UFC Fight Night 153: Gustafsson vs. Smith - Predictions and Picks

After a weekend without any UFC action, the world’s biggest MMA promotion returns this Saturday with UFC Fight Night 153: Gustafsson vs. Smith, live from the Ericsson Globe in Stockholm, Sweden.

The Light-Heavyweight division seems to be the focus for this show – 3 of the 6 main card bouts take place in the division – but overall as you’d expect for a European ESPN+ card, it isn’t the strongest show on paper.

Still, it should be worth watching; the likes of Alexander Gustafsson, Anthony Smith, Jimi Manuwa and Makwan Amirkhani rarely have boring fights, and with Sweden’s own Gustafsson in the main event, the crowd should be hot throughout.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 153: Gustafsson vs. Smith.

#1 Alexander Gustafsson vs. Anthony Smith

Alexander Gustafsson could use his range to take the fight to Anthony Smith

A fight between two of the most exciting fighters in the 205lbs division, this should at least provide the fans with some quality action. For Smith, after his failed title shot at Jon Jones, this represents a chance to prove that he does belong in the upper echelon of the division and wasn’t simply a weak challenger on a lucky run.

And for Gustafsson, it’s his chance to show that despite his own loss to Jones, he’s still the #2 fighter at Light-Heavyweight.

Smith has been a fighter I’ve underrated in this run at 205lbs. He was TKO’d violently by Thiago Santos at 185lbs at the beginning of 2018, and while his wins over Rashad Evans and Shogun Rua gave him some name value, realistically both men were far past their prime when ‘Lionheart’ took them out.

But then Smith showed his real potential, weathering an early storm to tap out Volkan Oezdemir in the third round, a win that was enough to net him a title shot.

It’s hard to say what should be made of said title shot, really. On one hand, Smith did last the distance with Jon Jones – something few fighters have managed to do. But on the other hand, Jones fought strangely flat that night, and more to the point, Smith never really fought with the same reckless abandon we’ve seen from him before. It was almost as if he never truly believed he could win.

That for me is the problem with this fight. Smith is at his best when he attacks an opponent; his rangy, 6’3” frame allows him to assault his foes with nasty, long strikes from the outside – like the front kick to the jaw he landed on Shogun – as well as some vicious strikes from inside the clinch.

And that frame also makes him tricky to deal with on the ground. But when he does attack, he leaves himself open to being caught by his opponent, and historically at least, he doesn’t weather punishment too well.

It’s true that he did survive some big shots from Oezdemir, but really the Swiss fighter never truly caught him cleanly, nor did he really swarm Smith to look for a finish.

Gustafsson on the other hand is a truly ruthless finisher in the mould of Chuck Liddell. It’s not that he has one-hit KO power like Anthony Johnson, more that when he has an opponent hurt, it’s very likely that he’s going to put them away violently.

For me the only worrying thing about Gustafsson is his lack of cage time recently. It’s only 5 months since his loss to Jon Jones, but that was his first fight in more than a year due to injuries.

‘The Mauler’ has been in the UFC since 2009 and has turned 32 this year, so how much longer he can stick around is a question, but if he’s at his best, there’s definitely a case to make for him being second in the division only to Jones.

At 6’5”, Gustafsson is just as adept at the rangy striking that Smith utilises, but if anything he’s better at fighting from distance. And while he doesn’t offer too much of a submission threat, he’s an underrated wrestler with some strong takedowns and truly excellent takedown defense.

The Swede’s chin has usually been solid – he’s only been KO’d by Jones and Anthony Johnson – but his 2016 fight with Jan Blachowicz did show a worrying penchant for allowing his opponent to hit him cleanly.

Smith could win this fight I guess – he could come out aggressively and catch Gustafsson unaware, and I think he’s got the power to take out the Swede – but I’m going with ‘The Mauler’ as the safer bet.

He’s the bigger, longer man and everything Smith does, Gustafsson appears to do just slightly better. Throw in the likely self-doubt that Smith may have post-Jones, and I can’t see him swaggering in as he did against Shogun.

That’s a recipe for disaster as Gustafsson can poke at him from range – something Smith isn’t used to – and I think he can hurt ‘Lionheart’ and take him out from there.

The Pick: Gustafsson via second round TKO

#2 Volkan Oezdemir vs. Ilir Latifi

Can Ilir Latifi out-power Volkan Oezdemir?

