UFC Fight Night 152: Dos Anjos vs. Lee - Predictions and Picks

After a couple of disappointing shows in the form of UFC 237 and Fight Night 151, the UFC has another ESPN+ show this weekend on tap in the form of Fight Night 152: Dos Anjos vs. Lee, and hopefully the mini-slide will turn around and we’ll get some great fights.

The show, which takes place in Rochester, New York, has some fun-sounding fights – but it has lost its semi-main event to injury as Neil Magny pulled out of his fight with Vicente Luque yesterday due to some USADA issues, giving us a thrown-together fight second from the top instead.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 152: Dos Anjos vs. Lee.

#1 Rafael Dos Anjos vs. Kevin Lee

Kevin Lee will be making his debut at Welterweight this weekend

This Welterweight fight is a pretty fascinating one for a number of different reasons. Firstly, it’s a battle of two men who used to fight at 155lbs; Dos Anjos famously won the title there in 2015 by beating Anthony Pettis and then moved to 170lbs in 2017, while Lee fought for the Lightweight title in 2017 and this will be his first fight up at the heavier weight class.

And secondly, it poses a pretty major question: did Dos Anjos’ size cost him his fights with Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington, or does he have a weakness when it comes to pressure-fighting wrestlers?

When it comes to wrestlers who can pile on the pressure, Lee comes near the top of the list in the UFC. He doesn’t actually have the best wrestling background, but he’s got a powerful takedown, is insanely athletic and more to the point, he sets a pace that tends to wilt the majority of his opponents.

Last year’s win over Edson Barboza was the best Lee we’d ever seen; ‘The Motown Phenom’ simply forced Barboza onto his back foot and never let up, destroying him after taking him down and pounding him violently.

On the flip-side though, Lee doesn’t necessarily deal well with pressure himself. Ignoring his older losses to Al Iaquinta and Leonardo Santos – who beat a Lee who wasn’t fully developed – his recent losses to Iaquinta in a rematch and to Tony Ferguson came not by him being dominated, but by him fighting well before getting tired once his opponent turned the tide on him.

He’s very tough – we saw him survive serious punishment from Francisco Trinaldo to come back to submit the Brazilian – but he’s definitely beatable.

‘RDA’ meanwhile appeared to be settling into a role as a journeyman before hooking up with famed coach Rafael Cordeiro and going on a real tear, beginning in around 2012. His kickboxing suddenly improved dramatically, as did his clinch work and wrestling, and coupled with an already venomous submission game, he quickly became a title threat.

The Brazilian took out the likes of Benson Henderson, Donald Cerrone and finally Anthony Pettis to win the Lightweight title, only to fall victim to the dangerous Eddie Alvarez.

RDA blamed that loss on a bad weight cut, and decided to move to 170lbs. He had some early success there – beating Tarec Saffiedine, Neil Magny and Robbie Lawler – but losses to Colby Covington and Kamaru Usman seemed to reveal his ceiling at Welterweight.

Essentially, he’s a great fighter when he’s pushing forward, but if you can pressure him back, get him down and unload on him, then he can be beaten – even if he’s not been stopped at 170lbs.

This fight to me then purely comes down to whether Lee copes with the move to 170lbs well or not. If it turns out that his huge size at 155lbs was the biggest thing helping his takedown game, then Dos Anjos could well capitalise on that by stopping his takedowns, maybe even taking him down instead.

And if he can do that, well, he’s a far superior kickboxer and if he gets top position then it wouldn’t shock me to see him submit Lee.

If Lee takes to 170lbs well though – and he’s had 5 months to adjust and pack on the muscle – then I can’t see him not replicating the Usman and Covington gameplan.

And while Usman is almost one of a kind in his ability to put pressure on an opponent, I don’t really think Covington is any better at it than Lee.

I’m edging towards Lee here; at 26 years old he’s still got the potential to pack on a lot of size and if he’s as big and strong at 170lbs as he was at 155lbs then sure, I can’t see RDA being able to keep ‘The Motown Phenom’ off him. Assuming Lee doesn’t make a fatal error – likely allowing RDA to get top position – then this should be his fight.

