UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs. Jacare - Predictions and Picks

The UFC returns to Brazil this weekend for the first time since May, heading to Sao Paulo for UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs. Jacare. As always with the UFC’s Brazilian cards, it’s a very mixed bag; the top of the card sounds decent and has some name value, albeit with a former champion far past his prime in the co-main event.

The preliminary fights also sound pretty strong, but really they’re not going to pique the interest of the casual fan. Not many of these Fight Nights do, though, so all we can hope for are some exciting fights.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs. Jacare.

#1 Jan Blachowicz vs. Ronaldo ‘Jacare’ Souza

After knocking out Luke Rockhold, can Jan Blachowicz take out another former Middleweight?

Fighters moving up to 205lbs from 185lbs has become quite common recently; it probably stems from a couple of things. Firstly, that the Middleweight division has quite a stacked title scene while Light-Heavyweight simply doesn’t due to the dominance of Jon Jones.

And secondly, that Jones’ last two challengers – Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos – were recognised more as journeymen than contenders at 185lbs prior to their move.

Essentially then, the logic suggests that if Smith and Santos could succeed at 205lbs, then better 185lbers should be able to succeed too. Up to this point though, that hasn’t been the case. Former champions Luke Rockhold and Chris Weidman were both violently knocked out in their debuts at 205lbs – so can the latest man to make the move, Brazil’s ‘Jacare’ be the one that bucks the trend?

He’s certainly not faced with an easy task in his first fight in his new division. Poland’s Blachowicz was just one fight away from a shot at Jones at the start of 2019 following a four-fight winning streak, but was knocked out by Santos at the final hurdle. He’s since bounced back by knocking Rockhold out, though, and a win here would put him in good stead for at least a top contender’s match in early 2020.

A powerful striker, Blachowicz tends to use more of a boxing style in his fights. He has been known to make use of violent body kicks – he used one to stop Ilir Latifi back in 2014, for instance – but against the likes of Jimi Manuwa and Rockhold it was his hands that did the work.

Manuwa was largely beaten by a ramrod jab that allowed the Pole to set up his heavier shots, while Rockhold fell victim to a brutal counter left hook that turned his lights out immediately.

In terms of weaknesses? You can’t question his chin as the Santos KO was the first one he’d suffered in his career, and it’s rare to see him stunned or rocked in his fights. His ground game was once a major Achilles heel; he had nothing from his back in losses to Corey Anderson and Alexander Gustafsson, but he’s since developed greatly in that area and even tapped Nikita Krylov in 2018.

He’s not the fastest fighter out there at 205lbs, especially compared to the more explosive athletes like Jones, Santos and Dominick Reyes – in fact, he comes off as plodding at times, but his boxing technique and chin means that he hasn’t really fallen foul of that issue recently.

Everyone knows exactly how Jacare operates at this point, as he’s been around in the UFC since 2013 and has only made tweaks to his game rather than huge leaps forward in technique.

He’s one of the very best grapplers on the planet and is as dangerous as anyone in the UFC on the ground, particularly from top position. On the feet he’s extremely powerful with his punches and is a solid boxer, but technically he’s not the greatest as we saw when Chris Weidman was able to take two rounds from him with a long jab before Jacare came back to knock him out.

For me this fight is pretty simple; if Jacare can get Blachowicz down then there’s every chance he can get him out of there with a submission. For all of the Pole’s improvements on the ground he just hasn’t fought a grappler as good as Jacare before, and he still doesn’t seem to be the most natural on the mat despite picking up a couple of recent submissions. That’s contingent on a couple of things, however, which could make it difficult.

Firstly, fighters moving up in weight usually tend to bring a speed advantage with them, but I’m not sure that’ll be the case with Souza – he’s an explosive athlete, but was never the fastest man at 185lbs and as we saw against Jack Hermansson in April, that’s even more evident as he approaches his 40th birthday. The fact that Jacare’s cardio is no longer what it was also suggests he can’t afford to make too many explosive bursts.

