UFC Fight Night 161: Jedrzejczyk vs. Waterson - Predictions and Picks

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

The always-exciting Niko Price headlines this weekend's prelims

This is quite the monster card; all of the prelims are being shown on ESPN+ and there’s a crazy eight of them as of the time of writing, meaning the show will be a slog to get through even if it’s largely exciting.

At the top of the prelim card we’ve got a Welterweight bout between Niko Price and James Vick that should largely guarantee action, given Price might be top five in the UFC right now when it comes to sheer wildness in the cage. This will be Vick’s first outing at 170lbs, and I don’t see it going well for him; his 6’3” frame suddenly isn’t as much of an advantage as it once was and Price has the same reach. Throw in the fact that Vick’s chin is very questionable and Price has the kind of aggression that someone like Justin Gaethje brings, and I think he’s going to take it. Price via first-round KO is my pick.

At Light-Heavyweight, Ryan Spann faces Devin Clark in a somewhat curious fight; Spann is on a 6-fight win streak and knocked out Rogerio Nogueira in his last fight, meaning I would’ve expected a higher match for him. I think he’ll take this one, anyway; Clark is a solid all-rounder but doesn’t stand out in any area while Spann’s lanky frame and reach make him very dangerous, even if his chin isn’t the best. I’ll go with Spann via KO.

In a key Flyweight bout, Deiveson Figueiredo faces off with former title challenger Tim Elliott, who hasn’t been seen since December 2017 following a badly torn ACL. This sounds like a horrific fight for him to return with, too; Elliott is a slick grappler and an unorthodox striker, but Figueiredo hits insanely hard for 125lbs and even if Jussier Formiga showed that a savvy veteran can outwork him, the likelihood is that the Brazilian has improved – and for someone coming off nearly two years on the shelf, that doesn’t bode well. I’ll take Figueiredo via decision.

Max Griffin faces Alex Morono at Welterweight in what is likely to be a striking-based match. Morono is a surprisingly solid fighter with a UFC record of 5-3, but I like Griffin here; his striking is very impressive and he showed a lot of skill and patience to outpoint Mike Perry last year even if he’s faced some tricky times since. Griffin via decision is my pick.

At Welterweight, the fantastically nicknamed Miguel Baeza – AKA ‘Caramel Thunder’ – takes on former TUF: Latin America contestant Hector Aldana. I have to say I know very little about Baeza, but I’m taking him anyway; Aldana hasn’t impressed in two UFC outings while Baeza is 6-0 and appears to have heavy hands. I’ll take Baeza via TKO.

Middleweights Andrew Sanchez and Marvin Vettori face off in a fight that should’ve happened back in September but was delayed due to injury. For me, this one comes down to whether Vettori can stop Sanchez’s takedown, as the TUF winner hasn’t shown a lot outside of his wrestling game thus far. Vettori has seemingly been getting better and better over time, so I like the Italian to stop Sanchez’s takedown and outwork him for a decision here.

At Flyweight, JJ Aldrich returns to face Lauren Mueller. Neither of these two women are the best athlete, but Aldrich was impressive in her fight with Maycee Barber earlier in the year; Barber stopped her eventually, but Aldrich’s stand-up looked very sharp and so I think she can use that to earn a late TKO here.

Finally, at Bantamweight, Marlon Vera squares off with Andre Ewell in what could be a great fight; if the UFC chooses to move a prelim to the main card I hope it’s this one. Ewell is a well-rounded, gutsy fighter, but I like Vera here; his offense is phenomenal and while he’s beatable, I don’t think Ewell has enough to avoid both his explosive stand-up and his slick submissions. I like Vera via tapout.