UFC Fight Night 154: Moicano vs. Korean Zombie - Predictions and Picks

After a rare UFC-less weekend, the world’s biggest MMA promotion is back this Saturday for yet another show on the ESPN+ streaming service. This time it’s UFC Fight Night 154: Moicano vs. Korean Zombie, and it’s the first UFC show to ever take place in the state of South Carolina.

In terms of name value, the show isn’t that heavy, but there’s a remarkable amount of reliable action fighters on the card; from the two men in the main event to the likes of John Lineker, Bryan Barbarena and Kevin Holland elsewhere, and that alone should make it a show worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 154: Moicano vs. Korean Zombie.

---

#1 Renato Moicano vs. Chan Sung Jung

The Korean Zombie is one of the UFC's most popular fighters

We haven’t seen cult favourite Chan Sung Jung – AKA ‘The Korean Zombie’ – since his wild November 2018 loss to Yair Rodriguez, another instant classic put on by the former WEC 145lber.

The seven-month layoff actually hasn’t been too long for the Zombie’s standards, however, given he’d only fought once between August 2013 and that fight in November. Basically, it’s nice to have him back so quickly.

Opponent Moicano is coming off a loss too, in his case to Jose Aldo in February. Prior to that the Brazilian had been looking like a potential future title contender; he was 5-1 in the UFC with the only loss being a last-gasp submission against Brian Ortega, and his wins over Jeremy Stephens, Cub Swanson and Calvin Kattar had all impressed hugely.

Moicano was actually doing very well against Aldo too, using his long frame – he stands at 5’11” – to snipe at the former champion from the outside and land counter shots, but Aldo simply overwhelmed him with sheer savagery in the early part of the second round and he succumbed to a TKO soon after, the first time he’d been stopped by strikes in his career.

To me this is a very interesting fight for a number of different reasons. If Moicano were to win then he’d regain a lot of the momentum he lost to Aldo, and it’d be very possible that he could find himself in a No. 1 contender’s fight next time out, if we assume Alexander Volkanovski has first dibs on the Max Holloway/Frankie Edgar winner.

If Jung were to win though, it’d almost certainly vault the Zombie back into the top 5 – somewhere he hasn’t occupied for a long time – and a fight with someone like Ortega or a rematch with Aldo would surely be in his future.

Jung is a fascinating fighter in that despite his reputation as a wild brawler, he’s actually a far more technical striker than a lot of people realise.

He’s got an excellent jab, and uses it to set up his bigger shots; punches like the coffin-nail uppercut he used to knock out Dennis Bermudez in 2017, for instance. Sure, he relies far too much on his chin and definitely takes too much damage for his own good, but then he is the Korean Zombie after all.

On the ground he’s no slouch either – everyone remembers his crazy twister submission of Leonard Garcia in 2011, but it’s very easy to forget that he actually made his name in his early days in Japan as a grappler, picking up five submission wins in his first 9 fights.

Moicano is a more disciplined striker; his long frame allows him to strike well from the outside while largely avoiding damage, and we’ve seen him use that base to pick up a couple of his better wins.

Swanson was knocked down by a particularly stiff jab and that set up Moicano’s rear naked choke finish, while Stephens was largely picked apart by Moicano’s movement and leg kicks.

My instant reaction is to suggest that Moicano could probably pick Jung off from the outside in a similar fashion to how he did Stephens.

He’s got a two-inch height advantage and although both men apparently have a 72” reach, Moicano is far more adept at striking from range. If he can work his leg kicks from the beginning of the fight then he could definitely slow the Zombie down and pick him apart.

The issue I’ve got with that is the way in which Aldo took Moicano out. Stephens kept on firing haymakers from the outside that were easily avoided by Moicano, but Aldo on the other hand waded into the pocket with wild strikes, and once he landed, Moicano essentially folded under the pressure.

It’s always a risk wading into the pocket like that with a striker the calibre of Moicano, but if anyone could replicate that Aldo finish, it’s Jung, who has a chin of iron and isn’t likely to be suddenly KO’d, despite being knocked out by that wild elbow from Yair Rodriguez last year.

I’m relatively confident that this fight will be a wash if it does hit the ground; Jung is a good enough grappler to survive anything Moicano can throw at him despite the Brazilian’s strong Jiu-Jitsu background and neither man is a real ground-and-pound artist.

That means I think it’ll be a striking match and I’m going to hedge my bets on the Zombie, even if he loses the first round or two. At some stage he’ll be able to wade in and swing from the pocket, and I think the fight ends shortly after.

