage here. He isn’t on the downswing of his career like Machida and he weathers punishment far better than some of Brunson’s other KO victims like Hall, Dan Kelly and Roan Carneiro. Brunson’s got the ability to take anyone out, but Theodorou would be a particularly tough nut to crack.

Throw in the fact that Brunson is a big-time veteran – ten years in the game – and at 35 years old his explosive style might be slowing down somewhat, and I’m not sure that if he does catch Theodorou, he’ll have enough to finish him off. For me, the sheer volume that Elias throws probably means Brunson needs to hurt him at least once in each round to win a decision, and I’m not convinced he can do that.

It won’t be without some scares – to see him knocked down at least once wouldn’t shock me at all – but I think Theodorou’s got enough smarts and cardio to outpoint Brunson here, ducking and dodging and hitting him with enough punches and kicks from range to take a surprisingly lopsided decision.

The Pick: Theodorou via unanimous decision

#3 Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos

Shane Burgos is one of the best prospects at 145lbs

This to me is probably the second-best fight on this card behind the main event, as both Cub Swanson and Shane Burgos have ridiculously exciting styles and almost always push the pace and show serious aggression inside the cage. It’s also a classic prospect against veteran fight, as Burgos is only just starting his journey in the sport while Swanson – who’s been fighting professionally since 2004 – is likely on his way down now.

When all is said and done, Swanson may well go down as one of the best fighters to never land a title shot in the UFC – up there with the likes of Jacare Souza. After a loss to Ricardo Lamas in his UFC debut, he went on a tear, winning 6 fights in a row and even beating the likes of Dustin Poirier and Jeremy Stephens. Then he ran into Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway, and any hopes of a title shot went right out of the window.

Another win streak helped him back into contention, but right now Cub is on a three-fight losing streak, after dropping fights to Brian Ortega, Frankie Edgar (again) and Renato Moicano. There’s no shame in any of those losses, but the Moicano fight, in particular, was worrying for Swanson as he simply didn’t get out of first gear and looked very much like a man who was on the downturn of his career.

Burgos meanwhile has looked like a monster ever since he arrived in the UFC in 2016. A huge Featherweight who stands at 5’11” – giving him a height and substantial 5” reach advantage over Swanson – Burgos looks like a praying mantis inside the cage, hammering his opponents to the head and body with long punches from the outside, and his head movement and footwork allow him to do well in terms of defense, too.

From what I’ve seen of Burgos, his one weakness might be a bit of over-confidence; he was piecing Calvin Kattar up in their fight in January 2018 before he began to drop his hands a little too much, and eventually, Kattar surprised him with his own punching power and took him out. But last time we saw ‘The Hurricane’, he once again looked fantastic, easily submitting Kurt Holobaugh with a first-round armbar.

Not that we’ve seen a lot of it in the UFC, but Burgos clearly has a solid ground game; 5 submission wins out of 11 shows that, but he’d probably be best advised to avoid a grappling match with Swanson as despite his skills, I wouldn’t put him on the level of a Moicano, Ortega or Edgar, and Cub is a legitimate BJJ black belt who has outgrappled the likes of Poirier and Hacran Dias.

Swanson’s striking is also dangerous, as during that extensive winning streak he became one of the better kickboxers in the division, using his movement and creativity to take out the likes of Dennis Siver and Ross Pearson with beautiful combinations. And as we saw in his insane brawl with Doo Ho Choi in late 2017, he’s more than happy to get into absolute wars and hang in there using his chin and veteran wiles.

I’d have given Swanson in his prime a decent chance of taking out Burgos here; there are questions around Burgos’ toughness after that loss to Kattar and I think Swanson’s an equally great striker in terms of his creativity and movement. A fight between prime Swanson and the current version of Burgos probably would’ve been wildly entertaining but Swanson probably would’ve had too much for him.

Now, though? I’m pretty convinced that Swanson doesn’t have a lot left in the tank at all, and it was maybe even that wild brawl with Choi that finally pushed him over the edge towards being a fighter who’s downright shot. In the end, the Moicano fight was too much like the recent stuff we’ve seen from other broken veterans like Carlos Condit for me to trust Swanson anymore, so I’m taking Burgos to become the first opponent since Jose Aldo in 2009 to take him out with strikes.

