UFC Fight Night 167: Anderson vs. Blachowicz II - Predictions and Picks

After a big pay-per-view last weekend in the form of UFC 247, this weekend sees a smaller show for the world’s biggest promotion, as UFC Fight Night 167: Anderson vs. Blachowicz II goes down from Rio Rancho, New Mexico.

It’s the first time the UFC has been to the state since their visit to Albuquerque back in 2014, and while the card, as you can imagine, isn’t overly loaded, there are still a handful of fights on tap that make this a show worth watching.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night 167: Anderson vs. Blachowicz II.

#1 Corey Anderson vs. Jan Blachowicz

Corey Anderson defeated Johnny Walker in his last fight

A Light-Heavyweight title fight might be up for grabs here – unless the UFC decides to either rematch champ Jon Jones with Dominick Reyes or go in another direction altogether with ‘Bones’ – as both of these men are on strong winning streaks; Blachowicz has won 6 of his last 7, while Anderson hasn’t been beaten since 2017 and has won his last 4 fights.

Interestingly – as the subtitle for the event makes clear – this is also a rematch, as the two 205 lbers first faced off back at UFC 191 in September 2015. That fight was a plodding, dull affair that saw Anderson essentially out wrestle Blachowicz for a decision, but it’s safe to say that both men have improved a lot since then.

‘The Prince of Cieszyn’ hasn’t exactly closed the holes in his wrestling game; in truth he hasn’t fought a truly excellent wrestler since his 2017 loss to Patrick Cummins, but he’s definitely come on leaps and bounds with his grappling, as he’s won two fights by submission in recent years and is now a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu.

Anderson meanwhile is far more than just a wrestler with good punching power these days; sure, he still carries that power, as Johnny Walker found out in November, but he’s also a much more nuanced boxer, capable of fighting behind a stiff jab and using his punches to set up his takedowns and vice versa.

Is he as good a striker as Blachowicz? Most likely not; the Pole has been renowned for his kickboxing for years and has much more than a solid boxing game, most notably a savage attack to the body that he used to put away Ilir Latifi back in his UFC debut in 2014.

However, the fact is that for all of his grappling improvements, Blachowicz may not have fully developed his wrestling enough to deter a takedown artist as powerful as ‘Overtime’. Throw in the fact that Anderson was able to use his boxing to set up his takedowns perfectly against a fighter as good as Glover Teixeira in 2018 – and he’s developed further since – and it’s hard to imagine the Pole remaining on his feet throughout this contest.

For me, unless Blachowicz can land a sledgehammer shot to knock Anderson out – which isn’t impossible; ‘Overtime’ has been KO’d 3 times in the past and his chin isn’t bulletproof by any means – then I’m not sure if he can control enough of this fight to get a win. Is he tough enough to last the distance? For sure – he’s only ever been KO’d by the ultra-powerful Thiago Santos – but I’m confident in predicting that Anderson will outwork him for a decision.

The Pick: Anderson via unanimous decision

#2 Diego Sanchez vs. Michel Pereira

Can Diego Sanchez pick up another big UFC win?

This co-main event is a truly odd-sounding fight between two of the UFC’s most eccentric fighters. On paper it should be a traditional striker vs. grappler fight, but to be quite frank, when it comes to these two it’s hard to know exactly what to expect at all.

Sanchez certainly has Pereira beaten when it comes to experience; ‘The Nightmare’ will be stepping into the Octagon for the 29th time this weekend, in what will be his 42nd professional fight. There aren’t many fighters still kicking around from his generation – he’s the last man standing from the original season of The Ultimate Fighter and despite the damage he’s taken over the years, he still seems remarkably healthy.

Diego has developed his game over the last 15 years, but for however much he loves to trade bombs as we saw in his legendary brawls with Martin Kampmann and Gilbert Melendez, his best attribute is still his grappling. Sanchez isn’t the strongest wrestler, particularly at 170 lbs where he’s always been undersized, but only truly great grapplers have been able to compete with him on the mat.