The Pick: Jung via fourth round TKO

#2 John Lineker vs. Rob Font

John Lineker beat this weekend's opponent Rob Font back in 2016

This Bantamweight bout should be chock-full of action as it features two of the most exciting strikers in the division. Fascinatingly, it’s also a rematch, as the two men first faced off at UFC 198 just over three years ago, with Lineker taking a decision victory in his second bout in the UFC at Bantamweight.

We haven’t seen Font since December, when he smacked around the much smaller Sergio Pettis and made full use of his lanky 5’8” frame. Lineker meanwhile was last seen in an exciting fight with Cory Sandhagen, but unfortunately for ‘Hands of Stone’, he came out on the wrong end of a tight decision – likely ending his hopes of ever gaining a title shot.

This is somewhat of a weird one in that if you ignore their first fight, you’d probably say Font might have an advantage.

At 5’8” he’s a tall Bantamweight, a massive contrast to the shorter Lineker, who stands at just 5’3” and will be giving up 4.5” of reach.

Lineker loves to wade into the pocket to throw his trademark hooks to the body and head, but you’d have thought that Font would be able to snipe at him from range and avoid that.

The problem though is that in their first fight, Font wasn’t able to do that at all. Lineker simply kept pushing forward, closing the distance, and basically beat the taller man up from close range with said hooks. The Brazilian even landed some good takedowns to do some damage from on the ground, too.

Essentially it felt like Font simply couldn’t handle the pressure that Lineker was able to put on him, and the same problem reared its head for the American when he faced Raphael Assuncao last year; Assuncao found it far too easy to walk the taller man down and plant him with takedowns with little resistance.

Lineker may well have slowed down since that 2016 fight; he was less active in the Sandhagen fight than we often see, but that could also have a lot to do with the toughness of Sandhagen, and it’s only been a year since we saw a vintage Lineker showing against Brian Kelleher.

All in all I just don’t think either man has changed a lot since the first fight, and given Lineker won that one with relative ease I can’t pick Font in good conscience here. Could Lineker pick up a finish? Possibly, but I’m more inclined for a total repeat of the first fight and so I’ll go Lineker via decision.

The Pick: Lineker via unanimous decision

#3 Bryan Barbarena vs. Randy Brown

Bryan Barbarena has become known for his hard-nosed style

A workmanlike fighter who’s been in the UFC since 2014, Barbarena was one of those guys who just floated around on prelim cards and didn’t stand out at all until he upset the then-hyped Sage Northcutt in 2016.

A big win over hot prospect Warlley Alves followed, and for a moment it looked like ‘Bam Bam’ could be an unlikely title contender. That wasn’t the case though as he has since lost to Colby Covington and Leon Edwards, fights which pushed him into the realm of a tough gatekeeper.

That toughness was on full display in his wild February fight with Vicente Luque, a fight that saw Barbarena somehow take an inhuman amount of punishment and even give some back before finally giving up the ghost in the third round. Quite how he’s back so soon I don’t know, but he is, once again showing his toughness.

This fight pits him against Brown, one of the earliest graduates of the now irrelevant Lookin’ For A Fight show.

A lanky 6’3” 170lber, ‘Rude Boy’ made a good start to his UFC career, going 4-2 with his only losses coming to tough wrestlers Michael Graves and Belal Muhammad.

Essentially, Brown fights exactly how you’d expect a lanky guy to fight – a lot of striking from the outside and a tricky ground game thanks to his long limbs.

Unfortunately, he just isn’t the best striker, as he has a tendency to hold his chin high while he’s putting combinations together, and as we saw in his last loss to Niko Price – which came almost a year ago – his chin isn’t that strong either. For those who’ve forgotten, Price somehow managed to knock the Jamaican out with hammer fists.....from the bottom.

In terms of how these two match up, for me it’s a pretty clean sweep for Barbarena. Sure, Brown is the far superior athlete and he’s the much more dynamic fighter when it comes to offense, but Barbarena is one of those hard-nosed wrestlers who’s just super-tough to actually hurt and put away.

Outside of Luque – who is one of the most ruthless finishers in MMA right now – the only guys to really beat Barbarena were those capable of beating him at his own game.

I just don’t see Brown being one of those guys – he’s too easy to take down and I’m just not confident that he can wear the punishment that a fight with Barbarena inevitably involves.

Sure, Barbarena’s chin might’ve been cracked by Luque, but even then I’m not sure Brown has the kind of one-shot offense to put him away. I can see this being classic Barbarena fare; he’ll wear down the more explosive fighter and get him out of there down the stretch.

