UFC Fight Night 157: Andrade vs. Zhang - Predictions and Picks

After a much-welcomed one-week gap from UFC programming last weekend, this weekend sees the world’s biggest MMA promotion return with another ESPN+ Fight Night. This time the show is taking place from China – Shenzhen, to be exact – as the UFC returns to the Chinese mainland for the third time.

This is quite easily the biggest Chinese show to date; it’s still not exactly a blockbuster card, but a title fight at the top – the third on ESPN+ in 2019 – puts it over and above the other two. For the most part though, there’s not a lot here to entice the casual viewer.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 157: Andrade vs. Zhang.

#1 Jessica Andrade vs. Weili Zhang

Andrade took her title from Rose Namajunas in May

Selling Jessica Andrade as a UFC champion – no offense, but ‘Bate Estaca’ isn’t the easiest fighter to market – was always going to be tricky, and so for this fight, her first as reigning Strawweight queen, the promotion has gone the other way and put the focus on the challenger – kind of.

Technically speaking, the top contender in the division right now – ignoring former champ Rose Namajunas for a moment – is feared wrestler Tatiana Suarez, but the former TUF winner is out injured and so instead, needing a main event for this show in China, the UFC have plugged the highest-ranked Chinese contender they’ve got, Weili Zhang, into a somewhat unlikely title challenge.

It’s not that ‘Magnum’ is a bad fighter – she’s not, in fact she’s excellent, and she’s ranked #6 in the world right now. But despite having a ton of skills she hasn’t quite had a breakout performance yet, and that worries me for her against Andrade.

So what does she have going for her? She’s 19-1 right now and has three straight wins in the UFC, including a victory over perennial top gatekeeper Tecia Torres in her last outing. Technically speaking she isn’t the greatest striker, but she throws with both power and volume, and it was that volume that allowed her to outpoint Torres even if she couldn’t really hurt her on the feet.

Zhang also has a venomous ground game, with almost as many submissions to her name as she does knockouts. The majority of those wins came over far lower level opposition, but her armbar victory over former top-ranked Jessica Aguilar last summer was an eye-opener.

The problem for her here though is that I just don’t think she matches up well with Andrade. The champion has been compared to PRIDE legend Wanderlei Silva at times, not only because of her Brazilian heritage but because of her berserker style, but she’s actually a much more nuanced fighter than a simple brute force brawler.

Sure, she was outstruck comprehensively by the fleet-footed combination-based Joanna Jedrzejczyk in her first title challenge – and she was also being beaten to the punch by Namajunas in their fight before pulling off an unlikely victory via a slam – a victory that some would call a fluke.

But nobody else has truly been able to resist her power and volume, including more technical strikers like Torres, Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Claudia Gadelha. She’s simply too strong, too aggressive and pushes too much of a pace for her opponents to keep up with.

For me the two ways to beat Andrade would be using the same gameplan that Jedrzejczyk did – stick and move, using technical striking and excellent defensive skills to pick her apart over the distance – or to be the bigger, stronger fighter in a grappling sense. And while I’d probably guess that Zhang is better on the ground from a technical standpoint, I just don’t see her being capable of outpowering Andrade.

In a bit of a spoiler, I can say assuming Andrade wins here, I’ll pick Suarez to beat her comfortably if that turns out to be the next title fight. But in this one I think the Brazilian will simply have too much for Zhang to handle – ‘Magnum’ won’t be able to outwork her in terms of volume as she did with Torres, she doesn’t have enough KO power to catch her with a counter and finish her, and I can’t see her getting Andrade down. For me if she survives the distance it’d be impressive, but I’m not sure I see that happening either.

The Pick: Andrade via third-round TKO

#2 Elizeu Zaleski Dos Santos vs. Li Jingliang

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos is on a tremendous run at 170lbs

I’ll be honest and say that I fully expected Zaleski to be given a big step up following his March win over Curtis Millender; he’s currently on a 7 fight win streak at 170lbs and dispatched the dangerous Millender with ease to break into the top 15, but then to be fair, the majority of the fighters above him are unavailable right now and Li has a reputation for fantastic fights, so here we are.

The last time we saw Li – the first Chinese fighter to really make an impact in the UFC – was incidentally in the promotion’s last visit to China. That fight saw him engage in a wild brawl with David Zawada before finishing him with an insane superkick to the body, affirming a Dong Hyun Kim-esque transformation from a stifling grappler – hence ‘The Leech’ nickname – to a crazy, exciting striker.

In terms of how he matches with Zaleski, though? It might well serve him well to go back to that stifling wrestling-heavy style. As his nickname suggests, ‘Capoeira’ is one of the most dangerous and unorthodox strikers in the Welterweight division. He might look wild when he throws his combinations together – he’s happy to wing all sorts of spinning attacks at his opponents – but he’s more polished than you’d first expect, as we saw when he picked apart Max Griffin last year.