It’s true that Sanchez’s last fight saw him firmly outgrappled by Michael Chiesa, but it must be noted that ‘Maverick’ has a tremendous grappling background of his own, and he’s also a truly monstrous Welterweight capable of styling on any fighter in the division on the ground. So I wouldn’t hold the loss against Diego – instead, it’s smarter to look at his back-to-back wins prior to that fight over Craig White and Mickey Gall.

Those fights showed Diego hasn’t actually lost anything on the ground or in terms of his incredible cardio; he’s still brutal from top position, he’s still almost impossible to out-scramble, and if he can drag an opponent into his world, even at the age of 38 he’s still capable of winning.

The problem ‘The Nightmare’ has here is the fact that he’s up against such an explosive athlete. Pereira isn’t a complete fighter by any means, as we saw in his frankly bizarre loss to Tristan Connelly – and the fact that he’s got another 9 losses to his name – but he throws low-percentage strikes like they’re perfectly normal and if he can land, as he did against Danny Roberts in his UFC debut, then he’s deadly.

That means that ‘Demolidor’ can almost certainly win this fight if he can land. However, while Diego’s durability isn’t what it once was, it’s worth noting that Pereira doesn’t appear to be a pinpoint striker with a flair for the unexpected, ala Israel Adesanya or Anderson Silva. The unexpected is the norm to him, which means he’s much less likely to land that killer blow even on the slower Sanchez.

Add in the fact that he completely ran out of steam when he couldn’t take Connelly out early on – and Diego has made a career of using his incredible conditioning to force opponents to wilt – and I’m leaning towards the veteran here. If he can get a tired Pereira down, too, I’m willing to suggest he can also finish him off.

The Pick: Sanchez via third round TKO

#3 Montana De La Rosa vs. Mara Romero Borella

Mara Romero Borella (right) should have enough to edge Montana De La Rosa

Outside of the almost DOA Women’s Featherweight division, it’s hard not to feel like the female Flyweight division is currently the weakest in the UFC. Case in point, neither De La Rosa nor Borella feel that far away from title contention at 125 lbs, and yet they’re both coming off losses. That’s largely because of the way in which champ Valentina Shevchenko keeps dispatching of her challengers, but also because they’re generally solid enough fighters.

Both women are primarily grapplers, first and foremost. All 3 of De La Rosa’s UFC wins came by submission, while Borella made her presence known in her UFC debut by submitting the favored Brazilian Kalindra Faria. On the other hand, evidence would suggest that neither woman is the greatest striker – particularly De La Rosa, who’s honestly shown very little in terms of a kickboxing game thus far in her career.

This could well be a close fight, but I’m favoring Borella for a couple of reasons. Firstly while she’s not the most natural striker, she seems more comfortable on her feet than De La Rosa, and was doing fine against Lauren Murphy before the veteran caught her with a huge knee for a third round TKO. And secondly, De La Rosa might’ve impressed in her 3 UFC wins, but they were against opponents that were inexperienced and largely overmatched.

Against the more experienced Andrea Lee on the other hand, she couldn’t really get her grappling game going, and ended up being largely outworked on the mat by ‘KGB’, particularly when it came to giving up top position. The likely cause? She’s just not the most physically powerful fighter.

With that in mind, I think Borella might struggle to impose herself early on, but eventually her physicality and overall skills will take over, allowing her to do enough to take a clear-cut decision.

The Pick: Borella via unanimous decision

#4 Brok Weaver vs. Rodrigo Vargas

Brok Weaver finally makes his UFC debut this weekend

Okay, so how this Lightweight tilt made it onto the main card of even a Fight Night over a genuinely quality clash like John Dodson vs. Nathaniel Wood is beyond me. Evidently, the UFC has a soft spot for Weaver, who is on a 7-fight win streak and signed with the promotion after a win on Dana White’s Contender Series last August. Since then he’s been signed for a previous main card fight, only to withdraw due to an injury.

Here, he faces Mexico’s Vargas, who was beaten in his UFC debut in 2019 by Alex da Silva Coelho in what was a largely forgettable fight. To be fair to Vargas, he did take that fight on late notice – meaning we may not have seen the best of him – but it’s hard to know exactly what that ‘best’ is due to a general lack of footage on him.

