UFC Fight Night 152: Dos Anjos vs. Lee - Predictions and Picks

#5 Nik Lentz vs. Charles Oliveira

Charles Oliveira has already submitted Nik Lentz twice

Okay, I’ll admit I have literally no idea why the UFC have put this fight together. For those who don’t remember, Lentz and Oliveira first clashed back in 2011; Oliveira choked Lentz out, but the result was overturned to a No Contest due to the fact that the Brazilian set up his choke with a clearly illegal knee that stunned ‘The Carny’. A rematch – albeit 4 years later – made sense, but Oliveira choked Lentz out there too, seemingly closing the rivalry off.

So why are they fighting here? I have no idea. Oliveira is currently on a 4-fight win streak and looks pretty much as good as he’s ever done.

He’s still a bit of a glass cannon, but he’s an incredibly dangerous finisher and actually has the most submissions in UFC history with 13. After beating David Teymur I expected him to be given a step up the ladder, no offense to Lentz.

Lentz has developed a ton over his decade in the UFC; once he had the reputation as being one of the UFC’s most boring fighters, a stifling wrestler who sucked the fun out of any fight he was in and somehow won fights he clearly lost – like his weird decision over Tyson Griffin in 2010.

It was a drop to Featherweight that largely changed him, though, and suddenly ‘The Carny’ became one of the most reckless fighters in the promotion instead, something that’s likely kept him around for so long.

Sure, he’s been less successful for the most part – he’s gone 5-2 since his 2015 move back to 155lbs when he began to find the cut to 145lbs a little too tricky – but he is on a two-fight win streak currently.

The biggest problem for Lentz since moving back to 155lbs seems to be with his cardio; with his more reckless style he tends to get more tired than he did years ago, although that could also be due to his age – he’s 34 – and the fact that he’s been fighting for nearly 15 years.

For me this comes down to whether Lentz can put Oliveira away early, and to be honest, based on the fact that he hasn’t in two attempts before, I don’t think he can. And over the stretch I just think Oliveira’s got too much for him, particularly on the ground and in terms of grappling.

We’ve seen this story before and I think it’ll be similar to their 2015 clash – back-and-forth early on but Oliveira will tap Lentz for the third time later in the fight.

The Pick: Oliveira via second round submission