What worries me the most for him here though is the fact that he’ll be giving up a substantial amount of reach to Blachowicz, who is only one inch taller, but has a 78” reach to Jacare’s 72”. That’s identical to the reach of Weidman, who was able to piece Jacare up with his jab – and I’d argue that Blachowicz is more adept at boxing than Weidman and hits harder too.

This move to 205lbs might pay off for Jacare at some point in the future; as he gets older the weight cut to 185lbs won’t get easier and he will come across potential opponents who he matches well with stylistically. Unfortunately, this isn’t one of them in my opinion, particularly over five rounds.

I expect Blachowicz to jab him continually from the off with Jacare struggling to get inside the reach, and in the later rounds a heavy shot from the Pole will do its job and silence the Brazilian crowd.

The Pick: Blachowicz via fourth round KO

#2 Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Paul Craig

Does Shogun Rua have enough left in the tank to beat Paul Craig?

It’s hard to believe it, but we’re nearly 15 years down the line from the PRIDE Grand Prix that saw Shogun burst onto the elite scene at Light-Heavyweight, beating the likes of Rampage Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona. Hell, we’re practically a decade removed from Shogun knocking out Lyoto Machida to claim the UFC Light-Heavyweight title! Time flies in MMA.

Should Shogun still be fighting? In all honesty, probably not. 2018 saw him knocked out in violent fashion by Anthony Smith, and while he returned to TKO Tyson Pedro in December, that fight was highly sloppy and saw both men run out of steam. He turns 38 in a couple of weeks and he’s got nothing left to prove, so why continue?

Regardless, he’s back this weekend to face late replacement Paul Craig, who stepped in a couple of weeks ago to replace Sam Alvey, who broke his hand in training. And surprisingly enough? This is actually a reasonable fight for Shogun, one that he ought to win despite his clear deterioration.

I like Craig a lot because he’s simply not the best athlete out there and so he’s got to the level that he has due to sheer hard work and practice. It’s not that he isn’t skilled, but realistically he’s not the best striker and his grappling tends to consist of him hunting for submissions from his back. He’s not terrible from the clinch to be fair, but against some of the more explosive 205lbers, he’s always going to struggle.

That’s why it was such a breath of fresh air to see him defeat the likes of Magomed Ankalaev and Kennedy Nzechukwu, essentially just by being able to hang in there during tough periods before catching his tired opponent in a submission. And wasn’t that the whole idea of Gracie Jiu-Jitsu in the first place?

Anyhow, the issue for him in this fight is that it’s just super-unlikely that he’s going to be able to submit a skilled grappler like Shogun – who’s a legitimate BJJ black belt – from his back, it’s highly unlikely that he’s going to be able to take even this aged version of Shogun down, and on the feet it’s likely to be a mismatch in the Brazilian’s favour despite Shogun’s deterioration.

Craig might have some success early on by clinching with Shogun, but I can’t see him being able to put enough meaningful offense together to really harm the former champion, and I don’t think his chin is strong enough to take the heat that Shogun’s going to throw at him. And if nothing else, Shogun’s power and finishing instincts remain intact.

The Pick: Shogun via first round KO

#3 Charles Oliveira vs. Jared Gordon

Can Charles Oliveira pick up his 6th win in a row?

For me, this one is a piece of baffling matchmaking from the UFC. Oliveira – the holder of the record for most submission victories in UFC history with 13, even above the likes of Demian Maia and Royce Gracie – is currently riding a 5-fight win streak and hasn’t seen a fight go the distance since 2014. Essentially, ‘Do Bronx’ is probably in the form of his career right now.

Which is why it’s so confusing that he’s been matched with Gordon, a somewhat nondescript fighter who bounced back from two TKO losses to edge the equally nondescript Dan Moret in June via decision. Sure, the fight was an exciting affair that saw Gordon perform well both on the ground and on the feet, but Oliveira should’ve been given a step up the ladder here and arguably, Gordon is the lowest-level opponent he’s taken on since 2017.

‘Flash Gordon’ is a pretty solid fighter in all areas; a classic jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none, his best attribute is probably his boxing, both from range and in the clinch. In his first UFC win over Brazilian veteran Hacran Dias for instance, he was able to beat his opponent up with crisp combinations, although he wasn’t able to pick up a finish.

