UFC Fight Night 158: Cowboy vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

After this weekend’s blockbuster UFC 242 show, there’s no slowing down for the promotion as we’re now about to hit a run of another 10 weeks with a UFC show to look forward to. This week we’ve got UFC Fight Night 158, and while the card – which is set to take place in Vancouver, British Columbia – isn’t overly packed with talent, the main event sounds absolutely amazing.

It’s a battle of two of the most exciting fighters in UFC history as Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone faces Justin Gaethje in a Lightweight clash, and elsewhere on the card we’ve got reliable finishers like Todd Duffee, Glover Teixeira and Jimmy Crute, meaning this should theoretically be a night full of violence.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 158: Cowboy vs. Gaethje.

Don't forget!Next week's main event is INSANE! 🔥 #UFCVancouver pic.twitter.com/Qe2CwcO2cO

— UFC (@ufc) September 7, 2019

#1 Donald Cerrone vs. Justin Gaethje

Justin Gaethje has insane punching power - just ask Edson Barboza

Simply put, this fight – on paper at least – sounds like it has the potential to be the very best of 2019. Both Donald Cerrone and Justin Gaethje basically guarantee excitement when they step into the Octagon; neither man has had a dull fight in their UFC careers, and given their sheer aggression, it’s hard to imagine that this could be anything but a classic.

It’s interesting to see that the UFC has moved away from its usual matchmaking style to put this together, too; usually they tend to match winners of previous fights against fellow winners and losers against losers, but in this case, Gaethje is coming off a crushing win over Edson Barboza while Cerrone was last seen in a tough loss to Tony Ferguson. Does any of that matter come Saturday? In all honesty, not really.

So how do these two match up? Well, as a Cerrone fan I hate to admit it, but I don’t think this is a good match for ‘Cowboy’ at all. Cerrone is one of the most experienced men on the UFC roster right now with an insane 32 bouts to his name, and while he’s had more success than failure – he’s got the most wins in UFC history with 23 and the most finishes too with 16 – his ridiculous schedule means that he’s taken a lot of wear and tear over the years.

Cerrone’s game is still pretty excellent from a technical and offensive standpoint; his leg kicks are still vicious, he still times that switch knee strike perfectly, he can still crack in terms of his boxing, he knows how to use his length and he remains one of the most venomous grapplers in the Lightweight division. He’s also had a pretty strong 2019, all things said.

He began the year with an impressive domination of prospect Alexander Hernandez, and then outstruck the always tough Al Iaquinta for a decision victory in May. June saw him lose to Ferguson, but he started surprisingly well in that fight considering his reputation for a slow opening round and took the fight to ‘El Cucuy’, only being stopped when his eye swelled shut between the second and third rounds.

The problem here however is that stylistically, Gaethje is just a bad match for him. Traditionally, the fighters to have given Cerrone the most problems in the UFC were the ones who were capable of corralling ‘Cowboy’, backing him up and forcing him to eat heavy leather before he’s able to fire back with anything of his own.

It was this issue that led directly to his losses to Darren Till, Jorge Masvidal and Rafael Dos Anjos, and Robbie Lawler nearly put him away by rushing him in the first round of their fight, too.

The Ferguson and Iaquinta fights showed that Cerrone is still tough, but against a puncher like Gaethje – who has perhaps the heaviest hands in the division? I worry for him. Basically, nobody in at 155lbs can go power-for-power with ‘The Highlight’. We saw that when he violently turned the lights out on Barboza and James Vick with one-punch knockouts.

But Gaethje isn’t a one-dimensional power puncher. He’s also a surprisingly varied striker who loves to throw leg kicks and is quite happy to dig punches into the body of his opponent, too – another traditional weak point for ‘Cowboy’. And while he’s also been in a pretty crazy amount of brawls across his career – many of them in the UFC – I’d argue that he can weather punishment better than Cerrone at this point in their careers.

For me the Barboza fight should be a template for Gaethje here – if he can walk Cerrone down in a similar fashion, backing him into the fence with shots to the body and head, then I think he can set up a knockout similar to the one that Darren Till was able to unleash on ‘Cowboy’ back in 2017. I’d love to see Cowboy pull this one off but for me this is Gaethje’s fight to lose.

The Pick: Gaethje via first round KO

#2 Glover Teixeira vs. Nikita Krylov

Can Nikita Krylov overcome veteran Glover Teixeira?

