#5 Marvin Vettori vs. Cezar Ferreira
It’s hard to believe that Cezar Ferreira – AKA ‘Cezar Mutante’, one of the original winners of TUF Brazil – has now been in the UFC for 7 years and has put together 14 fights there. A tremendous athletic specimen, Ferreira has had some great highlights in the Octagon but also some huge lows too; essentially, at least until recently, he was a classic example of a glass cannon, incredible on offense but unable to weather punishment himself.
2018 seemed to prove a turning point for him, though. In his win over Karl Roberson he was quick to ground a known heavy hitter and used his superb BJJ to find a dominant position and submit the kickboxer.
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It felt like Mutante might’ve been finally putting it all together – but his next fight saw him gas hard against newcomer Ian Heinisch and any hopes of him making it to the top of the division seemed to vanish.
Vettori has had a similar up-and-down UFC career, although not in the same way. He’s 2-2-1 in the UFC at Middleweight, with his most recent fight being a tight loss to Israel Adesanya – largely before Adesanya had gotten really comfortable inside the cage.
Vettori had some success in clinching and grappling with Adesanya, and really that’s where the Italian’s strength lies. He’s a powerful guy at 185lbs, can outmuscle opponents in the clinch and he’s excellent with submissions, having 8 tapout wins on his ledger.
This is a strange fight to pick in that you’d expect it to favour Ferreira on paper; he’s faced with an opponent who likely won’t take advantage of his questionable chin, and he’s also faced with a hugely inferior athlete who won’t have his usual strength and power advantage, and who also appears to be an inferior submission grappler than Ferreira.
The problem for ‘Mutante’ however is that Heinisch ticked all the same boxes that Vettori ticks – perhaps he’s a better wrestler, but that’s it – and despite a strong first round, the Brazilian wasn’t able to put his opponent away and faded badly down the stretch.
So basically this depends on whether you believe Ferreira simply had a bad night, or whether his athletic gifts are beginning to wane.
If there’s a finish here I suspect it’ll be Ferreira with a very early submission, but based on the fact that he’s 34 years old now and has been fighting professionally for 12 years – taking plenty of damage along the way – I’m willing to bet that the Heinisch loss could be the beginning of a trend. As long as Vettori survives the opening round here, I think this one is his.
The Pick: Vettori via unanimous decision