UFC Fight Night 164: Blachowicz vs. Jacare - Predictions and Picks

#6 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Francisco Trinaldo's fight with Bobby Green is probably the weekend's best prelim on paper

The entirety of Saturday’s card will be shown on ESPN+, and somewhat frustratingly, there are some fantastic fights on the prelims that probably should’ve been placed on the main card instead.

The Welterweight bout between Sergio Moraes and James Krause will headline the prelim portion, and it should come down to where the fight takes place. Krause is an excellent striker who’s a willing grappler, while Moraes is a world-class grappler who has a wild but hittable striking style. Given Moraes’ advanced age (37) and the fact that he doesn’t possess the greatest takedowns, I think Krause has enough to take this one via decision.

At Featherweight, Uruguay’s Luiz Garagorri returns to face prospect Ricardo Ramos, who outside of a quick loss to Said Nurmagomedov in February, has always looked pretty solid. Garagorri is unbeaten at 13-0 and looked solid in his UFC debut, but he just hasn’t faced the kind of opposition that Ramos has. I’ve got to pick Ramos based on that so I’ll go with a second-round submission.

Brazilian crowd favorite Francisco Trinaldo returns at Lightweight to take on Bobby Green in a real veteran’s battle. Last time we saw Trinaldo he largely got robbed by the judges in a fight with Alexander Hernandez, but outside of that he’s a tremendous fighter in all areas who belies his 41 years.

Green, on the other hand, has always been largely unpredictable and somewhat inconsistent. His boxing is solid but his habit of dropping his hands never helps him with the judges, and while he’s a strong wrestler, his ground game might not be enough to fend off Trinaldo if ‘Massaranduba’ takes him down. I think Trinaldo’s superior volume and work rate pulls him through this one and gives him a decision.

In an interesting Welterweight bout, Warlley Alves takes on Randy Brown. Alves was once considered one of the best prospects in the division – he’s responsible for Colby Covington’s only career loss – but the holes in his game have since been somewhat exposed in that he slows down tremendously in the later rounds and struggles if he can’t put an opponent away early.

He did look much improved in his May win over Sergio Moraes, however. Brown’s long-range makes him a dangerous opponent for anyone but he also lacks durability in all areas. Brown can win this one if he can outlast Alves but judging on Warlley’s last outing, he may finally be able to put everything together. Alves via submission is my pick.

In a big surprise, the UFC are wheeling out the corpse of Renan Barao once again to face Douglas Silva De Andrade at Featherweight. Barao was once one of the most feared fighters in the world, but he’s also 2-6 since his 2014 loss to TJ Dillashaw and seems to have lost any kind of durability, drive and cardio these days.

He’s only 32, but he actually looks more aged in the Octagon than even Shogun Rua does. D’Silva hasn’t fought since last December – a brutal loss at the hands of Petr Yan that may yet catch up with him – but I think he’ll take a KO over the shot former champion here.

At Bantamweight, Vanessa Melo faces off with newcomer Tracy Cortez, who is moving up from Flyweight to make her UFC debut. Melo struggled in her own UFC debut, failing to put together any meaningful offense against Irene Aldana, but Cortez – a childhood friend of Henry Cejudo – is smaller and isn’t as strong a kickboxer as Aldana. Despite that I’m not convinced at all that Melo is a UFC-level fighter, so I’m going with Cortez via decision.

Finally at Flyweight, Ariane Lipski returns to face Veronica Macedo. Lipski – a talented striker – hasn’t lived up to her pre-UFC hype thus far, dropping fights to Joanne Calderwood and Molly McCann, but this fight is much more winnable for her as she has more experience than Macedo and is a far better athlete. I’ll take Lipski via TKO in this one.