UFC Fight Night 160: Hermansson vs. Cannonier - Predictions and Picks

#3 Gunnar Nelson vs. Gilbert Burns

Gunnar Nelson is faced with a tricky opponent this weekend in Gilbert Burns

Okay, now this fight is hugely intriguing. Initially, Gunnar Nelson was set to face Thiago Alves here in what sounded like a set-up fight for him given Alves’s deterioration over the past couple of years, but with ‘Pitbull’ out with an injury, things might’ve gotten a lot tougher for him.

Burns hasn’t quite lived up to his early hype, but he’s on a 3-fight win streak and he’s also one of the few fighters in the 170lbs division who can match – and even better – Nelson’s accomplishments in the grappling world.

‘Durinho’ is a fireplug at 5’10”, and given he fought at 155lbs for the early part of his UFC career, it’s safe to say he isn’t the biggest Welterweight on the roster. But he’s thickly muscled, strong as an ox and packs a lot of power into everything he does. Does that make this an unwinnable fight for Nelson? Well, not exactly.

Firstly, while ‘Gunni’ has been knocked out and hurt by strikes before, he’s almost certainly the more polished fighter on the feet here. Burns has steadily improved his striking from his early days, but we’re only a year or so removed from seeing Dan Hooker knock him out with some cleaner counter-striking when he got too wild, and only a month ago he had a lot of issues with the striking of Alexey Kunchenko, although his grappling pulled him through in that fight.

Secondly, given the relatively late notice for Burns (about two weeks), it seems like a safe bet that Nelson will probably have an advantage in conditioning – and ‘Durinho’ has gassed out in the past, particularly when he’s forced into protracted striking exchanges.

The problem for Nelson is that for all his grappling skills, it’s been shown in the past that he’s really not that dangerous when he’s planted on his back. Demian Maia proved that and while Maia is arguably the best pure grappler in UFC history, the likes of Leon Edwards, Rick Story and Alex Oliveira have all had success when they’ve been able to take Nelson down.

Does Burns have a wrestling advantage over the Icelandic fighter? Quite possibly, which means that this issue might raise its head again here.

With that said, who knows how Burns will deal with things if Nelson manages to take him down? After all, these are two incredibly high-level grapplers we’re discussing, but Nelson’s top game is incredibly dangerous; he’s got a rock-solid mount and heavy strikes from that position and he’s a vicious finisher with chokes from all types of angles.

For me this is the hardest fight on the card to pick; in my mind either Burns will get Nelson to the ground and basically outwrestle him for a decision or late TKO, or Nelson will be able to pick Burns apart from range and perhaps put him on his back to give him problems.

In the end I’m leaning towards Nelson here purely because we’ve seen Burns hurt by counters on the feet before and ‘Gunni’ is capable of doing that, particularly as his cardio should be superior.

The Pick: Nelson via unanimous decision