UFC Fight Night 161: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson - Predictions and Picks

After a low-key pay-per-view – on paper, at least – last weekend, the UFC’s Fight Night series returns this week with a pretty loaded card in my opinion. UFC Fight Night 161 goes down from Tampa, Florida, and in the main event we’ve got a major Strawweight clash between former champion Joanna Jedrzejczyk and title hopeful Michelle Waterson.

Elsewhere on the card, fights like Cub Swanson vs. Kron Gracie, Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas and Niko Price vs. James Vick seem to guarantee action, even if the show isn’t the heaviest in terms of name value.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 161: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson.

#1 Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs. Michelle Waterson

Could Joanna Jedrzejczyk win back the Strawweight title?

After losing three of her last four fights – all three losses coming in title bouts – former Strawweight queen Joanna Jedrzejczyk’s next fight was always going to be a major one for her, but the current state of the title picture at 115lbs has made it a whole lot more interesting. After losing twice to Rose Namajunas, it seemed difficult to imagine Joanna in another Strawweight title match any time soon, but of course, not only has Namajunas since been dethroned, but the woman who beat her – Jessica Andrade – has since lost the title to Weili Zhang.

Essentially, the only dominant champion the division has ever had is Jedrzejczyk. And that means that if she beats Michelle Waterson this weekend, it’ll be pretty hard to deny her another crack at the gold – even if that’s at the expense of current top contender Tatiana Suarez.

It’d be a little harder to give Waterson a shot off the back of a win here I think as Suarez has been so dominant, but a win over Jedrzejczyk would easily be the biggest in the career of ‘The Karate Hottie’, and would at least put her in line for a No.1 contender’s match. So there are big stakes on the line in Tampa this weekend.

So how do these two match up? It’s quite interesting because gut feeling tells me this will largely be a striker vs. grappler fight in terms of where each woman wants to take the fight. We all know that Jedrzejczyk is one of the deadliest strikers, pound-for-pound, in the UFC right now, but I’d argue that Waterson’s ‘Karate Hottie’ nickname is a bit of a smokescreen. Is she hot? Sure, but the ‘Karate’ tag is a little false as I’d actually say she’s a better grappler than a striker.

It’s not that Waterson can’t stand and strike with her opponents; she’s very good from a technical standpoint and is able to cut angles and use her kicks and long punches to catch her opponents from range, something that’s quite surprising given she’s not that tall (5’3”) and doesn’t really have a long reach (62” to Joanna’s 65.5” in this fight). On the flip side however, she’s not unusually quick for a Strawweight, and she doesn’t carry that much power in her strikes. In fact, I can’t remember her scoring a knockdown in the UFC off the top of my head.

On the ground, though? Waterson is fantastic. Her takedowns aren’t the strongest – she prefers a lateral drop or a headlock throw from the clinch, both risky moves – but from the top she’s an excellent fighter, able to control opponents and keep them grounded while also threatening with submissions. In fact, of her five UFC victories, four of them came largely from her grappling, while her two losses saw her struggle with the striking of both Namajunas and Tecia Torres.

What makes this fight fascinating is that judging by her last fight – a loss at Flyweight to Valentina Shevchenko – as a lot of people suspected even when she looked unstoppable, Joanna’s major weakness seems to be her ground game. Shevchenko was able to take her down on numerous occasions, and once she had her there the Polish fighter didn’t appear to be too tricky to control nor did she offer a lot from her back.

On the other hand obviously, Joanna’s striking is almost unparalleled in the division. Sure, Namajunas knocked her out in their first fight, but while she was able to outpoint her the second time around, it was a very close fight to score, and outside of that, nobody’s really come close to outstriking her. She can be hit – we saw both Claudia Gadelha and Karolina Kowalkiewicz knock her down – but outside of that? Her jab is razor-sharp, she throws insanely fast combinations and she attacks her opponents by cutting off the cage with excellent footwork and angles.

