UFC Fight Night 165: Edgar vs. Korean Zombie - Predictions and Picks

This weekend sees the final UFC show of 2019 – and indeed, of the decade – as the promotion heads to Busan, South Korea for UFC Fight Night 165: Edgar vs. Korean Zombie. The show will mark the second time the UFC has headed to South Korea, following 2015’s Fight Night 79.

The main event sees Korean hero Chan Sung Jung taking on a late replacement in Frankie Edgar, while the rest of the card has a nice mix of homegrown fighters, prospects and veterans.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 165: Edgar vs. Korean Zombie.

#1 Frankie Edgar vs. Chan Sung Jung

Can the Korean Zombie take out Frankie Edgar?

Initially this fight would’ve seen Jung facing off with former title challenger Brian Ortega, but ‘T-City’ was forced to withdraw a week or so ago with a knee injury. Interestingly, Edgar stepping in to take this fight means we’re finally getting the fight that was set to headline the UFC’s 25th anniversary show last year before ‘The Answer’ was forced out and replaced by Yair Rodriguez.

This should be an interesting match, as Edgar will look to use his footwork and movement to avoid the heavy strikes of ‘The Korean Zombie’, and pick him apart on the feet, probably attempting to mix his wrestling game in too. For the Zombie, he’ll be looking to knock Edgar out – or perhaps even submit him on the ground should the fight go there.

For me this comes down to whether Edgar has enough left in the tank to remain a top contender. He was thoroughly outclassed in his title challenge against Max Holloway in July, but of course, Holloway is also a master of cutting angles, catching opponents with combinations they don’t see coming, and controlling the cage. The Korean Zombie is a much more straight-ahead fighter, meaning if Edgar is on form, he’ll be the one dancing around the outside.

The issue for me is that ‘The Answer’ is now 38 years old, and he’s been fighting at the very top against nothing but absolute beasts since 2007 – 12 years ago. He’s taken a ludicrous amount of damage across that period and although Holloway couldn’t finish him, his chin was cracked badly by Ortega in their 2018 fight and I don’t think he’s the same fighter who absorbed an inhuman amount of punishment in two fights with Gray Maynard.

Equally worrying for Edgar should be the boxing skill of Jung; sure, he’s willing to take too many clean strikes, but he also uses a ramrod jab to stop opponents in their tracks, and with a 72” reach, he’s a much longer fighter than the New Jersey native too. And he hits remarkably heavily for a Featherweight, turning out the lights on the likes of Renato Moicano and Dennis Bermudez in the past.

Could Edgar simply look to wrestle? It’s possible, but then it’s been a long time since we saw ‘The Answer’ come in with that kind of gameplan, and even if he can plant the Zombie on his back, the Korean has a truly venomous ground game, with the ability to catch low-percentage submissions from all kinds of positions.

I’ve historically underrated Edgar, so don’t get me wrong, he’s a genuinely great fighter. Unfortunately, I think he peaked some time ago and is now on his way down, while the Zombie is in his prime, is capable of outboxing a slower Edgar, and has heavy knockout power. With Edgar’s chin being cracked by Ortega, I think the Zombie wins this one impressively at home.

The Pick: Jung via third round TKO

#2 Volkan Oezdemir vs. Aleksandar Rakic

Aleksandar Rakic scored a huge KO in his last fight

This Light-Heavyweight clash is pretty intriguing, as former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir has now settled into a role as an ultra-tough gatekeeper, while Austria’s Rakic is one of the division’s fastest rising stars, and a win here could put him in line for a title shot some time in 2020.

Last time we saw Rakic, he knocked out Jimi Manuwa with a head kick in truly scary fashion. It’s true that the Londoner’s chin is highly questionable – Oezdemir knocked him out in 2017, for instance – but to take him out so quickly was still impressive, and prior to that the Austrian had won three straight fights in the Octagon.

Rakic is a tall, rangy fighter at 6’5”, and he’ll have both a height and reach advantage over Switzerland’s Oezdemir in this fight. To win, ‘No Time’ will probably have to get inside Rakic’s reach, and as he did against Dominick Reyes in March, he’ll have to turn the fight into a brawl of sorts, enticing Rakic into wild trades where he can hope to land one of his clubbing blows.

