UFC Fight Night 159: Rodriguez vs Stephens - Predictions and Picks

#5 Irene Aldana vs Vanessa Melo

Irene Aldana is one of the UFC's most exciting Bantamweights

Initially, this one would’ve seen Mexico’s Aldana facing off with veteran Marion Reneau, but with Reneau out for undisclosed reasons, Brazil’s Melo has been brought in on around two weeks’ notice to make her UFC debut. And for me, that makes the fight a little easier to pick. Reneau might be over 40 years old now but she’s still an excellent athlete and would’ve provided a stern test for Aldana.

Melo on the other hand, from the footage I’ve seen on her, is largely unremarkable in all areas. She appears to be a decent striker and a relatively solid grappler, but just doesn’t seem to be a stand-out in any single department. The fact that she’s gone the distance in her last 6 fights – going to split decision in 3 of them – says a lot. She does have a victory over UFC fighter Molly McCann, but that was back in 2015 and McCann is a natural Flyweight.

Aldana, on the other hand, is one of the more exciting fighters in the Bantamweight division. An ultra-aggressive striker, ‘Robles’ loves to push the pace and wing quick, heavy combinations at her opponents. Naturally, that style has worked well for her thus far in her UFC tenure; she’s won the Fight of the Night award twice, and is clearly the kind of fighter that the promotion’s brass would like to push.

Weaknesses? Aldana’s ground game is clearly lacking in comparison to her striking. It’s not that she’s bad on the ground per say – she appeared to have improved massively in terms of her submission attacks in her most recent fights, as she tapped Bethe Correia with an armbar and didn’t look lost on the ground against Raquel Pennington, but her takedown defense still isn’t the strongest.

However, I don’t expect that to be an issue in this fight. From what I’ve seen she should enjoy quite a speed and power advantage over Melo, and assuming the Brazilian doesn’t spam takedowns from the word go, I think Aldana can hurt her on the feet before she really moves out of first gear. Whether she can get a finish is another story but I think this fight should be hers comfortably.

The Pick: Aldana via unanimous decision