The Pick: Lee via unanimous decision

#2 Vicente Luque vs. Derrick Krantz

Facing a late replacement, Vicente Luque should pick up another UFC finish

So initially, this would’ve seen Luque – who is currently 8-2 in the UFC and who has finished each and every one of his victories – facing perennial top ten-ranked Neil Magny in what could well have been a breakout fight for the veteran of TUF 21.

With Magny removed due to a USADA issue just days before the show though, the UFC has scrambled for a replacement and come up with Krantz.

‘D-Rock’ currently sports a record of 22-10, has been fighting since 2008, and is on a two-fight winning streak. Glancing at his ledger though, something immediately stands out: almost every fighter on there that I’ve heard of has beaten him, from Dustin Poirier and Andrey Koreshkov to Sean Spencer and Alex Morono.

A champion in the Legacy Fighting Alliance promotion, footage on Krantz appears to show a fighter relatively well-rounded, but one who relies almost purely on his punching power to get him through.

That’s all well and good, but against a guy like Luque it’s almost guaranteed to get him into trouble. ‘The Silent Assassin’ has a ridiculous chin, as evidenced by his February win over Bryan Barbarena, and he has plenty of punching power of his own – not to mention a genuine black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and pretty deadly submission skills.

We’ve seen late replacements shock the world before – remember when Alexander Hernandez cleaned Beneil Dariush’s clock, for instance? – but I can’t see that happening here. Luque is explosive, dangerous, at the top of his game and poor Krantz is coming in on barely any notice at all. I can’t pick against Luque here – I’d be insane.

The Pick: Luque via first round submission

#3 Antonio Carlos Junior vs. Ian Heinisch

Antonio Carlos Junior has been on a climb since his UFC debut in 2014

At Middleweight, tough wrestler – and ex-con – Heinisch looks to take his second win over a TUF Brazil champion after surprisingly overcoming Cezar Ferreira last November. His opponent here – Carlos Junior, AKA ‘Cara de Sapato’ or ‘Shoeface’ – promises to be a far tougher out in my opinion, though.

Quite how Shoeface has ended up facing Heinisch – no offense to the latter – is a mystery to me. The Brazilian is currently ranked #12 at 185lbs, and he’s on a 5-fight winning streak after submitting Tim Boetsch last April.

A huge, hulking 185lber, Carlos Junior is a monster on the ground with some top-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills, but he’s shown some penchant for tiring out quite badly in his previous fights, a chink in his armour that led to his loss to Dan Kelly in 2016.

It’s hard to really get a feel for Heinisch based on that win over Ferreira, to be honest. ‘The Hurricane’ did well to fend off the takedowns of ‘Mutante’ and he largely outstruck him too, but in all honesty it was a bit of a slower fight and I couldn’t help but feel like Ferreira threw the fight away by gassing out in attempting to take Heinisch down.

That makes this one a bit tricky to pick; in all honesty it feels like the kind of fight that Shoeface should win comfortably. If he can take Heinisch down then I’ve got very little doubt that he can slap on an arm triangle or a rear naked choke and submit him in quick fashion.

But given Heinisch was able to stop Ferreira’s takedowns and tire him out that way, if he can do that to Shoeface then the upset could well be on.

Heinisch looks tough, but the likes of Boetsch and Jack Marshman were tough too and Shoeface got rid of both of them pretty comfortably once he muscled them to the ground.

Assuming the Brazilian doesn’t tire himself out trying to take Heinisch down – and even then, Heinisch didn’t really show that much power against the notoriously chinny Ferreira, and Shoeface is a decent striker in his own right – then I think he’ll win this one by submission.

The Pick: Carlos Junior via first round submission

#4 Megan Anderson vs. Felicia Spencer

Megan Anderson is returning to action in a rare Women's 145lbs fight

I’m still unsure as to where the UFC are headed with the Women’s 145lbs division. Amanda Nunes finally toppling Cris Cyborg to take the Featherweight title from her was one of the best moments of 2018 and was a breath of fresh air for the division – which felt like a never-ending queue of warm bodies for Cyborg to destroy – but there hasn’t been a fight in the division since and top prospect Macy Chiasson has already dropped to 135lbs, as has Nunes, who will defend the title there against Holly Holm.