Oezdemir has slowed down a little since his initial three-fight win streak earned him a title shot, but his win over Ilir Latifi in August showed that he’s still very dangerous if an opponent gives him the opportunity to open up with his heavy shots, and he’s battle-tested, having faced nothing but world-class fighters in the UFC.

If Rakic wins this one then there’s no denying that he’s for real, but I’m not sure I can see it; the Austrian is too unproven against elite-level opposition for me to trust right now, and so I’m banking on Oezdemir dragging him into deep waters and drowning him, probably outworking him for a decision or late stoppage.

The Pick: Oezdemir via unanimous decision

#3 Doo Ho Choi vs. Charles Jourdain

Doo Ho Choi is back after a near-2 year layoff

Once considered the heir to the Korean Zombie’s throne as the premier fighter from South Korea, Doo Ho Choi has landed on some tough times as of late. He followed a Fight of the Year performance in a loss to Cub Swanson with a tough KO loss to Jeremy Stephens in January 2018, and hasn’t fought since.

‘The Korean Superboy’ has reportedly been fulfilling his mandatory military service, but will be able to fight here as the show is taking place on Korean soil. To return from almost two years on the shelf is always tricky, but thankfully Choi appears to have been handed a favourable match in this one.

Canada’s Jourdain has just one UFC fight to his name – a loss to Desmond Green in June – and despite coming on strongly in the third round of that fight, he didn’t really impress, being largely outstruck by Green in the opening two rounds.

At his best, Choi is an incredibly dangerous fighter; he hits very hard for a 145lber, he’s quick and has expert timing, and he’s also got plenty of experience against top-level opposition. The losses to Stephens and Swanson may have knocked his confidence, but the truth is that both men were high-level contenders when Choi fought them and losses to them are hardly shameful.

Assuming Choi doesn’t show any ill effects from his time on the sidelines, this should be a relatively comfortable – and violent – win for him. Jourdain has plenty of finishes on his ledger which suggests he’s a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter, and that should play into the hands of ‘The Korean Superboy’.

The Pick: Choi via first round KO

#4 Da Un Jung vs. Mike Rodriguez

Da Un Jung impressed in his UFC debut

This clash of Light-Heavyweights will hopefully see a violent finish; Jung has 9 KO’s to his name while Rodriguez has 8, and both men love to trade off with heavy blows. Any fight that contains a pair of heavy hitters is usually tricky to predict, but I’m siding with the home fighter in this one.

Firstly, it was notable in his UFC debut against Khadis Ibragimov that not only did Jung have a hell of a chin – he took some serious shots in the first round – but he was also very calm under fire, showed a strong gas tank, and took over late in the fight with crisp striking prior to his submission win.

The curiously nicknamed ‘Slow’ Rodriguez meanwhile hasn’t shown himself to be quite as technical a striker as Jung in his three UFC outings, and more importantly, he appeared to gas out after a strong first round against John Allan Arte in their summer fight. He’s got the power to knock opponents out, but can he really crack Jung’s chin?

I’m not convinced. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Rodriguez take the fight to Jung early on, but I expect him to run out of steam – particularly in front of a pro-Jung crowd – and the Korean fighter should do enough to edge out a decision in the later rounds.

The Pick: Jung via unanimous decision

#5 Jun Yong Park vs. Marc-Andre Barriault

Canada's Marc-Andre Barriault is looking for his first UFC win

In a Middleweight tilt, ‘The Iron Turtle’ Jun Yong Park returns to take on Canada’s Barriault, who is still looking for his first UFC victory. Judging on what I’ve seen from both men, this one should depend on which fighter can impose his will on the other; they’re both down-and-dirty types who love to exchange from the clinch and the pocket with heavy strikes.

Park made his debut in China this summer and looked strong in the first round of his fight with Anthony Hernandez, but despite having Hernandez hurt on occasion, he fell prey to a second round anaconda choke. Overall he appears to be a strong striker, but judging by that fight, his takedown defense needs some work.

