UFC Fight Night 158: Cowboy vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

#2 Glover Teixeira vs. Nikita Krylov

Can Nikita Krylov overcome veteran Glover Teixeira?

Both of these Light-Heavyweights are coming off pretty excellent wins – Glover Teixeira over Ion Cutelaba, Nikita Krylov over Ovince St. Preux – and while it’s doubtful that a title shot is in the near future for either man, a win here would go far in securing their spot near the top of the division. For Teixeira, it’s about proving that he’s still relevant, and for Krylov – who’s still young at 27 – it’s about proving that he can make it to the elite level in the UFC.

Krylov is a fascinating case, really. Initially signed by the UFC in 2013 as a sloppy Heavyweight brawler, a move to 205lbs in 2014 saw him get into much better shape and really improve his skills to the point where he became one of the most dangerous men in the Light-Heavyweight division.

He reeled off 5 straight wins before being submitted by fellow up-and-comer Misha Cirkunov, and from there surprisingly departed the UFC for the Russian regional scene.

The move was a shock considering his rising profile, but the word was that Krylov had requested the break from the UFC to gain some more experience without travelling too much, and sure enough he won 4 in a row before returning to the Octagon last year. The return didn’t go so well, unfortunately, as he was submitted by Jan Blachowicz in a bit of a surprise.

‘The Miner’ has since bounced back with a tapout of ‘OSP’, avenging an earlier loss, but while the win was impressive, it came largely from St. Preux running out of steam after the first round. Teixeira should be another beast entirely in terms of opposition and if Krylov can get past him, it’d put him firmly into title contention.

I’ve stated that Teixeira has been on the way down for a while now, but I’m not sure that’s correct at this point. Sure, he was badly beaten by Corey Anderson, who used the threat of his wrestling to tag Glover over and over with punches, and he was also hurt by Karl Roberson before taking him out. But neither man knocked him out – nor did Cutelaba, who hit him with some ridiculously heavy shots before running out of steam in their April fight.

So essentially, Teixeira is still the same fighter he always was – he’s got extremely heavy hands, a solid wrestling game with serviceable takedowns, and a phenomenal top game with dangerous strikes and submission skills. He’s just a lot slower, a lot more plodding than he was in his prime a handful of years ago.

That’s where Krylov could perhaps have some success here; if he can catch Teixeira with something heavy due to the speed advantage he’s likely to have, then he can win. But the issue is that Glover simply isn’t as chinny as people – including myself – have made him out to be. Cutelaba hits scarily hard, even for 205lbs, and he caught Glover cleanly more than once and couldn’t put him away.

More to the point, Krylov isn’t exactly a defensively sound fighter himself. He’s been tagged by strikes in a lot of his fights, and in fact it was a stiff jab from Cirkunov in their fight that dropped him and set up the Canadian’s submission. Add in the fact that while he’s an offensively excellent grappler, he’s not the best on defense, and I’d worry for his chances here.

To see Father Time catch up with Teixeira and allow Krylov to take him out in a rush wouldn’t be a major shocker, but I can’t see it myself. I think Glover will catch him with some big strikes early on which should set up a submission from top position.

The Pick: Teixeira via first round submission