I guess the UFC are trying to give the division a push by airing this one on the main card of a show and bringing in a newcomer in Spencer, but I’m just not sure. Spencer is at least a fighter who appears to be highly talented.

The current Invicta champion at the weight, she’s 6-0 and has only gone the distance twice. The fact that most of her victories have come on the ground could bode well for her here too.

That’s because Anderson looked completely out of her depth on the ground against Holly Holm of all people – a career striker – in her UFC debut last year. She did bounce back by beating Cat Zingano in December, but that fight really never got going – Anderson hit her with a glancing head kick that saw a toe enter Zingano’s eye, and the fight had to be stopped.

It was a TKO win for Anderson but in my eyes it should’ve been a No Contest, similar to how an accidental eye poke would’ve been called.

At her best, Anderson is an absolutely devastating kickboxer. Huge for 145lbs, she stands at 6’0” and has a long 72” reach, and she throws everything she has with massive power. It’s why so many people were clamouring for her to fight Cyborg; she felt like the one fighter who had the power to match the Brazilian – until Nunes came along, of course.

For me this could go either way; either Spencer will exploit Anderson’s apparently questionable takedown defense and submit her or keep her grounded for a decision, or she’s getting knocked out.

I’m leaning towards the latter given Anderson’s huge size and reach advantage, and also the fact that where Holly Holm was able to use her dangerous striking to set up her takedowns, Spencer’s striking isn’t nearly that good. I like Anderson here by KO.

The Pick: Anderson via first round KO

#5 Nik Lentz vs. Charles Oliveira

Charles Oliveira has already submitted Nik Lentz twice

Okay, I’ll admit I have literally no idea why the UFC have put this fight together. For those who don’t remember, Lentz and Oliveira first clashed back in 2011; Oliveira choked Lentz out, but the result was overturned to a No Contest due to the fact that the Brazilian set up his choke with a clearly illegal knee that stunned ‘The Carny’. A rematch – albeit 4 years later – made sense, but Oliveira choked Lentz out there too, seemingly closing the rivalry off.

So why are they fighting here? I have no idea. Oliveira is currently on a 4-fight win streak and looks pretty much as good as he’s ever done.

He’s still a bit of a glass cannon, but he’s an incredibly dangerous finisher and actually has the most submissions in UFC history with 13. After beating David Teymur I expected him to be given a step up the ladder, no offense to Lentz.

Lentz has developed a ton over his decade in the UFC; once he had the reputation as being one of the UFC’s most boring fighters, a stifling wrestler who sucked the fun out of any fight he was in and somehow won fights he clearly lost – like his weird decision over Tyson Griffin in 2010.

It was a drop to Featherweight that largely changed him, though, and suddenly ‘The Carny’ became one of the most reckless fighters in the promotion instead, something that’s likely kept him around for so long.

Sure, he’s been less successful for the most part – he’s gone 5-2 since his 2015 move back to 155lbs when he began to find the cut to 145lbs a little too tricky – but he is on a two-fight win streak currently.

The biggest problem for Lentz since moving back to 155lbs seems to be with his cardio; with his more reckless style he tends to get more tired than he did years ago, although that could also be due to his age – he’s 34 – and the fact that he’s been fighting for nearly 15 years.

For me this comes down to whether Lentz can put Oliveira away early, and to be honest, based on the fact that he hasn’t in two attempts before, I don’t think he can. And over the stretch I just think Oliveira’s got too much for him, particularly on the ground and in terms of grappling.

We’ve seen this story before and I think it’ll be similar to their 2015 clash – back-and-forth early on but Oliveira will tap Lentz for the third time later in the fight.

The Pick: Oliveira via second round submission

#6 Davi Ramos vs. Austin Hubbard

Davi Ramos is a rare specialist in the modern-day UFC

I’m not really sure how this one made the main card over a couple of the better prelims here, but there you go. The last time we saw world-class grappler Ramos, he was submitting John Gunther with terrifying ease at the UFC’s 25th anniversary show, giving us all some nice Royce Gracie flashbacks.

This time he’s up against newcomer Austin Hubbard, and to be honest, Hubbard isn’t a name I’d heard of before this fight was announced.

