UFC Fight Night 156: Shevchenko vs. Carmouche II - Predictions and Picks

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Exciting debutant Ciryl Gane headlines the prelims

All of Saturday’s preliminary bouts will also be shown on ESPN+, and strangely, we’ve only got 4 confirmed fights right now, as 3 others have been hit by injuries and late replacements have been sought – and haven’t been officially confirmed by the UFC just yet.

At the top of the card – at least I think – is a Heavyweight fight between newcomers Ciyrl Gane and Raphael Pessoa Nunes.

Gane – a native of France – is just 3-0 in his career thus far but it must be said, with his huge, powerful frame, terrifying athleticism and hard strikes, it’s easy to make a comparison with Francis Ngannou.

Gane doesn’t seem nearly as polished as Ngannou was when he made his own UFC debut, but I think he’ll have enough to take out Pessoa here with pure speed and brute force; Pessoa is a fellow striker rather than the grappling type who will likely test Gane later down the road. Gane by TKO is my pick.

At Strawweight, perennial gatekeeper Tecia Torres takes on Marina Rodriguez. It’s a fascinating fight for Torres as it’s the first time she’s coming in as the betting favourite since her 2017 win over Julianna Lima, and it’s easy to forget quite how good she is given she’s lost her last three fights.

At her best, she’s a very skilled striker who puts together ultra-quick combinations along with a stout grappling game, and her lone weakness really is a lack of stopping power. Rodriguez has looked strong thus far but I just don’t see elite potential in her and that’s what you need to beat Torres. I’ll take Torres via decision here.

Next we have a Flyweight fight between Rogerio Bontorin and Raulian Paiva. Bontorin – a much hyped prospect – outworked Magomed Bibulatov in impressive fashion in his first fight, and given Paiva didn’t show a lot in his own UFC debut, a loss to Kai Kara-France, it’s hard to see him having much success here. I’d expect Bontorin to get into title contention – assuming the division survives – in the near future and I’ll take him by TKO here.

At Bantamweight, Geraldo de Freitas faces Chris Gutierrez. De Freitas, an excellent grappler, made good on his UFC debut in February while Gutierrez picked up his own first UFC win earlier this year over Ryan MacDonald. I worry for him here though – he was comfortably outgrappled by Raoni Barcelos last year and the same could happen again here. De Freitas by submission is my pick.

The following three fights aren’t official yet but are expected to be confirmed any time soon. First, Alex Da Silva takes on Rodrigo Vargas at Lightweight, with both looking for their first UFC win.

Vargas looks like a solid fighter in all areas with plenty of aggression, but the late notice for him is worrying. Da Silva meanwhile snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in his UFC debut, being choked out by veteran Alexander Yakovlev despite outgrappling him for a round. Da Silva via decision seems like the smart pick but this could go either way.

At Flyweight, Veronica Macedo takes on Polyana Viana in what could be the last chance saloon for Macedo, who has lost her last three fights.

Viana meanwhile looked good in her UFC debut, but has struggled to impose herself since, largely due to a weaker striking game. This could go either way really and I don’t expect the loser back, but a hunch tells me to take Macedo, who has shown more aggression in her previous outings. I’ll go Macedo via decision.

Finally at Welterweight, Russian striker Alexey Kunchenko takes on late replacement Gilbert Burns.

Assuming Burns isn’t coming in totally out of shape, this sounds like a much more tricky fight for Kunchenko than Laureano Staropoli would’ve been.

Burns is an A+ athlete and while his striking is still developing, he packs power and on the ground he’s a genuinely world class talent. Kunchenko might well be able to pick Burns apart on the feet due to the late notice sapping the Brazilian’s cardio, but if Burns can get him down early then it’s his fight to lose.

Given his recent improvements standing, I think ‘Durinho’ can set up his takedowns this time, and so I’ll take him to win with a submission.