Both of these Light-Heavyweights are coming off pretty excellent wins – Glover Teixeira over Ion Cutelaba, Nikita Krylov over Ovince St. Preux – and while it’s doubtful that a title shot is in the near future for either man, a win here would go far in securing their spot near the top of the division. For Teixeira, it’s about proving that he’s still relevant, and for Krylov – who’s still young at 27 – it’s about proving that he can make it to the elite level in the UFC.

Krylov is a fascinating case, really. Initially signed by the UFC in 2013 as a sloppy Heavyweight brawler, a move to 205lbs in 2014 saw him get into much better shape and really improve his skills to the point where he became one of the most dangerous men in the Light-Heavyweight division.

He reeled off 5 straight wins before being submitted by fellow up-and-comer Misha Cirkunov, and from there surprisingly departed the UFC for the Russian regional scene.

The move was a shock considering his rising profile, but the word was that Krylov had requested the break from the UFC to gain some more experience without travelling too much, and sure enough he won 4 in a row before returning to the Octagon last year. The return didn’t go so well, unfortunately, as he was submitted by Jan Blachowicz in a bit of a surprise.

‘The Miner’ has since bounced back with a tapout of ‘OSP’, avenging an earlier loss, but while the win was impressive, it came largely from St. Preux running out of steam after the first round. Teixeira should be another beast entirely in terms of opposition and if Krylov can get past him, it’d put him firmly into title contention.

I’ve stated that Teixeira has been on the way down for a while now, but I’m not sure that’s correct at this point. Sure, he was badly beaten by Corey Anderson, who used the threat of his wrestling to tag Glover over and over with punches, and he was also hurt by Karl Roberson before taking him out. But neither man knocked him out – nor did Cutelaba, who hit him with some ridiculously heavy shots before running out of steam in their April fight.

So essentially, Teixeira is still the same fighter he always was – he’s got extremely heavy hands, a solid wrestling game with serviceable takedowns, and a phenomenal top game with dangerous strikes and submission skills. He’s just a lot slower, a lot more plodding than he was in his prime a handful of years ago.

That’s where Krylov could perhaps have some success here; if he can catch Teixeira with something heavy due to the speed advantage he’s likely to have, then he can win. But the issue is that Glover simply isn’t as chinny as people – including myself – have made him out to be. Cutelaba hits scarily hard, even for 205lbs, and he caught Glover cleanly more than once and couldn’t put him away.

More to the point, Krylov isn’t exactly a defensively sound fighter himself. He’s been tagged by strikes in a lot of his fights, and in fact it was a stiff jab from Cirkunov in their fight that dropped him and set up the Canadian’s submission. Add in the fact that while he’s an offensively excellent grappler, he’s not the best on defense, and I’d worry for his chances here.

To see Father Time catch up with Teixeira and allow Krylov to take him out in a rush wouldn’t be a major shocker, but I can’t see it myself. I think Glover will catch him with some big strikes early on which should set up a submission from top position.

The Pick: Teixeira via first round submission

#3 Todd Duffee vs. Jeff Hughes

After four years on the shelf, the explosive Todd Duffee is back in action

It’s hard to believe it, but it’s now well over four years since we last saw Todd Duffee in the Octagon. Before he was booked on this show a lot of fans – myself included – were happy to include him on a list of the biggest “what if’s” in UFC history. When he burst onto the scene with a UFC-record breaking 7 second knockout of Tim Hague it seemed like only a matter of time before he ended up in title contention, but well, stuff happens.

Duffee was shockingly knocked out by Mike Russow in the third round of his next fight after dominating for the first two rounds, and then butted heads with Dana White, leading to his release. He then moved to DREAM, facing Alistair Overeem in what looked more like a WWE match due to the freakish physiques involved, and found himself knocked out again.

That was 2010 and it would be 2012 before Duffee would fight again, picking up a KO in India’s Super Fight League before returning to the UFC with a knockout of Phil De Fries. It seemed like his career was back on track, only for a nerve issue known as Parsonage-Turner Syndrome to raise its head. Duffee fought that off and returned in 2014 with another KO, but then fought in a criminally sloppy way against Frank Mir and ate the third KO loss of his career.

Since then? Injuries, basically, one after another, to the point where it looked like he’d probably never fight again and fade into the same area that David Terrell (another highly touted but injury-prone fighter) did a decade or so ago. But he’s back now, and judging by his Instagram photos, he looks to be in phenomenal shape.