The problem for him is that he simply can’t rely on his boxing to win all of the time because of two reasons. Firstly, his chin isn’t great – he was arguably beating Joaquim Silva in their fight before succumbing to some big punches late in the third – and his takedown defense isn’t that strong either, as he usually ends up trying to fend off submission attempts on the ground at some point during his fights.

That just isn’t going to wash against Oliveira. ‘Do Bronx’ can be knocked out, but he’s only gone down to really heavy hitters like Paul Felder or Cub Swanson, and Gordon just doesn’t seem to carry big power in his hands. More to the point, he’s a good enough striker with long range – 74” reach to Gordon’s 68” – that it’ll mean ‘Flash’ has to come inside to catch him. And that will land him right into Oliveira’s wheelhouse.

If Oliveira gets Gordon down I think this fight will be done. I know Gordon fended off submissions against the likes of Moret and Dias, but let’s be frank – they’re not on the same level as Oliveira when it comes to dangerous submission attempts. There’s a reason this guy has 13 tapouts to his name in the UFC – and I fully expect that to turn into 14 after Saturday is over.

The Pick: Oliveira via first round submission

#4 Antonio Arroyo vs. Andre Muniz

Can Andre Muniz's experience help him past Antonio Arroyo?

Not sure how this one made the main card, to be honest. These two Middleweights are products of Dana White’s Contender Series, with Muniz stepping in on relatively late notice to replace the injured Kevin Holland. Curiously, both men actually won a fight on the Brazilian version of the Contender Series before following that with a win on the US version to cement their UFC status.

The problem in trying to preview a fight like this is that there’s so little to go on – neither man has been a renowned prospect for years and while there’s footage of them available on YouTube, you just can’t read a lot into victories over fellow prospects, journeymen or tomato cans on the Brazilian regional scene. The only name that stands out on either man’s ledger? Muniz has a win over Paulo Filho – but it came in 2014 so it doesn’t mean too much.

Basically from what I can tell, both men are willing strikers but their better work comes on the ground, where both men appear to be skilled Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artists. They have 16 submissions between them and clearly know how to finish a fight, but it’s Muniz who has far more experience; 18 wins while Arroyo has just 11 fights overall.

Putting two debutants like this is always a bit of a crap-shoot – it’s near impossible to predict how they’ll react to the UFC stage, and given they’ve really fought no notable opponents you just can’t read a lot into their previous outings. I’m taking Muniz based on his experience but to be frank, there haven’t been many fights I’ve been less confident in picking in 2019.

The Pick: Muniz via unanimous decision

#5 Markus Perez vs. Wellington Turman

Wellington Turman lost a controversial decision to Karl Roberson in his UFC debut

This battle of Brazilian Welterweights might not be heavy on name value but it should at least give us some excitement. Turman’s debut was nothing to write home about – he was controversially beaten by Karl Roberson in June – but prior to that he’d racked up 15 wins, with just 4 of them going the distance.

Perez meanwhile is a finisher, whether that’s via strikes or submissions, and he’s aggressive to a fault. His 2-2 record in the UFC is a bit of an outlier actually in that he’s far more talented than it might suggest. Eryk Anders beat him largely by being able to hit him very hard, while Andrew Sanchez basically just held him in the clinch, but the fact that his last fight before his UFC debut saw him submit the ultra-tough Ian Heinisch should tell you a lot.

He’ll almost definitely be the more explosive fighter in this battle. Turman has somewhat of a plodding style on the feet as compared to Perez’s more aggressive and sharp striking, and he relies largely on takedowns from the clinch to muscle his opponent down and look to take their back for a submission.

Against Roberson that tactic served him well; Roberson was awarded the fight by split decision, but in all honesty Turman should probably have had his hand raised due to the dominant positions he was able to gain on the ground. The issue here though is that Roberson was a kickboxer with little ground experience, while Perez is a genuine Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt.

