UFC Fight Night 151: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy - Predictions and Picks

#3 Cub Swanson vs. Shane Burgos

Shane Burgos is one of the best prospects at 145lbs

This to me is probably the second-best fight on this card behind the main event, as both Cub Swanson and Shane Burgos have ridiculously exciting styles and almost always push the pace and show serious aggression inside the cage. It’s also a classic prospect against veteran fight, as Burgos is only just starting his journey in the sport while Swanson – who’s been fighting professionally since 2004 – is likely on his way down now.

When all is said and done, Swanson may well go down as one of the best fighters to never land a title shot in the UFC – up there with the likes of Jacare Souza. After a loss to Ricardo Lamas in his UFC debut, he went on a tear, winning 6 fights in a row and even beating the likes of Dustin Poirier and Jeremy Stephens. Then he ran into Frankie Edgar and Max Holloway, and any hopes of a title shot went right out of the window.

Another win streak helped him back into contention, but right now Cub is on a three-fight losing streak, after dropping fights to Brian Ortega, Frankie Edgar (again) and Renato Moicano. There’s no shame in any of those losses, but the Moicano fight, in particular, was worrying for Swanson as he simply didn’t get out of first gear and looked very much like a man who was on the downturn of his career.

Burgos meanwhile has looked like a monster ever since he arrived in the UFC in 2016. A huge Featherweight who stands at 5’11” – giving him a height and substantial 5” reach advantage over Swanson – Burgos looks like a praying mantis inside the cage, hammering his opponents to the head and body with long punches from the outside, and his head movement and footwork allow him to do well in terms of defense, too.

From what I’ve seen of Burgos, his one weakness might be a bit of over-confidence; he was piecing Calvin Kattar up in their fight in January 2018 before he began to drop his hands a little too much, and eventually, Kattar surprised him with his own punching power and took him out. But last time we saw ‘The Hurricane’, he once again looked fantastic, easily submitting Kurt Holobaugh with a first-round armbar.

Not that we’ve seen a lot of it in the UFC, but Burgos clearly has a solid ground game; 5 submission wins out of 11 shows that, but he’d probably be best advised to avoid a grappling match with Swanson as despite his skills, I wouldn’t put him on the level of a Moicano, Ortega or Edgar, and Cub is a legitimate BJJ black belt who has outgrappled the likes of Poirier and Hacran Dias.

Swanson’s striking is also dangerous, as during that extensive winning streak he became one of the better kickboxers in the division, using his movement and creativity to take out the likes of Dennis Siver and Ross Pearson with beautiful combinations. And as we saw in his insane brawl with Doo Ho Choi in late 2017, he’s more than happy to get into absolute wars and hang in there using his chin and veteran wiles.

I’d have given Swanson in his prime a decent chance of taking out Burgos here; there are questions around Burgos’ toughness after that loss to Kattar and I think Swanson’s an equally great striker in terms of his creativity and movement. A fight between prime Swanson and the current version of Burgos probably would’ve been wildly entertaining but Swanson probably would’ve had too much for him.

Now, though? I’m pretty convinced that Swanson doesn’t have a lot left in the tank at all, and it was maybe even that wild brawl with Choi that finally pushed him over the edge towards being a fighter who’s downright shot. In the end, the Moicano fight was too much like the recent stuff we’ve seen from other broken veterans like Carlos Condit for me to trust Swanson anymore, so I’m taking Burgos to become the first opponent since Jose Aldo in 2009 to take him out with strikes.

The Pick: Burgos via second-round TKO