The Pick: Barbarena via second round TKO

#4 Andrea Lee vs. Montana De La Rosa

Andrea Lee could be a future title contender at Flyweight

Women’s Flyweight is still very much a division in flux; sure, there’s a dominant champion now in Valentina Shevchenko, but the spots right underneath her are very much there for the taking, and given these women have a combined record of 5-0 in the UFC and 20-6 overall, the winner of this one could easily find themselves vaulted into contention.

Of the two, Lee has garnered the most hype; ‘KGB’ was brought into the UFC last year as a vaunted prospect, having won the LFA Flyweight title on two occasions with her only losses coming to longtime veterans Roxanne Modafferi and Sarah D’Alelio.

An accomplished kickboxer with numerous Muay Thai titles to her name, Lee actually used her strong ground game to beat Veronica Macedo in her UFC debut before largely outstriking Ashlee Evans-Smith to pick up her second win.

De La Rosa meanwhile came from the largely-overlooked TUF 26 season and fell short in her goal of becoming the first UFC Flyweight champ, losing to eventual winner Nicco Montano in the Quarter-Finals of the title tournament. Since then though, she’s gone 3-0 in the Octagon and has looked excellent, using her dangerous ground game to submit all three of her opponents with relative ease.

The wife of fellow UFC fighter Mark De La Rosa, it’s pretty clear that Montana will want this fight on the ground when you consider she’s got eight submission wins in 10 fights. The issue for her in my opinion though is that Lee is probably the best fighter she’s faced in this UFC run and while her record looks strong, she was snacking on extremely low-level opposition prior to making it to the UFC.

Most notably – and it is hard to quantify how much each belt colour means due to differences in instructors and so forth – Lee is a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under renowed instructor Relson Gracie, while De La Rosa has a purple belt, one step below a brown. That suggests to me that De La Rosa cannot expect to simply run through Lee on the ground as she’s done to previous opponents.

If De La Rosa can’t dominate Lee on the ground, then I can’t see her winning this fight. Lee is simply a far superior striker and should have enough to hold her own if not come out on top on the ground, too. I wouldn’t be surprised in fact if this is a surprisingly one-sided fight in favour of ‘KGB’.

The Pick: Lee via unanimous decision

#5 Kevin Holland vs. Alessio Di Chirico

Italy's Alessio Di Chirico hasn't fought since last July

It’s been almost a year since Holland made a surprisingly entertaining UFC debut, pushing current title challenger Thiago Santos to the limit in the Brazilian’s last fight at 185lbs. Sure, Santos largely dominated Holland but it never truly felt like he was out of the fight, and since then he’s beaten a pair of pretty tough veterans in John Phillips and Gerald Meerschaert.

Di Chirico meanwhile has been a rare Italian success in the UFC; he’s currently 3-2 in the Octagon and has won his last two fights, including an entertaining decision victory over highly regarded prospect Julian Marquez last summer. The classic jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none, Di Chirico is solid in all areas, most notably in his striking. He’s shown some issues with takedowns, but generally looks to be solid on the ground too.

Holland seems to be a similarly well-rounded fighter with no real outstanding area, which is why this fight is very tricky to pick. I’m honestly not confident in going either way really as I feel like this could be a back-and-forth fight that’s likely to go the distance; both men have only been stopped once, via submission, and they seem tough enough to be able to survive the punishment that the other will dish out.

The x factor for me could be activity levels; Holland made his debut last August and now has 3 UFC fights under his belt, the last being his victory over Meerschaert in March. Di Chirico on the other hand hasn’t fought since last July, has pulled out of two fights since, and has also gone through an undisclosed surgery. If a fight’s that tight to pick then I’m happier to go with the fighter who’s been more active, and so I’m taking Holland via a tight decision here.

The Pick: Holland via split decision

#6 Ashley Yoder vs. Syuri Kondo

Ashley Yoder has had some hard luck thus far in her UFC career

Okay, so given the cumulative UFC record of these two Strawweight fighters is 2-5, I’m honestly not sure how it’s made the main card of this show. Perhaps I’m being unfair and the UFC matchmakers know more than me about which fights will be exciting – admittedly, that’s quite often the case – but it’s honestly tricky to justify the position of this one.

To be fair, Yoder could perhaps claim she’s had a raw deal throughout her UFC career. Debuting back in 2016 following a failed run on TUF, ‘Spider Monkey’ was outpointed by Justine Kish in a fight that Kish came into over the Strawweight limit. She then lost a pair of split decisions to Angela Hill and Mackenzie Dern, both of which could’ve gone to Yoder on different days, before outpointing Amanda Cooper to pick up her first UFC win in November.

