UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs. Jacare - Predictions and Picks

#2 Mauricio ‘Shogun’ Rua vs. Paul Craig

Does Shogun Rua have enough left in the tank to beat Paul Craig?

It’s hard to believe it, but we’re nearly 15 years down the line from the PRIDE Grand Prix that saw Shogun burst onto the elite scene at Light-Heavyweight, beating the likes of Rampage Jackson, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira and Ricardo Arona. Hell, we’re practically a decade removed from Shogun knocking out Lyoto Machida to claim the UFC Light-Heavyweight title! Time flies in MMA.

Should Shogun still be fighting? In all honesty, probably not. 2018 saw him knocked out in violent fashion by Anthony Smith, and while he returned to TKO Tyson Pedro in December, that fight was highly sloppy and saw both men run out of steam. He turns 38 in a couple of weeks and he’s got nothing left to prove, so why continue?

Regardless, he’s back this weekend to face late replacement Paul Craig, who stepped in a couple of weeks ago to replace Sam Alvey, who broke his hand in training. And surprisingly enough? This is actually a reasonable fight for Shogun, one that he ought to win despite his clear deterioration.

I like Craig a lot because he’s simply not the best athlete out there and so he’s got to the level that he has due to sheer hard work and practice. It’s not that he isn’t skilled, but realistically he’s not the best striker and his grappling tends to consist of him hunting for submissions from his back. He’s not terrible from the clinch to be fair, but against some of the more explosive 205lbers, he’s always going to struggle.

That’s why it was such a breath of fresh air to see him defeat the likes of Magomed Ankalaev and Kennedy Nzechukwu, essentially just by being able to hang in there during tough periods before catching his tired opponent in a submission. And wasn’t that the whole idea of Gracie Jiu-Jitsu in the first place?

Anyhow, the issue for him in this fight is that it’s just super-unlikely that he’s going to be able to submit a skilled grappler like Shogun – who’s a legitimate BJJ black belt – from his back, it’s highly unlikely that he’s going to be able to take even this aged version of Shogun down, and on the feet it’s likely to be a mismatch in the Brazilian’s favour despite Shogun’s deterioration.

Craig might have some success early on by clinching with Shogun, but I can’t see him being able to put enough meaningful offense together to really harm the former champion, and I don’t think his chin is strong enough to take the heat that Shogun’s going to throw at him. And if nothing else, Shogun’s power and finishing instincts remain intact.

The Pick: Shogun via first round KO