Waterson shouldn’t be as outgunned on her feet as say, Carla Esparza or Valerie Letourneau were, but can she survive with Joanna for five rounds? Even if she does, I don’t see her having too much success. Jedrzejczyk is probably faster, definitely hits harder, and can take a punch extremely well. Waterson is tough but Torres had her in trouble at points with her combinations, and Jedrzejczyk is on another level.

That means ‘The Karate Hottie’ should look to grapple – but unfortunately for her, I’m not sure she can pull off that game, either. The problem for her is that Jedrzejczyk’s takedown defense is tremendous – at Strawweight, only Gadelha really got her down and even then, she bounced right back up. Sure, Shevchenko outwrestled her easily, but then ‘Bullet’ is also far larger having fought most of her career at 135lbs.

Add in the fact that Waterson prefers takedowns from the clinch – an area in which Joanna excels in terms of her striking, with violent, slashing elbows and knees – and the likelihood of her securing enough takedowns to win this fight just doesn’t seem all that high to me.

Can Jedrzejczyk finish Waterson? If she can then I think the title shot could be in the bag, but given that she hasn’t actually taken someone out since the overmatched Jessica Penne back in 2015, I’m going to say she won’t. If she doesn’t come away with her hand raised, though, I’d be very surprised.

The Pick: Jedrzejczyk via unanimous decision

#2 Cub Swanson vs. Kron Gracie

Kron Gracie takes a big step up this weekend against Cub Swanson

The UFC clearly aren’t messing around when it comes to booking Kron Gracie. The latest member of MMA’s First Family to debut in the UFC, Kron’s first effort was far superior to the ones put forward by the likes of Rolles and Roger, but there’s still a world of difference between fighting the inconsistent – if talented – Alex Caceres and then stepping in with a veteran like Cub Swanson after just five professional fights.

Of course, that’s underselling ‘Ice Cream Kron’ a bit; like the rest of his family, he’s a massively accomplished grappler, being a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under his legendary father, Rickson Gracie. And he’s not just any black belt, either – Kron won the prestigious ADCC tournament in 2013, and has wins over some of the best grapplers on the planet, from Gary Tonon to Otavio Souza.

As the old adage goes, though, in MMA things are a bit different; punch a black belt in the face and he becomes a brown belt, and so on. That wasn’t an issue against Caceres, but despite the talents of ‘Bruce Leeroy’, Swanson is on another level. One of the best strikers in the 145lbs division at his best, Swanson chains combinations together at a ridiculous rate and throws strikes from unusual angles, something that has allowed him to defeat accomplished strikers like Jeremy Stephens and Dustin Poirier.

With that said, though, it’s not like Kron is a painfully stiff striker as some of his relatives have appeared to be when they’ve fought in the UFC. Kron’s boxing looks pretty sharp; he’s got a solid jab and while he’s not going to be mistaken for a professional kickboxer any time soon, he gave Tatsuya Kawajiri some problems on the feet prior to submitting him in their 2016 bout.

More worryingly for Swanson, it does appear that ‘Killer Cub’ is now on a downward spiral. You’ve got to go back to his April 2017 win over Artem Lobov to find his last win – he’s currently on a four-fight slide – and while he took the dangerous Shane Burgos to a split decision in his last outing, he’s been taking more shots than he ever took a few years ago, seems to get hurt in most of his fights these days, and generally appears much slower than he once did.

And he’s also shown a penchant for finding himself in tricky situations on the ground, too. Swanson is a BJJ black belt in his own right, but 7 of his 10 losses have come by submission and recently, he’s been tapped out twice, by Brian Ortega and Renato Moicano. Both men are strong grapplers in their own right, but neither is on the same level as Kron Gracie.

Basically for me this comes down to two questions: firstly, how far gone is Swanson? At nearly 36 years old there’s no denying he’s lost a step – it’s hardly surprising given he’s had some serious wars in a 36-fight career – and if he’s genuinely coming to the end of his career then I can see him coming out tentatively and being taken down and submitted by Gracie.

