#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card
ESPN+ will be showing a total of 7 prelims this weekend, some of which sound more exciting than a few of the main card fights.
One that doesn’t, unfortunately, is the top prelim between Light-Heavyweights Mike Rodriguez and John Allan, who is replacing Gian Villante on late notice.
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Currently 1-1 in the UFC, Rodriguez is the classic Contender Series product – a heavy hitter with KO power who also has some holes in his game. Is Allan the guy to test those holes? I doubt it; sure, he’s a Chute Boxe product but that doesn’t hold the weight it once did, and he’s taking the fight on 9 days notice!
He’s a hard hitter too so I’m purely basing this pick on the fact that Rodriguez has UFC experience and has had time to prepare for a plodding hard hitter in Villante. Rodriguez by late TKO is my pick.
The Featherweight fight between Andre Fili and Sheymon Moraes should be wild, and I’m surprised it’s not on the main card. Moraes is a hell of a kickboxer, which is worrying for Fili here as he’s more on the sloppy-but-effective side and is willing to fire with anyone, but he does have a big grappling advantage.
The fact that Fili has taken so much damage in a relatively short UFC career is making me lean towards Moraes winning a striking-based decision here.
At Bantamweight, Julianna Pena makes her long-awaited return – on late notice, too – to take on former Flyweight champion Nicco Montano.
At her best I’d have taken Pena in a heartbeat here; she’s a phenomenal grappler from the top position and holds a big size advantage, too. She has been out for a long time, but then so has Montano, who hasn’t fought since her win over Roxanne Modafferi in 2017. I’m willing to risk that Pena will outgrapple Montano for a decision.
Featherweight veterans Darren Elkins and Ryan Hall face off next, with the two on differing trajectories; Hall is 3-0 in the UFC while Elkins is coming off two straight losses.
For me, this should come down to whether Elkins can avoid Hall’s phenomenal submission skills, as I’d argue he’s superior in all other areas. Given Elkins hasn’t been tapped since 2010 I’m guessing he can, so I’ll take Elkins via decision.
At Strawweight, potential contender Livinha Souza faces newcomer Brianna Van Buren, who has a trio of wins over UFC veterans in Jaime Moyle, Juliana Lima, and Kailin Curran. I just can’t see her beating Souza, though, who is an excellent striker and a genuinely brilliant grappler with some well-timed takedowns. Souza’s experience should pull her through here and I like her to pick up a submission.
Bantamweights Pingyuan Liu and Jonathan Martinez go to war with both men showing some excellent promise in their previous fights. Martinez was gutsy against Andre Soukhamthath in his UFC debut and then outworked Wuliji Buren for a decision in his last fight, while Liu – who trains with Urijah Faber – is already 2-0 in the Octagon.
It’s a tough one to pick as both men are good athletes with decent skills in all areas, but I like Martinez to eke out a decision.
Finally, another Bantamweight fight sees prospect Benito Lopez face the tough Vince Morales, who’s another late replacement fighter on this card.
Lopez – a wildly aggressive fighter in all areas – looked tremendous in his UFC debut, and his last loss to Manny Bermudez was nothing to be ashamed of. Morales meanwhile has shown a lot of guts in his UFC tenure but not all that much to be really excited about. I like Lopez to use his wild aggression to win this one, likely by submission.