Sure, he’s a huge risktaker on the feet, but his win over Millender also showed some serious smarts – Millender was a tricky fight for him standing, so Zaleski took him down and used his grappling – he’s a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu – to submit the kickboxer in just over two minutes.

For me then, the outcome here depends on how Li decides to fight. As I hinted at earlier, ‘The Leech’ began his UFC career as a wrestling-heavy grappler, as we saw in his fights with David Michaud and Nordine Taleb. That style hardly endeared him to the fans, though, and kept him firmly in the prelim territory.

Since his 2015 loss to Keita Nakamura though, he’s changed his tack, becoming an awkward, wild and heavy-hitting striker. That style has not only netted him 6 wins in 7 fights, 4 of them by stoppage, but it’s also meant the UFC are much more willing to showcase him; his last 4 fights have been on the main card of shows and obviously, he’s in the co-main event here.

Once you get to a certain level, though – on the cusp of the top 15 – it’s perhaps smarter to fight for wins rather than excitement. Which brings us back to this one. Sure, Zaleski looked excellent on the ground against Millender but despite his BJJ black belt we haven’t really seen him in extended grappling sequences and Li has the kind of wrestling that can sap an opponent’s energy, particularly a flashy striker like the Brazilian.

If Li decides to strike, though? His aggressive and wild ways will likely play into the hands of Zaleski and I wouldn’t bet against him ending up unconscious. Essentially Li has more ways to win, I think, but I just can’t trust that he’ll fight the smart fight. I think he’ll trade off wildly with Zaleski and end up getting knocked out as a result, probably quite early on, too.

The Pick: Zaleski Dos Santos via first-round KO

#3 Kai Kara-France vs. Mark De La Rosa

Kai Kara-France has brought excitement to the cage in all of his UFC outings

It’s quite rare to see a Flyweight fight make a UFC main card these days, but it’s also a breath of fresh air if the promotion really are looking to push their smallest male division again – the recent fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Alexandre Pantoja, for example, was fantastic and was a great advert for what the 125lbers can do given the stage.

Can Kara-France and De La Rosa deliver a similar amount of action? It’s an interesting question. De La Rosa is currently 2-2 in the UFC while Kara-France is 2-0, but it’s safe to say that in the form of former title challenger Tim Elliott, who beat him via anaconda choke in 2017, De La Rosa has faced the stiffer competition.

Hailing from New Zealand, Kara-France is if nothing else an all-action fighter. He doesn’t have the best record – 19-7 with some losses to a lot of unheralded opponents – but he also hasn’t lost since 2016, which has to mean something. Essentially, his biggest strength is his sheer aggression. He’s not the best striker, nor the best grappler, but he can compete decently in both areas and he literally never stops coming forward, making him a difficult, wilting foe.

De La Rosa meanwhile seems to be more of a grappler – he tapped out Elias Garcia impressively in 2018 and it was his takedowns that largely squeaked him a decision against Joby Sanchez, but it was also notable that he was being outstruck by Sanchez, and more worryingly when he faced Alex Perez, his bottom game was massively lacking and he was almost pounded out on numerous occasions.

Kara-France isn’t a polished fighter yet and I think if the UFC were to put him in with a Formiga, Figueiredo or Pantoja right now he’d likely be destroyed, but from the evidence I’ve seen I think he’s on a level slightly above that of De La Rosa so I’ll happily take him to win by decision.

The Pick: Kara-France via unanimous decision

#4 Movsar Evloev vs. Lu Zhenhong

Movsar Evloev won his UFC debut back in April

Russia’s Evloev made his UFC debut back in April at the promotion’s St. Petersburg card, and he brought in quite a lot of hype given his 10-0 record and 7 finishes. Unfortunately, he didn’t quite deliver in terms of action despite whitewashing Sung Woo Choi – essentially, he just outwrestled the Korean for a clear-cut decision.

Evloev was initially pegged to face Darren Till training partner Mike Grundy here in what would’ve been an interesting test for him given Grundy’s size and toughness, but with the Brit sidelined with an injury, the UFC has brought in Chinese fighter Lu Zhenhong on late notice.

The good news? Evloev is a solid prospect to watch and so it’s nice that he’s been able to stay on the card. The bad news? Zhenhong is coming off a loss (although he was on a 9 fight streak prior to that) and he’s already been beaten by Evloev once, back in an M-1 Global bout in 2016.

Their first fight is definitely worth watching to make a call as to who will win this one; the fight largely saw little striking, although it was clear that Zhenhong was the more polished kickboxer. On the ground though, despite some periods of success, the Chinese fighter was largely outclassed by Evloev, who came close with a second-round rear-naked choke en route to a unanimous decision victory.