The second question though is how good is Gracie, really? The win over Caceres was good but as I’ve said, Caceres is notoriously inconsistent. The skills appear to be there for Kron but he just hasn’t gone through any adversity yet. With that said, he’s not completely unused to losing – he’s lost plenty of grappling matches and has even been tapped before.

In the end I just can’t trust a 35-year old Swanson who’s on a 4-fight losing streak. Even if Kron doesn’t quite turn out to be the real deal, I think he’ll impress here by getting inside Swanson, forcing him into the cage, taking him down and submitting him. To see Cub retire afterwards wouldn’t shock me either.

The Pick: Gracie via first round submission

#3 Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas

Mackenzie Dern makes her return this weekend after more than a year away from the UFC

It’s been a long time since we’ve seen Mackenzie Dern – she’s been out since May 2018 – and while she’s come under a lot of criticism already in her short UFC career, I’m glad to see her back. Simply put, she’s one of the most talented grapplers in the world at 115lbs and if she can really focus in on MMA following her break – she became a mother in her time away – she might have the potential to become a contender.

Where has that criticism come from, then? Well, the barbs that have been aimed her way usually try to claim that she isn’t taking MMA seriously and she’d rather be surfing. Judging by her Instagram, she clearly enjoys surfing, but the ‘not taking MMA seriously’ theory largely comes from the fact that she’s missed weight on 3 occasions in just 7 fights.

That isn’t great, but surely it just points at a need for her to probably be fighting at 125lbs rather than 115lbs? Sure, she isn’t a svelte 115lbs, but then female fighters looking as ripped as their male counterparts are few and far between – and when they do appear, they tend to be accused (usually unfairly) of steroid use. In all honesty, it feels like Dern can’t really win in that sense.

At any rate, she’s returning to the UFC at 115lbs again and we’ll find out at weigh-in time whether that’s the correct call for her. What have we seen from her thus far? Her strength is clearly in her grappling game; like Kron Gracie she’s massively credentialed and accomplished in the world of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, and like Kron she’s a former ADCC grappling champion.

Her striking isn’t as great, but she does throw punches with big power – just ask Amanda Cooper, who got dropped with a huge right hook en route to a rear naked choke loss – and while she also isn’t the most technical in terms of her takedowns, she was able to do enough in the wrestling department to pick up a UFC debut win over Ashley Yoder.

Opponent Ribas looks like a good match for her, too. Sure, she won her UFC debut impressively, choking out Emily Whitmire, but she’s also almost as inexperienced at 7-1 and from what I’ve seen of her, she’s more of a grappling-based fighter than a striker – even if she has three TKO wins on her ledger.

That makes me suspect she won’t be able to stop Mackenzie’s takedowns – and even if she can, she’s probably likely to engage her on the mat on at least a couple of occasions. That should be a mistake against a grappler of Dern’s quality and so I’m taking Dern to win this one via tapout. Hopefully she makes weight now, too.

The Pick: Dern via first round submission

#4 Matt Frevola vs. Luis Pena

Could Luis Pena develop into a contender at 155lbs?

It seems like ages since Luis Pena burst onto the scene via the 27th season of The Ultimate Fighter, but in reality ‘The Violent Bob Ross’ has only actually had four UFC bouts thus far. Pegged as the early favourite to win that TUF season, Pena ended up dropping out of the tournament due to injury and then returned on the Finale show to pick up a debut win via guillotine choke.

The idea that he should’ve won the season was then wiped out, however, when he lost pretty handily to the actual victor Michael Trizano just under a year ago. Pena then attempted to drop to 145lbs, but while he beat Steven Peterson in their fight, he missed weight by three pounds. That triggered a move back to 155lbs – where he recently knocked out veteran Matt Wiman.

So how good is ‘The Violent Bob Ross’? It’s honestly hard to tell at this point. From what I’ve seen though, it’s quite clear to me that his biggest strength is also one of his biggest weaknesses. On offense, Pena is dynamic, makes the most of his lanky 6’3” frame, and he’s also incredibly aggressive, willing to attack his opponent wherever the fight takes place.