Another clash in the Light-Heavyweight division, this has more European flavour as it features a Swiss fighter in Oezdemir against a Swedish one in Latifi.

The fact that both men are still heavily involved in the title picture despite coming off losses – Oezdemir three in a row – probably says a lot about the current state of 205lbs, but they’re both quality fighters so let’s not get into that too much.

In all honesty Oezdemir might have his back to the wall here. I don’t think the UFC would cut him off a loss due to the thin nature of 205lbs, but a loss would certainly mark the end of his time as a top ten fighter I think.

As many – including myself – suspected, ‘No Time’ has simply been unable to hold the momentum that took him to a title shot following quick KO wins over Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa.

In hindsight, while those wins were impressive, they look more and more to be the product of both Cirkunov and Manuwa having questionable chins more than anything Oezdemir is capable of.

He was crushed by Daniel Cormier on the ground, couldn’t knock Anthony Smith out and blew up quite badly trying, and while his fight against prospect Dominick Reyes was an underrated war of attrition, he never really came close to finishing ‘The Devastator’ and was hurt himself on numerous occasions.

Essentially then, Oezdemir is a fundamentally solid striker with good but not great punching power, and although he’s defensively sound and has a strong chin, he’s definitely vulnerable on the ground and has a nasty penchant for gassing out.

Latifi is almost the polar opposite of his opponent, which makes this a fascinating fight. A stout wrestler, at just 5’8” there’s an argument to suggest Latifi shouldn’t even be fighting at 205lbs. But he’s simply too muscular to make 185lbs and would lose a lot of what brings him to the table if he did shed some of that size.

Essentially, he lives up to his ‘Sledgehammer’ moniker in every possible way. Technically speaking he’s not a great striker at all – he leaves himself open to being hit, is susceptible to body shots and can be picked apart and even knocked out – but he has insanely clubbing power that he’s used to shock his opponents and has 3 KO’s in the UFC alone.

On the ground is where his real strength lies, though. His wrestling game is again based around sheer power; he’s not the best technically, as we saw when he was comfortably outgrappled by Corey Anderson, but he can usually take his opponents down and once in top position, he throws some brutal ground-and-pound and can also latch onto brute strength-based submissions, too – his guillotine in particular is nasty, as it appears like he’s attempting to twist his opponent’s head clean off.

This should essentially come down to whether Oezdemir can take Latifi out with something heavy early on. If he can’t do that then I’m not sure he can stop ‘The Sledgehammer’ from taking him down, and from there based on what I’ve seen this should be Latifi’s fight to lose.

Given that Latifi’s only been taken out by strikes twice in the UFC – one a total hail mary strike from Ryan Bader’s knee that’ll be almost impossible to replicate – I’m thinking that Oezdemir will fail to get rid of him and then will succumb to the Swede’s ground assault.

The Pick: Latifi via unanimous decision

#3 Jimi Manuwa vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Jimi Manuwa's chin has given him some issues as of late

Another fight at Light-Heavyweight, this is essentially the last chance saloon for Manuwa in terms of being relevant to the title picture – if he still is – while for Rakic it’s a chance to break into the top ten and push his own claim to a title shot.

The Austrian fighter is still unbeaten right now and Manuwa, despite his recent skid, is clearly the toughest opponent he’s fought to date. So who comes out on top?

Debuting back in 2012 with a crushing win over Kyle Kingsbury, London-based striker Manuwa is a fantastic offensive fighter; he’s got big power even for 205lbs and knows how to use it, with his left hook being his most deadly weapon as we saw when he faced Corey Anderson a couple of years ago. The issue for ‘Poster Boy’ though has been his durability, or lack thereof.

Losses to Alexander Gustafsson and Anthony Johnson were nothing to be ashamed of, but in hindsight the Johnson loss in particular highlighted the fact that Manuwa’s chin simply isn’t that strong when he’s up against heavy hitters.

And so it came as no real surprise when Volkan Oezdemir folded him with some short punches from the clinch when they faced off in 2017.

More worryingly for Manuwa though, where his chin looked protected earlier in his UFC career, he seems to have deteriorated recently into a more reckless brawler; not the best style for him given his lack of durability.

He was doing fine against Jan Blachowicz before apparently being unable to defend against Blachowicz’s jab, and against Thiago Santos he simply traded with the Brazilian until he came out on the wrong end of a knockout.