It’s hardly a surprise; ignoring his injury history Duffee is a phenomenal athlete, particularly for a Heavyweight, and that’s why I’m picking him to win this fight pretty comfortably. Sure, he can be extremely sloppy with his striking – witness that diabolical Mir fight that saw him completely over-reach with a hook, allowing Mir to knock him out – and his chin isn’t the greatest, but his speed and explosiveness allow him to do things that regular Heavyweights simply can’t do.

Hughes on the other hand is about as regular as a Heavyweight that you’ll find. He’s a big dude and he appears to hit pretty hard, but he’s also not in great shape, is probably more sloppy than Duffee’s ever been, and in his UFC debut, a dull outing against TUF veteran Maurice Greene, he showed nothing to suggest that he’s got the ability to break into the elite level in the UFC. Put it this way, I’m surprised the UFC haven’t matched him with Greg Hardy yet.

Sure, Heavyweight is very unpredictable and due to the power that all of the big men pack, it’s easy to see a scenario where Duffee walks into a big shot from Hughes and gets knocked out.

But the speed difference should prove to be the big advantage for Duffee and I think he’ll beat Hughes to the punch, and as everyone should already know, Duffee hits like a truck. Hopefully he’ll stick around this time, too – at 33 he’s still relatively young for a Heavyweight.

The Pick: Duffee via first round KO

#4 Uriah Hall vs. Antonio Carlos Junior

Uriah Hall hasn't lived up to his potential, but he's still very dangerous

This Middleweight fight is interesting to me because both men have all the natural skills and talent needed to make it to the top at 185lbs, but have both seemed to hit walls preventing them from getting there. For Hall, the issues were always believed to have been with his mentality, but in reality I don’t think that’s true – nobody with a poor mentality would survive in the UFC for as long as he’s done.

The reality is likely that Hall is simply inconsistent, and has never quite mastered the all-round skills to match his natural physical abilities. He’s 35 now and isn’t likely to change or develop any further, so realistically he’s a very dangerous striker with explosive power, but who also has an unfortunate habit of being lulled into a slow pace, and whose chin has also been cracked at this point.

Thankfully for ‘Prime Time’, his opponent on Saturday, Carlos Junior – AKA ‘Shoeface’ – isn’t a great striker by any means. He hits with power but technically he’s not great, tending to wing big shots from the outside more than anything else. But on the ground is where he excels – he’s a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with the skills to submit basically anyone in the division.

But Carlos Junior’s big weakness is that he might well be in the wrong division. Once a Heavyweight, the Brazilian is simply huge for 185lbs, clearly looking for a big physical advantage over his opponents – something he didn’t have at 205lbs where he was overpowered by Patrick Cummins in 2014.

But the problem with that is that he runs out of gas worryingly quickly – likely a consequence of such a huge weight cut. That wasn’t a problem for him when he was on a five-fight winning streak, as he was faced largely with opponents who he matched stylistically well with. But his losses to Dan Kelly and Ian Heinisch both stemmed from him running out of steam, and he had similar issues against Marvin Vettori too in a fight that saw him take a close decision.

Basically this fight should come down to whether ‘Shoeface’ can get Hall to the ground, and early on in the fight for good measure. If he can then this is a winnable fight; Hall isn’t a wizard from his back and although he’s athletically gifted, he’s dealing with another level of grappler when it comes to Carlos Junior.

If the Brazilian can’t get the fight down, though, then he’s probably in trouble. Hall is chinny these days and can be lulled into a slow pace, but he still hits – and kicks – extremely hard, and he’s a far more nuanced striker than Carlos Junior. Based on the fact that the Brazilian’s takedowns aren’t the best in the division, if Hall can defend a couple of early ones, ‘Shoeface’ may become tired and then become a sitting duck.

This could honestly go either way but I’m thinking Hall stops some early takedowns, gets Carlos Junior tired and then picks him off for a decision win.

The Pick: Hall via unanimous decision

#5 Misha Cirkunov vs. Jimmy Crute

The powerful Misha Cirkunov will provide youngster Jimmy Crute with a tough test

A couple of years ago, I’d have ranked Latvian-Canadian fighter Misha Cirkunov as perhaps the best prospect in the world at 205lbs. A massively muscled Light-Heavyweight, Cirkunov tore through his early competition in the UFC with a strong mix of powerful striking and tight ground work. Sure, he wasn’t the most flowing striker, preferring to throw stiff punches with a lot of power, but that didn’t give him any trouble against the likes of Ion Cutelaba, Nikita Krylov and Alex Nicholson.