The Pick: Burgos via second-round TKO

#4 Brad Katona vs. Merab Dvalishvili

TUF winner Brad Katona is looking for his third UFC victory

This is the first main card showcase for TUF 27 winner Katona – a Canadian native who fights out of the SBG Ireland camp with Conor McGregor, et al – as he takes on Georgian fighter Dvalishvili, who trains out of the vaunted Serra/Longo camp. And it’s a quite fascinating fight on paper too, between the cold, calculating Brad Katona and the absolutely wild Merab Dvalishvili.

Serra/Longo is a bit of a strange camp in that they produce a ton of great fighters, but not many of them actually fight in a similar style. Chris Weidman is all about long strikes and slick grappling, Al Iaquinta is almost entirely a boxer, Aljamain Sterling has his own unique style, and so on. Dvalishvili is different again as his game seems almost entirely based around power.

His takedowns are strong and he’s capable of throwing his opponents around; he throws wildly heavy punches, all hooks and haymakers, and even on the ground his submissions look more based around his brute strength than technique, although it’s clear he does have some good grappling skills, too.

Katona meanwhile deploys a similar style to his teammate Gunnar Nelson, particularly on the feet. From the footage I’ve seen he isn’t as karate-based as Nelson but he definitely prefers the hop in, hop out style of striking, catching his opponents off-guard with his movement and counter game. He also has decent enough takedowns, although we haven’t really seen too much of his submission game outside of a late – and almost successful – choke attempt against Matthew Lopez in December.

Essentially here, this for me comes down to whether Katona can stop Dvalishvili from getting hold of him early on. I’m pretty convinced that Dvalishvili can outgrapple and outpower Katona if he can close the distance and get inside, and while there’s always the chance that a fighter as wild as the Georgian could leave himself open to something nasty – as he did in his loss to Ricky Simon – if he can play it a little safer then I could see him outgrappling Katona to a decision.

With that said, Katona seems like much more of a cerebral fighter, and his movement and footwork should give him a decent chance of avoiding the early rush from Dvalishvili and being able to pick him apart from the outside. And if he can land a takedown of his own on the Georgian then I could definitely see him outworking Dvalishvili from the top, putting him in a position that he just isn’t used to.

I could look stupid here if Dvalishvili comes right out and steamrolls Katona but I just can’t trust the guy due to his wild nature and so I think Katona’s going to pick him off for the full 15 minutes en route to a judges’ decision.

The Pick: Katona via unanimous decision

#5 Walt Harris vs. Sergey Spivak

Walt Harris is a great athlete at Heavyweight

Initially, this fight was supposed to see Harris taking on Aleksei Oleinik, but when the big Russian ended up fighting Alistair Overeem a couple of weeks back, the UFC has signed unbeaten newcomer Sergey Spivak to face him instead. That means it’s a much more risky fight for Walt Harris, who would be on a two-fight win streak had he not tested positive for a banned substance following his December win over Andrei Arlovski.

So why is Harris able to fight just 4 months later? Well, apparently USADA decided that the positive test came from a “tainted supplement”, something we won’t get into here. At any rate, ‘The Big Ticket’ is a huge Heavyweight and he’s extremely gifted in an athletic sense, but he’s still got a ton of holes in his game; he can be lulled into a horribly slow pace, and while he hits hard, his defense – both standing and on the ground – leaves a lot to be desired.

I’ll be frank and say I’d have picked Oleinik to beat him pretty easily; Harris is just too open to getting caught to get past a wily veteran like the Russian, but Sergey Spivak is another story entirely. Hailing from Moldova, the same country that produced 205lbs prospect Ion Cutelaba, Spivak looks somehow even wilder, eschewing any kind of defense to throw wild haymakers at his opponents before looking to beat them up on the ground.

That style has served him well thus far – he’s 9-0 and has only been out of the first round once – but unsurprisingly, you’ve got to question his opposition massively, and really none of his previous foes will have given him the kind of test that Harris likely will purely based on the UFC veteran’s athleticism.

I don’t see this being one of Harris’s slower fights simply because the inexperienced Spivak just doesn’t really know any different other than to be super-aggressive, and so I suspect he’ll bring the fight to Harris. That should play into the hands of ‘The Big Ticket’, as he looks like the faster fighter and he’s somehow the more clean and technical striker too. If this one goes the distance I’ll be gobsmacked, but I’m taking Harris comfortably.