Rakic is an interesting prospect for sure; he’s 11-0 and 3-0 in the UFC, and has only gone the distance twice. Sure, both Francimar Barroso and Justin Ledet lasted the full 15 minutes with him, but both of those fights were largely beatdowns outside of the odd takedown from Barroso.

Rakic throws quick combinations with a lot of power, has some savage leg kicks and appears to be a pretty high-level athlete too.

The big question about Rakic is his defensive work. His last fight saw him dropped multiple times by Devin Clark, largely due to leaving himself too open while throwing his leg kicks.

That’d be a huge mistake to make against Manuwa given the ridiculous power the Brit carries in his left hook, but to be fair to Rakic, he did get back up twice against Clark – even recovering from some illegal knees – and finished him moments later.

It’s that toughness that has me leaning towards Rakic here I think. These two could probably have a pretty technical striking battle and it’d be hard to call a winner, but realistically at some point one of the two will land hard and the other will be hurt, and the likely outcome from there is the fight descending into a wild brawl. If that’s the case then I’m backing Rakic and his less shopworn chin.

The Pick: Rakic via first round KO

#4 Makwan Amirkhani vs. Chris Fishgold

Finland's Makwan Amirkhani is always exciting to watch

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen ‘Mr Finland’ Amirkhani in the Octagon – a year in fact – and that’s way too long considering when he does compete, he’s one of the most exciting fighters in the 145lbs division, blending his striking and grappling together with some truly wild aggression.

In fact, his previous fight – a split decision win over Jason Knight – was one of the more underrated ones of 2018.

The good thing here is that Fishgold is a very similar fighter to Amirkhani. The Brit is ultra-aggressive, and while he was easily shut down by Calvin Kattar in their fight, he took the fight to Kattar with some wild punches before being knocked out.

Against Daniel Teymur meanwhile, he displayed excellent ground chops, taking the Swedish striker down and running a clinic on him before taking him out with a second-round rear naked choke.

This looks to me like a fight that has the potential to be the best on this card given the similar styles of both men and the fact that neither tends to back down. Two things seem quite notable to me, though; firstly Fishgold was taken out worryingly easily by the shots of Kattar, who hasn’t shown himself to be a massive power puncher even if he’s clearly an excellent fighter.

And secondly, at 5’8”, Fishgold is giving up two inches of height and length to Amirkhani, who does fight well from range.

For me this one could go either way but I’m leaning towards Amirkhani. He’s slightly more proven at the elite level than Fishgold, he hasn’t been stopped and showed an excellent chin when he was hit by Jason Knight (despite Knight’s taunts that his chin was weak!), and on the ground I favour his more dynamic style slightly too. I can’t see a finish though so I’ll take the Finn by a very tight decision.

The Pick: Amirkhani via split decision

#5 Damir Hadzovic vs. Christos Giagos

Damir Hadzovic will be looking to knock Christos Giagos out

Lightweight is such a packed division that plenty of solid prospects and veterans tend to fly under the radar, and it honestly becomes hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. Right now – with UFC records of 3-2 and 2-3 respectively, it’s hard to say where Hadzovic and Giagos fall in the bigger picture.

Giagos debuted in the UFC back in 2014 and sandwiched a win over Jorge de Oliveira between losses to Gilbert Burns and Chris Wade. A grappler by trade, it appeared that Giagos had simply come to the UFC too soon in his career; he clearly had skills but didn’t really have the athleticism or strength to use them properly in the UFC.

A run of 4-2 was put together on the regional circuit, and Giagos returned to the UFC last year – but didn’t really appear to have improved a lot in a one-sided loss to Charles Oliveira. He did defeat Mizuto Hirota last December, but unfortunately Hirota was miles past his prime at that point and has always lacked some athleticism himself.

Hadzovic on the other hand certainly doesn’t lack athleticism and explosive power, as we saw when he KO’d Marcin Held with a vicious knee back in 2017. Realistically, in the UFC at least, the only issue we’ve seen him have has been with the stifling grappling game of Alan Patrick. Sure, he was KO’d by Mairbek Taisumov, but there’s simply no way that Giagos pulls that type of finish out.

The fact that Hadzovic survived Patrick – a genuine BJJ black belt – on the ground for three rounds despite giving up some horrendous positions bodes well for him in my opinion. If he could stop Patrick from choking him out, then I just don’t see what Giagos – a much lesser, slower athlete – can really do to catch him out.