Could Turman channel Sanchez’s gameplan and simply stifle Perez in the clinch for a decision? I’m not convinced he can. Sanchez is a tremendous wrestler and a high-level athlete while Turman honestly isn’t, and I’m not sure that he has the movement needed to corral Perez against the fence, either.

In the end I just feel like Perez is the slightly better athlete and the slightly more skilled fighter in all areas, so I’m taking him to win this one probably by decision, although to see him finish Turman late in the fight wouldn’t be a surprise.

The Pick: Perez via unanimous decision

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Francisco Trinaldo's fight with Bobby Green is probably the weekend's best prelim on paper

The entirety of Saturday’s card will be shown on ESPN+, and somewhat frustratingly, there are some fantastic fights on the prelims that probably should’ve been placed on the main card instead.

The Welterweight bout between Sergio Moraes and James Krause will headline the prelim portion, and it should come down to where the fight takes place. Krause is an excellent striker who’s a willing grappler, while Moraes is a world-class grappler who has a wild but hittable striking style. Given Moraes’ advanced age (37) and the fact that he doesn’t possess the greatest takedowns, I think Krause has enough to take this one via decision.

At Featherweight, Uruguay’s Luiz Garagorri returns to face prospect Ricardo Ramos, who outside of a quick loss to Said Nurmagomedov in February, has always looked pretty solid. Garagorri is unbeaten at 13-0 and looked solid in his UFC debut, but he just hasn’t faced the kind of opposition that Ramos has. I’ve got to pick Ramos based on that so I’ll go with a second-round submission.

Brazilian crowd favorite Francisco Trinaldo returns at Lightweight to take on Bobby Green in a real veteran’s battle. Last time we saw Trinaldo he largely got robbed by the judges in a fight with Alexander Hernandez, but outside of that he’s a tremendous fighter in all areas who belies his 41 years.

Green, on the other hand, has always been largely unpredictable and somewhat inconsistent. His boxing is solid but his habit of dropping his hands never helps him with the judges, and while he’s a strong wrestler, his ground game might not be enough to fend off Trinaldo if ‘Massaranduba’ takes him down. I think Trinaldo’s superior volume and work rate pulls him through this one and gives him a decision.

In an interesting Welterweight bout, Warlley Alves takes on Randy Brown. Alves was once considered one of the best prospects in the division – he’s responsible for Colby Covington’s only career loss – but the holes in his game have since been somewhat exposed in that he slows down tremendously in the later rounds and struggles if he can’t put an opponent away early.

He did look much improved in his May win over Sergio Moraes, however. Brown’s long-range makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone but he also lacks durability in all areas. Brown can win this one if he can outlast Alves but judging on Warlley’s last outing, he may finally be able to put everything together. Alves via submission is my pick.

In a big surprise, the UFC are wheeling out the corpse of Renan Barao once again to face Douglas Silva De Andrade at Featherweight. Barao was once one of the most feared fighters in the world, but he’s also 2-6 since his 2014 loss to TJ Dillashaw and seems to have lost any kind of durability, drive and cardio these days.

He’s only 32, but he actually looks more aged in the Octagon than even Shogun Rua does. D’Silva hasn’t fought since last December – a brutal loss at the hands of Petr Yan that may yet catch up with him – but I think he’ll take a KO over the shot former champion here.

At Bantamweight, Vanessa Melo faces off with newcomer Tracy Cortez, who is moving up from Flyweight to make her UFC debut. Melo struggled in her own UFC debut, failing to put together any meaningful offense against Irene Aldana, but Cortez – a childhood friend of Henry Cejudo – is smaller and isn’t as strong a kickboxer as Aldana. Despite that I’m not convinced at all that Melo is a UFC-level fighter, so I’m going with Cortez via decision.

Finally at Flyweight, Ariane Lipski returns to face Veronica Macedo. Lipski – a talented striker – hasn’t lived up to her pre-UFC hype thus far, dropping fights to Joanne Calderwood and Molly McCann, but this fight is much more winnable for her as she has more experience than Macedo and is a far better athlete. I’ll take Lipski via TKO in this one.