A look at his highlight reel and his fight footage appears to show a classic modern-day MMA fighter. Seemingly a jack-of-all-trades type, Hubbard looks aggressive, throws some nice strikes, has some decent enough takedowns and his ground-and-pound looks excellent.

Fighting out of the famed Elevation team under UFC veteran Eliot Marshall, it’s hardly a surprise to see him sign with the UFC after putting together a 10-2 record.

I actually think he’s in trouble here, though. The problem for Hubbard is that historically, unless you’re a truly great fighter – think someone like Georges St-Pierre or Jose Aldo – jack-of-all-trades types tend to struggle against fighters who are truly elite in one single area, even if their skills are generally lacking a bit elsewhere.

Ramos is one of those rare specialists still around in MMA at the top level today. An Abu Dhabi champion in 2015, Ramos is arguably one of the most skilled and decorated grapplers in the sport today, and while his striking might be lagging behind his submissions, like Demian Maia before him it doesn’t tend to matter when you’re that good on the ground.

The Brazilian’s last 3 wins have been total shutouts – finishes by rear naked choke in the first round – and in all honesty given what I’ve seen from Hubbard, who could easily go on to some decent success down the line, I just don’t see that he’s going to be able to prevent Ramos from just taking him down and tooling him on the ground too. There’ll be no shame in it, but this feels one-sided to me.

The Pick: Ramos via first round submission

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Top prospect Aspen Ladd headlines Saturday's prelims

This is one of those Fight Night shows that’s set to air completely on the ESPN+ streaming service, giving a few flashbacks to the Fox Sports 1 days. Hopefully, the pace is much quicker than we used to get back then!

At the top of the prelim card is a Bantamweight fight between Sijara Eubanks and Aspen Ladd. To me this is some strange matchmaking; Eubanks, a top contender at Strawweight, is moving to Bantamweight for the first time in the UFC and she’s faced with one of the best prospects in the division in Ladd, who we last saw destroying former title challenger Tonya Evinger.

And more to the point, the two have already faced off once, in Invicta, and Ladd won a decision. Eubanks has shown herself to be a pretty great grappler but I worry for her here due to Ladd’s size and sheer aggression. I’ll go with Ladd via unanimous decision again.

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At Lightweight, stifling wrestler Desmond Green returns to face Canadian newcomer Charles Jourdain. I’m actually not sure why this fight wasn’t put on the Canadian Fight Night card two weeks ago but that’s a tangent; I can’t see Jourdain stopping the takedown so I’ll go with Green via decision.

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Welterweight Michel Pereira – who went viral due to his downright bizarre Openweight fight in Road FC with Kim Dae Sung that saw the Brazilian attempt multiple backflip-based moves – debuts in the Octagon to face the UK’s Danny Roberts, a tough veteran with plenty of power of his own.

This should be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts, but I worry about Pereira’s wild nature and so I think Roberts will shut him down after a crazy brawl. Roberts via TKO is my pick.

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At Featherweight, former TUF winner Michael Trizano returns to face Grant Dawson, who found himself in hot water with USADA in 2017 before returning in 2019 to pick up his first UFC win. This should be a tough grappling match but I like Trizano to grind out a decision down the stretch.

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We should be in for a genuinely filthy brawl at 205lbs as Patrick Cummins takes on Ed Herman in a fight where defence will likely be the last thing on either man’s mind. Both men have pretty solid skills but at the tail end of their careers, they’re much more likely to simply trade off and throw down.

In that case, I like Herman, who appears to have more of a chin left these days, via TKO.

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Middleweights Trevin Giles and Zak Cummings face off in a fight which hardly does a lot to enthuse, given Cummings’ absolutely dull style inside the cage. Giles is unbeaten at 11-0 and has two UFC wins to his name – and also beat Ryan Spann on the regional circuit – but this will be a tough one for him. I’m hoping for a Giles KO but a Cummings decision also wouldn’t be a shocker.

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Finally, Featherweights Julio Arce and Julian Erosa will open the card, with Arce looking to bounce back from his first UFC loss – a wild bloodbath against Sheymon Moraes. Thankfully for Arce, Erosa isn’t anywhere close to the athlete that Moraes is, and Arce is a dangerous finisher in all areas. I like Arce to hurt Erosa early and put him away either with a submission or a TKO.