The Pick: Harris via first round TKO

#6 Marc-Andre Barriault vs. Andrew Sanchez

Andrew Sanchez has struggled to maintain stamina in his UFC run

This Middleweight fight is a tricky one to get a handle on as I feel like the UFC probably sees both men as prospects of a sort, but then the newcomer Marc-Andre Barriault is already 29 while Andrew Sanchez is 31, and both men have enough holes in their games to likely keep them away from reaching the very top of the division for the foreseeable future.

For Sanchez – who defeated Khalil Rountree to win the 23rd season of TUF back in 2016 – those holes have usually been around his gas tank. A powerful wrestler and a solid striker, Sanchez used those skills to grind out wins over Rountree and Trevor Smith, but threw away a two-round lead in a fight with Anthony Smith and wound up being stopped in the third.

Worse still was his loss to Ryan Janes, in which he almost stopped Janes in the first before completely gassing out and being finished, again in the third round. If Sanchez can control his output and put together his game as he did in his last fight with Markus Perez though, this is a winnable fight for him.

Barriault is coming off the regional scene with a record of 11-1, and his footage shows a tough fighter with some good striking skills and a pretty stout wrestling and top control game too. How well his takedowns – which look more strength and power-based than anything too technical – translate against a wrestler as good as Sanchez is tricky to say, but ‘Power Bar’ looks tough enough to hang in there even if he’s losing initially.

I’m tempted to pick Sanchez here based on his grappling skills and the fact that Barriault doesn’t appear to have watertight takedown defense, but I’m not sure that I can trust him not to blow up at some point, particularly as Barriault appears to be the kind of hard-nosed fighter who’s not going to allow ‘El Dirte’ to hold him down without resistance. I’m going with Barriault in a come-from-behind win, landing Sanchez on the wrong end of another third round stoppage.

The Pick: Barriault via third round TKO

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Top prospect Macy Chiasson is headlining the prelim card

All of this weekend’s preliminary fights will take place on ESPN+, meaning this should be an easy show to watch for US fans! Headlining the prelims is a Bantamweight fight between Macy Chiasson and Sarah Moras. After winning TUF 28 in 2018 it was hoped that Chiasson would develop into a rare prospect at Featherweight, but instead, she’s dropped to 135lbs and recently defeated Gina Mazany. Even at 135lbs she’s still an excellent prospect with a freakish reach and skills in all areas that belie her lack of experience. Moras is a solid grappler, but her lack of athleticism means she will likely struggle against Chiasson, and so I’m taking the TUF winner by TKO.

At Bantamweight, Aiemann Zahabi – brother of famed trainer Firas – takes on Vince Morales. Both men are decent enough prospects but I like Zahabi’s more methodical, technical style against Morales’s brawling and counter-punching game. I’ll go with Zahabi via decision here.

Kyle Nelson takes on Matt Sayles in a Featherweight bout which could well be considered a loser-leaves-town match. Nelson actually came into the UFC as a late replacement, but performed well against Diego Ferreira before tiring, while Sayles lost his UFC debut pretty convincingly to uber-striker Sheymon Moraes. I’m not sure that Sayles – who relies heavily on his punching power but isn’t that quick – really has the game to succeed in the UFC and so I’ll take Nelson via decision.

Veteran Nordine Taleb returns at Welterweight to face off with late replacement Kyle Prepolec, who is taking this fight after Siyar Bahadurzada withdrew. Taleb remains a tricky fighter to get a handle on – he’s extremely skilled in all areas and hits hard, but his robotic nature means he’s susceptible to the offense of more explosive opponents. Given Prepolec usually fights at 155lbs and is taking this one late, though, I’m confident in taking Taleb to beat him via decision or late TKO.

In an intriguing fight at Heavyweight, the hulking Juan Adams returns to face off with Canadian Olympic wrestler Arjan Bhullar. Bhullar was once considered a great prospect but hasn’t quite rounded out his skills as some might’ve hoped, and against a giant like Adams – who cuts to make 265lbs and has a wrestling background of his own – I think he’s in trouble. Adams by TKO is my pick.

Finally, Mitch Gagnon returns to take on Cole Smith at Bantamweight. The uber-aggressive Gagnon looked like a hell of a prospect some years ago, but he’s only fought twice since 2014 and doesn’t have a win since October of that year. Smith is another late replacement though, and with a lack of footage on him, it’s hard to really guess what he might do. Gagnon via submission is the safe pick in my opinion.