Unfortunately, it was that aggressive style that landed him in trouble in his only career loss to Trizano. Pena simply focused far too much on flashy and aggressive offense, and not only did that cause him to gas out somewhat, but it also meant that he was willing to put himself into bad positions while Trizano stuck to the basics – and did enough to outwork Pena for three rounds.

He’s won both of his subsequent fights, but the Peterson fight suggested he hasn’t really changed all that much – he was still incredibly aggressive and while he was far superior to Peterson in all areas, basically, he allowed ‘Ocho’ to stay in the fight by pushing too hard for the finish and getting into risky situations in the process. He looked fantastic in the Wiman fight, but then Wiman was never allowed out of the blocks and realistically, he’s miles past his prime.

Can Matt Frevola replicate Trizano’s gameplan and grind ‘The Violent Bob Ross’ down? I’m not sold personally. The New Yorker – a student of Matt Serra and Ray Longo – came into the UFC following a submission win on Dana White’s Contender Series, but was then knocked out pretty violently by Polo Reyes. He’s since picked up a draw against Lando Vannata and a win over Jalin Turner, and in general he looks extremely tough and a pretty solid grappler.

The problem for him here though is that I just don’t think he has the workmanlike style to grind Pena down – for me he’s just not that great of an athlete – and I can see him getting hurt if he tries to chase Pena down as he did with Vannata and Turner, even if he was able to succeed against Turner in dragging him to the ground.

Given Pena is a stout wrestler capable of doing damage on the ground himself, I think he’s got the advantages in all areas outside of pure submission grappling – assuming he doesn’t burn himself out early on. If he can beat Frevola with controlled aggression, it could signal that he’s a potential future contender. Even if he doesn’t, I still think he has enough to come away with the victory.

The Pick: Pena via unanimous decision

#5 Eryk Anders vs. Gerald Meerschaert

Eryk Anders is one of the heaviest hitters in the 185lbs division

For me this fight should be all about how well Eryk Anders can continue to rebound from his recent struggles. ‘Ya Boi’ looked great in his KO of Vinicius Moreira in June, but this fight will be his first at his more natural weight of 185lbs for some time. Last time we saw Anders at Middleweight, he was edged out by Elias Theodorou in a fight that he would’ve won under PRIDE judging, but Meerschaert promises to offer a different test entirely.

‘The Machine’ isn’t anywhere near the athlete that Anders is, but at 29-11 he’s a very savvy veteran capable of finishing opponents both standing and on the ground. He’s also tough as leather – Thiago Santos became the first man to stop him with strikes at UFC 213, and that was in his 35th professional bout. He’s never going to be a title contender, but he’s very capable of winning this fight.

Anders’ strengths obviously lie in his massive punching power, particularly at 185lbs. He’s not the most nuanced striker but he’s not a wild brawler either, preferring to throw heavy straight punches rather than wild haymakers. The fact that he’s basically hurt every opponent he’s faced – outside of the much larger Khalil Rountree – bodes well for him, but he’s also got some notable weaknesses.

‘Ya Boi’ is a relatively low-output striker – hence Theodorou being able to outwork him despite being badly hurt by Anders’ punches – and despite a highlight reel head kick knockout of Tim Williams, he’s almost exclusively a boxer when it comes to his striking style. He’s also very straightforward, which enabled Lyoto Machida to cut angles on him and manage to outpoint him despite also being hurt on a few occasions.

With that in mind then, this could be a winnable fight for Gerald Meerschaert if he can fight the smart fight – basically pick at Anders from range, avoid the big punches, and even hit a takedown or two if the possibility arises. The issue for me with Meerschaert however is just that lack of pure athletic ability. It’s quite telling that Meerschaert’s UFC wins have come against fighters who also aren’t explosive athletes – Oskar Piechota, Eric Spicely for instance – and his losses have come against explosive fighters like Santos and Kevin Holland.