From what I’ve seen of her, Yoder is a functional striker who’s pretty good at countering an onrushing opponent, but her grappling might be her bread and butter. Obviously she didn’t attempt to use it against Dern – a notable BJJ artist – but it was the area that gave her success against Hill and led her to the win over Cooper.

Kondo meanwhile – usually better known by her first name Syuri – is apparently a pro-wrestler of some regard in Japan. Unfortunately, her MMA career hasn’t gone that well thus far. She won her first 5 fights, all in Pancrase, and then edged her UFC debut against Chan-Mi Jeon, but was destroyed by Polania Botelho via TKO in less than a minute and then comfortably lost to Xiaonan Yang, too.

Kondo does have an impressive background in Shoot Boxing – she’s 13-1 in the sport – but it’s very different to full-contact MMA and to be honest, she hasn’t shown me that she’s a UFC-level fighter thus far in her Octagon stint.

I like Yoder here; Kondo has only been fighting since 2016 and hasn’t shown anything to suggest she can hang at the elite level, and while I wouldn’t class Yoder as a top-level opponent just yet, she’s shown flashes of potential and the fact that she was able to do well against the likes of Hill and Dern who are certainly well-regarded suggests to me that she’s got enough to deal with her Japanese foe here.

The Pick: Yoder via unanimous decision

#7 The Prelims: ESPN2 card

'Violent Bob Ross' Luis Pena highlights the preliminary card

All of Saturday’s preliminary bouts are being shown on ESPN2, and there are some intriguing fights on offer even if there’s little to no name value here.

A battle of two tough-as-nails Featherweights headlines, as Dan Ige takes on Kevin Aguilar. Both men have looked good in their Octagon appearances thus far, but Ige has been slightly more impressive in my opinion, particularly in his last win, a tapout of the talented Danny Henry. I’ll take Ige via decision.

At Lightweight, 13-year UFC veteran Matt Wiman returns following over four years on the shelf to face off with Luis Pena, otherwise known as the ‘Violent Bob Ross’. Pena is actually more than a gimmick – he’s a very talented fighter in all areas, but he hasn’t done quite as well in the UFC thus far as was expected, as he seems to rely too much on his physical gifts to get by. That could still be enough to get him past Wiman, though, as Wiman probably peaked somewhere around 2011 and you’ve got to question anyone who’s been out of action for as long as he has. I like Pena via decision here.

Allen Crowder, the first man to defeat Greg Hardy in MMA, returns to take on feared striker Jairzinho Rozenstruik in a Heavyweight bout. Rozenstruik looked excellent in his UFC debut, violently stopping Junior Albini, and while Crowder was able to survive Hardy’s early barrages, ‘Bigi Boy’ is far more experienced in fighting than the former NFL star. Given Crowder showed a questionable chin when he fought Justin Willis, and Rozenstruik was able to survive Albini on the ground, I think it’ll be the Surinamese fighter who comes out on top here. Rozenstruik via first round KO is my pick.

At Flyweight, Ariane Lipski faces Molly McCann in a pivotal fight for both women. Lipski came into the UFC with some hype only to fall short against Joanne Calderwood, but McCann is a very different fighter to the Scotswoman, as she’s more of a tough brawler than a technician and even in her recent win over Priscila Cachoeira she took a lot of damage. Lipski might be more limited than we first suspected but I think she’s got enough firepower to stop McCann in the second here.

At 185lbs, Deron Winn – a top wrestler and noted protégé of Daniel Cormier – makes his UFC debut to take on late replacement Eric Spicely, actually the third man to take this fight following the withdrawals of Bruno Silva and Markus Perez. This should be a winnable fight for Winn – he’s a massively superior athlete and should be able to take Spicely down at will, but could find himself in trouble with the crafty grappling of the veteran if he does. Thankfully for him Spicely isn’t the best striker, and Winn has shown heavy hands in his earlier fights, albeit against much lower-level opposition. I’ll take Winn by TKO, but wouldn’t be surprised to see Spicely spring the upset.

Finally Bantamweights Andre Ewell and Anderson Dos Santos open the card. Ewell impressed with his toughness and striking in his UFC debut over former champ Renan Barao, but lost to Nathaniel Wood in his last fight – not that there’s any shame in that as Wood is a fantastic prospect. I’m pretty confident he’s got enough to deal with Dos Santos here, as the Brazilian lost his UFC debut handily and only made it to the promotion as a late replacement. I’ll take Ewell via decision.