Barriault had the same issues against both Andrew Sanchez and Krzysztof Jotko; he had both fighters hurt with strikes at points in their fights, but showed vulnerability to the takedown and ended up being largely grinded out. He showed a lot of toughness, but to really proceed in the UFC he’ll have to close that gap in grappling.

I’m leaning towards Barriault here I think; despite losing both of his UFC fights he never seemed to be completely out of the running in either, and Park appeared to gas out somewhat right before he was beaten by Hernandez. I’ll take Barriault to wear the Korean down for a decision here.

The Pick: Barriault via unanimous decision

#6 Kyung Ho Kang vs. Liu Pingyuan

Kyung Ho Kang is a highly underrated fighter

Kang – AKA ‘Mr Perfect’ – is one of the Bantamweight division’s most underrated fighters in my opinion. Debuting back in 2013, the Korean went 2-1 with one No Contest in his early days before temporarily retiring to complete his mandatory military service. When he returned in 2018, he submitted the tough Guido Cannetti, and in 2019 he’s 2-0 with solid wins over Teruto Ishihara and Brandon Davis.

China’s Pingyuan meanwhile overcame a terrible start to his MMA career – going 0-4 – to make it into the UFC in 2018, where he edged decisions over Damian Stasiak and Martin Day. A loss to Jonathan Martinez in July by KO ended that run, and now he’s faced with a tricky opponent in hostile territory.

I’ll be honest and say I don’t know all that much about Pingyuan; unlike Chinese stars such as Weili Zhang and Song Yadong he just hasn’t shown any flashes of brilliance, and he’s faced with a super-dangerous grappler here who’s been in with some of the better fighters in the division. This seems like a tailor-made fight for Kang in my opinion.

The Pick: Kang via first round submission

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Heavyweight prospect Ciryl Gane headlines the prelims

All seven of this weekend’s prelims will be shown on ESPN+. Headlining the portion is a Heavyweight clash between Ciryl Gane and Tanner Boser. Boser edged a decision over Daniel Spitz in his UFC debut in October, but I think he’s in over his head here; Gane came into the UFC with a reputation as a Francis Ngannou-like striker, but he’s actually won both of his fights by submission. If Gane can avoid the clubbing blows of Boser then I think he’ll win this one by submission again.

At Featherweight, Sung Woo Choi takes on Suman Mokhtarian. Choi is coming off two straight losses in the UFC and honestly didn’t show a lot in those two fights, so despite a layoff of over a year, I’m taking Australia’s Mokhtarian by submission here.

The always-exciting Dong Hyun Ma returns at Lightweight to face Omar Antonio Morales Ferrer. Venezuelan debutant Ferrer has 10 wins to his name – and looks like a heavy hitter – and that could bode well for him against the brawler Ma, whose chin now appears to have been cracked. I’ll take Ferrer via KO here.

In a key Flyweight fight, Alexandre Pantoja looks to snap the winning streak of Matt Schnell, who has picked up three victories in a row. I like Pantoja here; his grappling is incredibly dangerous and he’s an equally excellent striker, and his losses are to top contenders like Deiveson Figueiredo and Dustin Ortiz. Schnell has improved over the years, but I think Pantoja will take a decision here.

At Bantamweight, Said Nurmagomedov takes on Raoni Barcelos. This is an excellent fight that should probably have made the main card; Barcelos is perhaps the more dangerous finisher, but I think Nurmagomedov’s wrestling will win him a decision.

At Strawweight, Miranda Granger takes on Amanda Lemos. Granger is unbeaten in MMA and won her UFC debut earlier this year, while Brazil’s Lemos hasn’t fought since a 2017 loss to Leslie Smith. I don’t know a lot about either woman to be frank, but I’ll take Granger via decision in a coin flip.

Finally, Ryan Benoit returns at Bantamweight to face China’s Heili Alateng. Alateng is hugely unproven at the UFC level, and while Benoit hasn’t fought since 2017, he was always a solid fighter and a tricky challenge even for top contenders at 125lbs. I like Benoit to win via TKO in this one.