UFC Fight Night 161: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson - Predictions and Picks

#4 Matt Frevola vs. Luis Pena

Could Luis Pena develop into a contender at 155lbs?

It seems like ages since Luis Pena burst onto the scene via the 27th season of The Ultimate Fighter, but in reality ‘The Violent Bob Ross’ has only actually had four UFC bouts thus far. Pegged as the early favourite to win that TUF season, Pena ended up dropping out of the tournament due to injury and then returned on the Finale show to pick up a debut win via guillotine choke.

The idea that he should’ve won the season was then wiped out, however, when he lost pretty handily to the actual victor Michael Trizano just under a year ago. Pena then attempted to drop to 145lbs, but while he beat Steven Peterson in their fight, he missed weight by three pounds. That triggered a move back to 155lbs – where he recently knocked out veteran Matt Wiman.

So how good is ‘The Violent Bob Ross’? It’s honestly hard to tell at this point. From what I’ve seen though, it’s quite clear to me that his biggest strength is also one of his biggest weaknesses. On offense, Pena is dynamic, makes the most of his lanky 6’3” frame, and he’s also incredibly aggressive, willing to attack his opponent wherever the fight takes place.

Unfortunately, it was that aggressive style that landed him in trouble in his only career loss to Trizano. Pena simply focused far too much on flashy and aggressive offense, and not only did that cause him to gas out somewhat, but it also meant that he was willing to put himself into bad positions while Trizano stuck to the basics – and did enough to outwork Pena for three rounds.

He’s won both of his subsequent fights, but the Peterson fight suggested he hasn’t really changed all that much – he was still incredibly aggressive and while he was far superior to Peterson in all areas, basically, he allowed ‘Ocho’ to stay in the fight by pushing too hard for the finish and getting into risky situations in the process. He looked fantastic in the Wiman fight, but then Wiman was never allowed out of the blocks and realistically, he’s miles past his prime.

Can Matt Frevola replicate Trizano’s gameplan and grind ‘The Violent Bob Ross’ down? I’m not sold personally. The New Yorker – a student of Matt Serra and Ray Longo – came into the UFC following a submission win on Dana White’s Contender Series, but was then knocked out pretty violently by Polo Reyes. He’s since picked up a draw against Lando Vannata and a win over Jalin Turner, and in general he looks extremely tough and a pretty solid grappler.

The problem for him here though is that I just don’t think he has the workmanlike style to grind Pena down – for me he’s just not that great of an athlete – and I can see him getting hurt if he tries to chase Pena down as he did with Vannata and Turner, even if he was able to succeed against Turner in dragging him to the ground.

Given Pena is a stout wrestler capable of doing damage on the ground himself, I think he’s got the advantages in all areas outside of pure submission grappling – assuming he doesn’t burn himself out early on. If he can beat Frevola with controlled aggression, it could signal that he’s a potential future contender. Even if he doesn’t, I still think he has enough to come away with the victory.

The Pick: Pena via unanimous decision