UFC Fight Night 159: Rodriguez vs Stephens - Predictions and Picks

#3 Brandon Moreno vs Askar Askarov

Brandon Moreno is back in the UFC - but he has a tough fight on his hands

The UFC career of Brandon Moreno is fascinating purely because of the way he’s been treated; ‘The Assassin Baby’ surprised everyone by going on a 3-fight win streak following his appearance on TUF 24, but then ran into a wall when he lost to Sergio Pettis and Alexandre Pantoja, both high-level contenders at Flyweight.

Usually, that wouldn’t matter, but this was the UFC’s Flyweight division in 2018, and so following the two losses, Moreno was released from his contract. Given he was ranked in the top ten at the time, the release added more fuel to the idea that the UFC were preparing to cut the men’s 125lbs division altogether – but of course, since then Henry Cejudo has captured the UFC title and has proven a champion worthy of pushing.

So Moreno was thus re-signed to the UFC earlier in the year, and makes his return here – in his home country – to face debutant Askarov. The fact that the UFC are actually signing debutants at 125lbs rather than cutting fighters shows that a renewed effort to make the division work might be underway, so can Moreno become one of the more recognizable names on offer?

Well, he might be able to, but I don’t think it’ll be from this fight. It’s always a risk picking a UFC debutant against a fighter who’s had a lot of experience in the Octagon, but in this case, I’m willing to do so. From the footage I’ve seen of him, Askarov is an absolute monster.

Yet another fighter coming out of Dagestan, ‘Bullet’ is 10-0 and has never gone the distance. He hasn’t been fighting tomato cans, either – the majority of his victims have been fellow Russian prospects. Judging by what I’ve seen, his game is simple, but devastatingly effective; he walks his opponents down with powerful pressure-striking, gets them to the ground and then dominates them with a venomous submission game. This is a fighter who’s tapped opponents with anaconda chokes and even the ultra-rare twister.

Moreno is a very good fighter; his striking is solid enough and he’s dangerous on the ground, but I can’t help but think he’s overmatched here given Askarov’s all-round skills. Assuming Askarov doesn’t suffer from the dreaded ‘Octagon Shock’ I think he’ll run Moreno over in frightening fashion – marking himself out as a fighter to watch going forward at 125lbs.

The Pick: Askarov via first-round submission