UFC Fight Night 151: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy - Predictions and Picks

#2 Elias Theodorou vs. Derek Brunson

Elias Theodorou's greatest strength is his insane cardio

This level of fight has been a long time coming for Elias Theodorou, who won the lone season of TUF: Nations back in 2014. Since then he’s gone 8-2 in the UFC with his only losses coming in tight decisions to Brad Tavares and Thiago ‘Marreta’ Santos, but he’s never really been given the step up to a top ten-level opponent. Derek Brunson marks that step up, so can ‘The Spartan’ make the leap from prospect to contender at Middleweight?

I think it’s possible that he can. Theodorou is a tricky fighter to get a handle on. When he first emerged he felt like a larger version of very early Diego Sanchez; a stifling grappler who pushed a pace so hard that his opponents tended to wilt under the pressure he would bring.

That changed when he faced Santos – who was able to shrug off his takedowns and beat him up in the clinch – and my hunch is that like Chris Weidman, Theodorou was once a much bigger 185lber who was forced to lose a lot of his size when the USADA programme removed the option of rehydrating with an IV.

Since then, the Canadian’s game has evolved heavily into more of a point-fighting striking style. He still pushes a crazy pace using his cardio, but he now fights at a much greater range, rushing in with long punches and head kicks before leaping back out of range to avoid his opponents’ counters. And it’s that game that’s allowed him to defeat the likes of Dan Kelly, Trevor Smith and Sam Alvey with little difficulty, even if it’s meant he hasn’t finished an opponent since 2015.

Brunson is a pretty fascinating fight for Theodorou in that he’s got that power game that Elias probably wishes he still had. A hard-nosed wrestler, Brunson lay-and-prayed his way to a win over Chris Leben back in 2012, but then developed into a serious power puncher a couple of years later and used that concussive power to take out the likes of Uriah Hall and Lyoto Machida, becoming a contender in the process.

The problem for him has been his tendency to rush things without completely thinking about his defense. That worked fine against the likes of Machida, who was simply overwhelmed by his power, but against more nuanced foes like Robert Whittaker and Israel Adesanya, his wild style got him into big trouble and he was dealt with quickly and violently, ending up on the wrong end of TKO losses.

Right now he’s on a two-fight losing streak, but he remains a danger to any man at 185lbs, essentially. For me then, this fight seems like a similar deal to the infamous Mountain vs. Viper fight from Game of Thrones. If Theodorou can stay on the outside and pick Brunson off while avoiding the inevitable rush, there’s no reason why he can’t land enough strikes on him to win a decision – or perhaps even take him out down the stretch.

One mistake though, and Brunson could put that power on him and turn his lights out. The same thing almost happened to Theodorou in his most recent fight with Eryk Anders in fact, although the Canadian did do a tremendous job of managing to recover despite being badly hurt in the third round of that one.

It’s that durability and toughness – an attribute that might surprise some fans considering Theodorou’s reputation as a bit of a pretty-boy – that I think gives ‘The Spartan’ the advantage here. He isn’t on the downswing of his career like Machida and he weathers punishment far better than some of Brunson’s other KO victims like Hall, Dan Kelly and Roan Carneiro. Brunson’s got the ability to take anyone out, but Theodorou would be a particularly tough nut to crack.

Throw in the fact that Brunson is a big-time veteran – ten years in the game – and at 35 years old his explosive style might be slowing down somewhat, and I’m not sure that if he does catch Theodorou, he’ll have enough to finish him off. For me, the sheer volume that Elias throws probably means Brunson needs to hurt him at least once in each round to win a decision, and I’m not convinced he can do that.

It won’t be without some scares – to see him knocked down at least once wouldn’t shock me at all – but I think Theodorou’s got enough smarts and cardio to outpoint Brunson here, ducking and dodging and hitting him with enough punches and kicks from range to take a surprisingly lopsided decision.

The Pick: Theodorou via unanimous decision