On the feet on the other hand, this should be no contest as the Bosnian fighter is just a far harder hitter than Giagos and seems to be more of a natural striker, too. I’m not sure that Giagos can take him down and I don’t trust him to be able to work his way to a decision, so I think Hadzovic is going to deal with him pretty early and violently too.

The Pick: Hadzovic via first round KO

#6 Daniel Teymur vs. Sung Bin Jo

Daniel Teymur has thus far struggled in the UFC

This one seems like a weird choice for a main card fight, to be honest. Teymur – the brother of UFC Lightweight David – is winless in three attempts in the UFC and has hardly looked great in any of those fights.

A striker by trade, ‘Kid Dynamite’ has shown that his ground game lags miles behind his kickboxing one, and all three of his opponents have exploited that to defeat him.

Jo meanwhile is the latest Korean talent to enter the UFC; he’s bringing in a 9-0 record but judging by how his opponents looked in the footage I’ve seen of him, he’s largely been snacking on overmatched foes thus far. From what I can see of ‘The Korean Falcon’, he’s mainly an aggressive striker – although he does have a pair of submission wins to his name.

Could a striking style play into Teymur’s hands? Perhaps; Jo looks wild even on his highlight reel, and clearly leaves himself open to counters, but with that said, he’s definitely got some power and appears to be an A+ athlete, and that’s seemingly been enough to get him this far.

Realistically Jo may well decide to look for takedowns here due to Teymur’s clearly porous ground game, but I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see him coming to trade. If the fight goes down like that it’s anyone’s really but as I’ve not been convinced by Teymur at all in this run, I’ll take the newcomer.

The Pick: Jo via unanimous decision

#7 The Prelims: ESPN2 card

Veteran Tonya Evinger headlines the prelim card

The preliminary fights for this card are all on ESPN2, an interesting move considering it’ll be an afternoon show in the US.

Headlining the prelims are Bantamweights Tonya Evinger and Lina Lansberg. Evinger is an interesting case in that had women’s MMA been brought to the UFC in the pre-Rousey era she could’ve been a contender, but as it is she feels past her prime and seems to lack the athleticism needed to get to the top at this point, as we saw in her loss to Aspen Ladd.

Lansberg meanwhile has developed from a Cris Cyborg victim to a generally reliable action fighter, albeit a limited one due to her style, primarily a clinch striker. The smart pick here might be Evinger via submission, but I don’t trust her to be able to get Lansberg down, and so I’m taking ‘Elbow Queen’ via TKO.

TUF Brazil 2 winner Leonardo Santos returns at Lightweight for the first time since October 2016 (!) to face Stevie Ray in what ought to be a striker vs. grappler bout. A couple of years ago I’d have taken Santos to tap Ray easily due to his insane BJJ skills, but now he’s 39 years old and who knows what he has left in the tank?

Ray has solid takedown defense and strikes with power, but I’m risking a pick for Santos here; his striking is pretty decent now and despite his age, he hasn’t taken too much damage over the years. Santos via submission is the pick.

Also at Lightweight, Nick Hein takes on late replacement Frank Camacho. This feels a lot like Camacho’s fight with Drew Dober to me – strange as Hein is actually Dober’s brother-in-law! Essentially Camacho’s insane chin and aggression should keep him in the fight, but I think Hein is the more technical fighter in all areas, so that should take him to a decision.

In a rare Featherweight fight, debutants Bea Malecki and Duda Santanna make their UFC debuts. This one’s almost impossible to pick; footage on both women is sparse and Malecki is just 2-0, Santanna 3-0. An extensive kickboxing background makes me lean towards Malecki, but who knows really.

At 205lbs, Darko Stosic faces Devin Clark in a battle of two hard-nosed strikers. Stosic is all brute power, a short-ish Light-Heavyweight at 6’0”, he hits extremely hard but looks wound quite tightly in the cage which might be a concern. Clark meanwhile has shown some skills at times, but he’s also shown a tendency to leave himself open – and so I’m taking Stosic via KO here.

Finally at Lightweight, Joel Alvarez takes on Danillo Belluardo in the latter’s UFC debut. Spain’s Alvarez did little to convince in his own UFC debut, but then Italy’s Belluardo is largely unproven against top level opposition too. I’ll go with Belluardo but it’s a bit of a guess given I don’t know that much about either man.