UFC Fight Night 160: Hermansson vs. Cannonier - Predictions and Picks

#6 Nicolas Dalby vs. Alex Oliveira

Nicolas Dalby gets to return to the UFC in his home country this weekend

The UFC’s first Danish fighter, Nicolas Dalby has been on the outside looking in for the last few years; ‘Sharpshooter’ debuted in the Octagon back in 2015 and handed Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos a rare defeat, albeit in a tight fight via split decision.

He then took a more raw version of Darren Till to a draw – although he was losing handily until Till dislocated his shoulder – before dropping decisions to Zak Cummings and Peter Sobotta to put an end to his tenure in the promotion.

Since then Dalby has gone 3-1 with one No Contest, with his only loss coming to current UFC fighter Carlo Pedersoli Junior. That fact doesn’t bode well for him here if you go by MMA Math – Pedersoli was violently knocked out by Oliveira last year – but as we all know, it’s not smart to rely on that to pick fights.

At his best, Dalby lives up to his ‘Sharpshooter’ nickname with some dangerous and technical kickboxing. He’s comfortable from close range and also at distance, and with 6 KOs or TKOs to his name he hits relatively hard too. The problem for him is that while technique and decent power are great at the regional level, he’s just not the best athlete. A relatively small 170lber, he’s always likely to have trouble with explosive opponents.

Oliveira is very much that type of opponent. An A+ athlete, he hits incredibly hard and makes good use of his long, rangy frame. He’s also a pretty tremendous grappler, capable of catching opponents in quick and skilful submissions. Judging by his previous fights, he’s also got a rock-solid chin and he’s extremely tricky to knock out.

Weaknesses? Inconsistency would be his main one. Against Pedersoli, Ryan LaFlare and Carlos Condit he looked like a world-beater, but he just wasn’t the same fighter against Mike Perry or Tim Means, in their first fight at least. Better grapplers have also capitalised on the holes in his game, but Dalby isn’t likely to join their ranks.

Basically then, to win this fight Dalby has to be technically perfect for three rounds – I don’t think he can knock out Oliveira, but he can probably out-technique him, assuming he doesn’t take a big shot or find himself on his back with ‘Cowboy’ on top.

Do I trust him to do that? I’m not sure that I do, but given the fight is in his home country and considering Oliveira’s inconsistent style, I’m going to risk picking him anyway.

The Pick: Dalby via split decision