Then he walked into a short punch from Volkan Oezdemir and was knocked out cold, and in his rebound match with Glover Teixeira he just didn’t look right at all, succumbing to the strong ground game of the Brazilian and losing a first-round TKO.

Cirkunov bounced back last year by impressively submitting Patrick Cummins, but in his last fight he was stopped by the explosive Johnny Walker in violent fashion.

I wouldn’t go as far as calling Cirkunov a bust just yet – he’s still got a lot of talent and if his striking game improves a bit in terms of his defensive skills and his ability to string together more combinations, he could definitely rise back up the rankings – but his chin and overall toughness are a definite worry going forward.

His opponent Crute is a tricky fighter to get a handle on. The young Australian came into the UFC off the back of an impressive KO on Dana White’s Contender Series and then won an exciting – if sloppy – grappling match with Paul Craig before knocking out Sam Alvey in February. Crute’s clearly an athletically talented fighter but he’s still very raw – meaning he could well have bitten off more than he can chew in this fight.

Basically if this fight were coming a couple of years down the line I’d give Crute a huge chance of winning – and in fact, he might well win anyway by catching the slightly slower Cirkunov with a big punch early on – but for me this is just a step too far for him at this stage in his career. Cirkunov is more experienced, more polished and although he’s coming off a loss, he’s beaten guys like Crute before.

Given Crute got into issues on the ground against Craig – who isn’t as good a grappler as Cirkunov – I think this one should be Misha’s if he can get the Aussie to the ground. Given Crute was more than willing to duel on the mat with Craig I don’t think he’ll have issues attempting to do the same with Cirkunov – until he’s tapping, that is.

The Pick: Cirkunov via second-round submission

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Dangerous Heavyweight Marcin Tybura headlines this weekend's prelim card

Not content with filling the main card – aside from the main event – with fights in the heavier weight classes, the big men are also headlining the prelims. Marcin Tybura faces off with Augusto Sakai in a fight that could be pretty good – or it could easily turn into a slopfest. I like Tybura here; he’s the smaller man but I think he’s got a big advantage if he can get Sakai to the ground and he’s also not a bad striker by any means. Tybura by decision is the pick.

At Bantamweight, Cole Smith makes his second UFC appearance, taking on newcomer and fellow unbeaten fighter Miles Johns. This is a tricky fight to pick; both men have similar levels of experience and all-round skills, but I’m tossing a coin and saying that Smith will make the most of his home country advantage to edge a tight decision.

Andrew Sanchez returns at Middleweight to face Marvin Vettori, the steadily-improving Italian who recently took a solid win over Cezar Ferreira. Sanchez is on a two-fight winning streak but he’s just not that well-rounded in my opinion, and I think Vettori is a good enough grappler to fend off his wrestling and take a decision.

At Bantamweight, former TUF winner Brad Katona faces unbeaten newcomer Hunter Azure. Katona disappointed massively in his previous fight against Merab Dvalishvili, but to be fair the Georgian’s wrestling game was always going to be tricky for him to handle, whereas Azure is less experienced and will have ‘Octagon shock’ to deal with. Katona by decision is my pick.

In a Featherweight match, hard-nosed wrestler Chas Skelly faces Jordan Griffin. Griffin didn’t look too great in his UFC debut against Dan Ige, and while Skelly has shown issues defensively in the past, his wrestling and grappling make him a tricky out for anyone in this division. I like Skelly via submission here.

Former Flyweight Louis Smolka returns at Bantamweight to take on Ryan MacDonald. Smolka has a decent game in all areas, but he’s also a bit of a glass cannon as he tends to give up position on the ground relatively easily, which is the cause of the majority of his losses. MacDonald, on the other hand, is a volume striker with little power, which doesn’t make him sound like the guys who’ve tended to beat Smolka. I’ll take Smolka via decision here after outworking MacDonald on the ground.

Finally, at Welterweight, Kyle Prepolec faces off with Austin Hubbard. Hubbard didn’t look great in his UFC debut, a loss to Davi Ramos, but then Prepolec hardly looked like a world-beater against Nordine Taleb in his own UFC debut either. I like Hubbard here – his jack-of-all-trades style will always find him in trouble against specialists like Ramos, but I think he’s slightly better than Prepolec in all areas and I’ll take him by decision.