From the footage I’ve seen on Zhenhong, I’m simply not convinced that he’s improved in the grappling realm enough to get his win back in this one. When you throw in the fact that he’s taken the fight on late notice and will be making his UFC debut, things look even trickier for him. I suspect he may see some success on the feet, but I don’t see him stopping Evloev’s takedown and that’ll lead to his defeat. Evloev will need to round out his game in the future to progress in the UFC, but I think this one should be simple enough for him.

The Pick: Evloev via unanimous decision

#5 Yanan Wu vs. Mizuki Inoue

Yanan Wu will have a likely size advantage against Mizuki Inoue this weekend

Another fight changed due to an injury, this Flyweight bout initially should’ve seen Wu taking on Luana Carolina, but the Brazilian was forced out due to a fractured spine (!) giving us this pairing instead. Inoue is making her UFC debut, but one thing you can’t accuse her of is a lack of experience, as she’s currently 13-5 in MMA, with plenty of fights against UFC veterans, and she’s also got an extensive background in kickboxing.

Wu meanwhile is 1-1 in the UFC but looked excellent in her Flyweight debut last November when she submitted Lauren Mueller with a first-round armbar. Footage on ‘Mulan’ is sparse, but where she may hold an advantage in this fight is in her size. Inoue is a technical fighter, but she’s also a natural 115lber coming up in weight on late notice.

Wu, on the other hand, is a large 125lber, and while she was easily outmuscled by Gina Mazany in their fight at 135lbs, she should have a big size and strength advantage here. With that said, when it comes to all other areas, she’s probably outgunned, as Inoue has been in with the likes of Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Alexa Grasso – top-ranked fighters – and hold her own.

If Inoue can keep Wu off her and prevent her from simply stifling her with her size and grappling, then this should be a winnable fight for her. I’m taking Inoue just on the feeling that her overall skill can pull her through, but it’s a tough task given the size difference and late notice.

The Pick: Inoue via split decision

#6 The Prelims: ESPN card

China's Kenan Song is headlining Saturday's prelims

Strangely enough, all of this weekend’s prelims will be shown on the full ESPN network, which almost makes the show feel back to front. In the UK and elsewhere, of course, it doesn’t matter too much.

At the top of the prelims sits a Welterweight bout between Kenan Song and Derrick Krantz. At one point just a couple of years ago it was near enough impossible to pick a Chinese fighter to win in the UFC unless their name was Li Jingliang, but that isn’t the case now, and Song has looked one of the more solid prospects to come out of the country, as he picked up two TKO wins in the UFC before losing a decision to Alex Morono last year. Journeyman Krantz meanwhile only came into the UFC a few months ago, taking a late notice fight against Vicente Luque that saw him knocked out quickly. Song isn’t the perfect fighter but his heavy hands should serve him well here and I like him to win with another TKO.

At Middleweight, Anthony Hernandez takes on Jun Yong Park in a tricky one to call. Hernandez lost his UFC debut but looked good on DWTNCS prior to that, and Park is largely unheralded and there doesn’t appear to be much footage on him. I’ll take Hernandez via decision in a fight that could honestly go either way.

At Bantamweight, Andre Soukhamthath faces off with Su Mudaerji in a baffling fight given Mudaerji was outclassed in his UFC debut by Louis Smolka while Soukhamthath has always looked pretty solid, the odd brainfart aside. If Mudaerji even lasts the distance here I’ll be surprised. Soukhamthath via TKO is my pick.

A pair of debuting fighters clash at Light-Heavyweight, as Khadis Ibragimov faces Da Un Jung. It’s a strange fight as Ibragimov is actually the third opponent for Jung due to injuries and visa issues sidelining Saparbek Safarov and Jamahal Hill respectively. Both men look pretty tough but despite the late notice I’m more convinced by the footage of Ibragimov. I’ll take the Russian by decision.

Damir Ismagulov returns at Lightweight to face Thiago Moises in what should be a tough fight to pick given both men have shown a lot of skills when they’ve been showcased before. If Ismagulov can keep this fight standing he can definitely win, but I feel like Moises is the superior grappler and I’ll take him to win by decision or submission.

At Bantamweight, we’ve got a pair of rare debutants in the thin division, as Karolline Rosa Cavedo faces Lara Fritzen Procopio. Quite why we’ve got two Brazilians facing each other in China is anyone’s guess, and given the lack of footage and good opposition, it’s anyone’s guess as to who will win, too. I’ll take the unbeaten Procopio by decision.

Finally, at Bantamweight, Mongolia’s Batgerel Danaa faces China’s Heili Alateng. Alateng has a lot of losses on a spotty record, but he’s at least highly experienced; Danaa, on the other hand, has just 7 fights since debuting in 2011, meaning it’s hard to guess what he has in the tank. I’ll take Alateng in a total coin flip.