In the end I’m leaning towards Anders here; it’s a close one to call because Meerschaert does have the skill to win, but I just can’t trust him not to get hit hard by the more explosive athlete, and even if Anders can’t knock him out, a knockdown or some big punches across the three rounds should be enough to win him a decision.

The Pick: Anders via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

The always-exciting Niko Price headlines this weekend's prelims

This is quite the monster card; all of the prelims are being shown on ESPN+ and there’s a crazy eight of them as of the time of writing, meaning the show will be a slog to get through even if it’s largely exciting.

At the top of the prelim card we’ve got a Welterweight bout between Niko Price and James Vick that should largely guarantee action, given Price might be top five in the UFC right now when it comes to sheer wildness in the cage. This will be Vick’s first outing at 170lbs, and I don’t see it going well for him; his 6’3” frame suddenly isn’t as much of an advantage as it once was and Price has the same reach. Throw in the fact that Vick’s chin is very questionable and Price has the kind of aggression that someone like Justin Gaethje brings, and I think he’s going to take it. Price via first-round KO is my pick.

At Light-Heavyweight, Ryan Spann faces Devin Clark in a somewhat curious fight; Spann is on a 6-fight win streak and knocked out Rogerio Nogueira in his last fight, meaning I would’ve expected a higher match for him. I think he’ll take this one, anyway; Clark is a solid all-rounder but doesn’t stand out in any area while Spann’s lanky frame and reach make him very dangerous, even if his chin isn’t the best. I’ll go with Spann via KO.

In a key Flyweight bout, Deiveson Figueiredo faces off with former title challenger Tim Elliott, who hasn’t been seen since December 2017 following a badly torn ACL. This sounds like a horrific fight for him to return with, too; Elliott is a slick grappler and an unorthodox striker, but Figueiredo hits insanely hard for 125lbs and even if Jussier Formiga showed that a savvy veteran can outwork him, the likelihood is that the Brazilian has improved – and for someone coming off nearly two years on the shelf, that doesn’t bode well. I’ll take Figueiredo via decision.

Max Griffin faces Alex Morono at Welterweight in what is likely to be a striking-based match. Morono is a surprisingly solid fighter with a UFC record of 5-3, but I like Griffin here; his striking is very impressive and he showed a lot of skill and patience to outpoint Mike Perry last year even if he’s faced some tricky times since. Griffin via decision is my pick.

At Welterweight, the fantastically nicknamed Miguel Baeza – AKA ‘Caramel Thunder’ – takes on former TUF: Latin America contestant Hector Aldana. I have to say I know very little about Baeza, but I’m taking him anyway; Aldana hasn’t impressed in two UFC outings while Baeza is 6-0 and appears to have heavy hands. I’ll take Baeza via TKO.

Middleweights Andrew Sanchez and Marvin Vettori face off in a fight that should’ve happened back in September but was delayed due to injury. For me, this one comes down to whether Vettori can stop Sanchez’s takedown, as the TUF winner hasn’t shown a lot outside of his wrestling game thus far. Vettori has seemingly been getting better and better over time, so I like the Italian to stop Sanchez’s takedown and outwork him for a decision here.

At Flyweight, JJ Aldrich returns to face Lauren Mueller. Neither of these two women are the best athlete, but Aldrich was impressive in her fight with Maycee Barber earlier in the year; Barber stopped her eventually, but Aldrich’s stand-up looked very sharp and so I think she can use that to earn a late TKO here.

Finally, at Bantamweight, Marlon Vera squares off with Andre Ewell in what could be a great fight; if the UFC chooses to move a prelim to the main card I hope it’s this one. Ewell is a well-rounded, gutsy fighter, but I like Vera here; his offense is phenomenal and while he’s beatable, I don’t think Ewell has enough to avoid both his explosive stand-up and his slick submissions. I like Vera via tapout.