UFC Fight Night 158: Cowboy vs. Gaethje - Predictions and Picks

#4 Uriah Hall vs. Antonio Carlos Junior

Uriah Hall hasn't lived up to his potential, but he's still very dangerous

This Middleweight fight is interesting to me because both men have all the natural skills and talent needed to make it to the top at 185lbs, but have both seemed to hit walls preventing them from getting there. For Hall, the issues were always believed to have been with his mentality, but in reality I don’t think that’s true – nobody with a poor mentality would survive in the UFC for as long as he’s done.

The reality is likely that Hall is simply inconsistent, and has never quite mastered the all-round skills to match his natural physical abilities. He’s 35 now and isn’t likely to change or develop any further, so realistically he’s a very dangerous striker with explosive power, but who also has an unfortunate habit of being lulled into a slow pace, and whose chin has also been cracked at this point.

Thankfully for ‘Prime Time’, his opponent on Saturday, Carlos Junior – AKA ‘Shoeface’ – isn’t a great striker by any means. He hits with power but technically he’s not great, tending to wing big shots from the outside more than anything else. But on the ground is where he excels – he’s a high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt with the skills to submit basically anyone in the division.

But Carlos Junior’s big weakness is that he might well be in the wrong division. Once a Heavyweight, the Brazilian is simply huge for 185lbs, clearly looking for a big physical advantage over his opponents – something he didn’t have at 205lbs where he was overpowered by Patrick Cummins in 2014.

But the problem with that is that he runs out of gas worryingly quickly – likely a consequence of such a huge weight cut. That wasn’t a problem for him when he was on a five-fight winning streak, as he was faced largely with opponents who he matched stylistically well with. But his losses to Dan Kelly and Ian Heinisch both stemmed from him running out of steam, and he had similar issues against Marvin Vettori too in a fight that saw him take a close decision.

Basically this fight should come down to whether ‘Shoeface’ can get Hall to the ground, and early on in the fight for good measure. If he can then this is a winnable fight; Hall isn’t a wizard from his back and although he’s athletically gifted, he’s dealing with another level of grappler when it comes to Carlos Junior.

If the Brazilian can’t get the fight down, though, then he’s probably in trouble. Hall is chinny these days and can be lulled into a slow pace, but he still hits – and kicks – extremely hard, and he’s a far more nuanced striker than Carlos Junior. Based on the fact that the Brazilian’s takedowns aren’t the best in the division, if Hall can defend a couple of early ones, ‘Shoeface’ may become tired and then become a sitting duck.

This could honestly go either way but I’m thinking Hall stops some early takedowns, gets Carlos Junior tired and then picks him off for a decision win.

The Pick: Hall via unanimous decision