UFC Fight Night 153: Gustafsson vs. Smith - Predictions and Picks

#7 The Prelims: ESPN2 card

Veteran Tonya Evinger headlines the prelim card

The preliminary fights for this card are all on ESPN2, an interesting move considering it’ll be an afternoon show in the US.

Headlining the prelims are Bantamweights Tonya Evinger and Lina Lansberg. Evinger is an interesting case in that had women’s MMA been brought to the UFC in the pre-Rousey era she could’ve been a contender, but as it is she feels past her prime and seems to lack the athleticism needed to get to the top at this point, as we saw in her loss to Aspen Ladd.

Lansberg meanwhile has developed from a Cris Cyborg victim to a generally reliable action fighter, albeit a limited one due to her style, primarily a clinch striker. The smart pick here might be Evinger via submission, but I don’t trust her to be able to get Lansberg down, and so I’m taking ‘Elbow Queen’ via TKO.

TUF Brazil 2 winner Leonardo Santos returns at Lightweight for the first time since October 2016 (!) to face Stevie Ray in what ought to be a striker vs. grappler bout. A couple of years ago I’d have taken Santos to tap Ray easily due to his insane BJJ skills, but now he’s 39 years old and who knows what he has left in the tank?

Ray has solid takedown defense and strikes with power, but I’m risking a pick for Santos here; his striking is pretty decent now and despite his age, he hasn’t taken too much damage over the years. Santos via submission is the pick.

Also at Lightweight, Nick Hein takes on late replacement Frank Camacho. This feels a lot like Camacho’s fight with Drew Dober to me – strange as Hein is actually Dober’s brother-in-law! Essentially Camacho’s insane chin and aggression should keep him in the fight, but I think Hein is the more technical fighter in all areas, so that should take him to a decision.

In a rare Featherweight fight, debutants Bea Malecki and Duda Santanna make their UFC debuts. This one’s almost impossible to pick; footage on both women is sparse and Malecki is just 2-0, Santanna 3-0. An extensive kickboxing background makes me lean towards Malecki, but who knows really.

At 205lbs, Darko Stosic faces Devin Clark in a battle of two hard-nosed strikers. Stosic is all brute power, a short-ish Light-Heavyweight at 6’0”, he hits extremely hard but looks wound quite tightly in the cage which might be a concern. Clark meanwhile has shown some skills at times, but he’s also shown a tendency to leave himself open – and so I’m taking Stosic via KO here.

Finally at Lightweight, Joel Alvarez takes on Danillo Belluardo in the latter’s UFC debut. Spain’s Alvarez did little to convince in his own UFC debut, but then Italy’s Belluardo is largely unproven against top level opposition too. I’ll go with Belluardo but it’s a bit of a guess given I don’t know that much about either man.