UFC Fight Night 153: Gustafsson vs. Smith - Predictions and Picks

#2 Volkan Oezdemir vs. Ilir Latifi

Can Ilir Latifi out-power Volkan Oezdemir?

Another clash in the Light-Heavyweight division, this has more European flavour as it features a Swiss fighter in Oezdemir against a Swedish one in Latifi.

The fact that both men are still heavily involved in the title picture despite coming off losses – Oezdemir three in a row – probably says a lot about the current state of 205lbs, but they’re both quality fighters so let’s not get into that too much.

In all honesty Oezdemir might have his back to the wall here. I don’t think the UFC would cut him off a loss due to the thin nature of 205lbs, but a loss would certainly mark the end of his time as a top ten fighter I think.

As many – including myself – suspected, ‘No Time’ has simply been unable to hold the momentum that took him to a title shot following quick KO wins over Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa.

In hindsight, while those wins were impressive, they look more and more to be the product of both Cirkunov and Manuwa having questionable chins more than anything Oezdemir is capable of.

He was crushed by Daniel Cormier on the ground, couldn’t knock Anthony Smith out and blew up quite badly trying, and while his fight against prospect Dominick Reyes was an underrated war of attrition, he never really came close to finishing ‘The Devastator’ and was hurt himself on numerous occasions.

Essentially then, Oezdemir is a fundamentally solid striker with good but not great punching power, and although he’s defensively sound and has a strong chin, he’s definitely vulnerable on the ground and has a nasty penchant for gassing out.

Latifi is almost the polar opposite of his opponent, which makes this a fascinating fight. A stout wrestler, at just 5’8” there’s an argument to suggest Latifi shouldn’t even be fighting at 205lbs. But he’s simply too muscular to make 185lbs and would lose a lot of what brings him to the table if he did shed some of that size.

Essentially, he lives up to his ‘Sledgehammer’ moniker in every possible way. Technically speaking he’s not a great striker at all – he leaves himself open to being hit, is susceptible to body shots and can be picked apart and even knocked out – but he has insanely clubbing power that he’s used to shock his opponents and has 3 KO’s in the UFC alone.

On the ground is where his real strength lies, though. His wrestling game is again based around sheer power; he’s not the best technically, as we saw when he was comfortably outgrappled by Corey Anderson, but he can usually take his opponents down and once in top position, he throws some brutal ground-and-pound and can also latch onto brute strength-based submissions, too – his guillotine in particular is nasty, as it appears like he’s attempting to twist his opponent’s head clean off.

This should essentially come down to whether Oezdemir can take Latifi out with something heavy early on. If he can’t do that then I’m not sure he can stop ‘The Sledgehammer’ from taking him down, and from there based on what I’ve seen this should be Latifi’s fight to lose.

Given that Latifi’s only been taken out by strikes twice in the UFC – one a total hail mary strike from Ryan Bader’s knee that’ll be almost impossible to replicate – I’m thinking that Oezdemir will fail to get rid of him and then will succumb to the Swede’s ground assault.

The Pick: Latifi via unanimous decision