UFC Fight Night 158: Cowboy vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

#3 Todd Duffee vs. Jeff Hughes

After four years on the shelf, the explosive Todd Duffee is back in action

It’s hard to believe it, but it’s now well over four years since we last saw Todd Duffee in the Octagon. Before he was booked on this show a lot of fans – myself included – were happy to include him on a list of the biggest “what if’s” in UFC history. When he burst onto the scene with a UFC-record breaking 7 second knockout of Tim Hague it seemed like only a matter of time before he ended up in title contention, but well, stuff happens.

Duffee was shockingly knocked out by Mike Russow in the third round of his next fight after dominating for the first two rounds, and then butted heads with Dana White, leading to his release. He then moved to DREAM, facing Alistair Overeem in what looked more like a WWE match due to the freakish physiques involved, and found himself knocked out again.

That was 2010 and it would be 2012 before Duffee would fight again, picking up a KO in India’s Super Fight League before returning to the UFC with a knockout of Phil De Fries. It seemed like his career was back on track, only for a nerve issue known as Parsonage-Turner Syndrome to raise its head. Duffee fought that off and returned in 2014 with another KO, but then fought in a criminally sloppy way against Frank Mir and ate the third KO loss of his career.

Since then? Injuries, basically, one after another, to the point where it looked like he’d probably never fight again and fade into the same area that David Terrell (another highly touted but injury-prone fighter) did a decade or so ago. But he’s back now, and judging by his Instagram photos, he looks to be in phenomenal shape.

It’s hardly a surprise; ignoring his injury history Duffee is a phenomenal athlete, particularly for a Heavyweight, and that’s why I’m picking him to win this fight pretty comfortably. Sure, he can be extremely sloppy with his striking – witness that diabolical Mir fight that saw him completely over-reach with a hook, allowing Mir to knock him out – and his chin isn’t the greatest, but his speed and explosiveness allow him to do things that regular Heavyweights simply can’t do.

Hughes on the other hand is about as regular as a Heavyweight that you’ll find. He’s a big dude and he appears to hit pretty hard, but he’s also not in great shape, is probably more sloppy than Duffee’s ever been, and in his UFC debut, a dull outing against TUF veteran Maurice Greene, he showed nothing to suggest that he’s got the ability to break into the elite level in the UFC. Put it this way, I’m surprised the UFC haven’t matched him with Greg Hardy yet.

Sure, Heavyweight is very unpredictable and due to the power that all of the big men pack, it’s easy to see a scenario where Duffee walks into a big shot from Hughes and gets knocked out.

But the speed difference should prove to be the big advantage for Duffee and I think he’ll beat Hughes to the punch, and as everyone should already know, Duffee hits like a truck. Hopefully he’ll stick around this time, too – at 33 he’s still relatively young for a Heavyweight.

The Pick: Duffee via first round KO