The footage that is available shows a fighter who’s aggressive in all areas, and who appears to be a solid athlete too. He wasn’t able to get a lot going against Coelho due to a lack of defensive grappling, but from what I’ve seen of Weaver, he’s more of a striker, meaning the Mexican shouldn’t have to worry quite so much about being held down.

I’m honestly not sure what to think here; both men are wildly unproven at the UFC level and Weaver in particular just doesn’t seem to have a lot that stands out. He’s got 8 decisions in his 14 wins and doesn’t appear to pack that much power in his strikes, rather he just seems tough and workmanlike more than anything.

That doesn’t often bode well for a UFC run, but to be fair, he’s not up against a proven UFC-level talent here meaning he could pull another grinding win out before crashing and burning as he moves further up the card. I’ll take Weaver via decision.

The Pick: Weaver via unanimous decision

#5 Rogerio Bontorin vs. Ray Borg

Rogerio Bontorin could be a man to watch at 125lbs

I’ll be honest and say I’m surprised to see Borg back down at 125 lbs; sure, he didn’t look great in his Bantamweight debut, a loss to Casey Kenney, but he did defeat Gabriel Silva in his last outing at 135 lbs and he appeared to struggle massively to hit the Flyweight limit. To see him struggle again here wouldn’t be a surprise, to be honest.

At his best, he’s a dangerous fighter in all areas; ‘The Taxmexican Devil’ is primarily a grappler, although he’s a more-than-willing striker too. But it’s his wrestling and ground-and-pound with which he made his name, beating up the likes of Louis Smolka and Chris Kelades en route to his failed 2017 Flyweight title shot.

Bontorin is more of an unknown quantity; the Brazilian is 2-0 in the UFC and is an impressive 16-1 overall, but the majority of his pre UFC opponents weren’t all that great. His UFC debut win over Magomed Bibulatov on the other hand was massively impressive, as he was able to outwork a highly touted opponent in all areas. And his second fight was exciting while it lasted – Bontorin opened a nasty cut over Raulian Paiva’s eye that forced a stoppage.

This then could well be a contender for ‘Fight of the Night’. How it goes should come down to how well Bontorin can deal with the tight grappling game of Borg. If he’s able to stuff Borg’s takedowns and perhaps even look to outgrapple him, then he can definitely win this fight. If he can’t, then ‘The Tazmexican Devil’ should have enough experience to grind a victory out.

I’m going for the less experienced fighter here, though. I worry for Borg trying to make it back to 125 lbs with a full gas tank, and if he runs out of steam then Bontorin is the type of fighter who could easily push the pace and force him to wilt down the stretch. Add in his solid display against a grappler like Bibulatov, and we could be looking at a potentially dangerous contender in this division going forward.

The Pick: Bontorin via unanimous decision

#6 Lando Vannata vs. Yancy Medeiros

Yancy Medeiros is one of the UFC's toughest fighters

If nothing else, this sounds like a wildly exciting fight at 155lbs. Vannata hasn’t really lived up to the potential he showed back in that insane UFC debut against Tony Ferguson in 2016, going a bizarre 2-3-2 since then, and while his overall game is good, he’s shown that he can be beaten by more polished fighters in both grappling and striking.

I’m not sure that I’d call Medeiros ‘polished’ per say; instead the Hawaiian is a truly wild brawler, the kind of fighter who is capable of winning from all areas, largely through sheer toughness and grit more than clean, technical skills. One of the most durable fighters on the UFC roster, it’s hard to count his last two losses against him; one came in a wild brawl with Donald Cerrone, while the other saw him succumb to the incredible wrestling and ground-and-pound of the dangerous Gregor Gillespie.

Outside of that, his granite chin got him past dangerous fighters like Alex Oliveira and Erick Silva – both of whom were defeated by TKO – while the punishment he endured in a loss to Francisco Trinaldo was absolutely inhuman.

Throw Vannata’s ‘Groovy’ striking style in there with Medeiros’ meat-and-potatoes brawling and iron chin, and we should definitely be in for a treat come the weekend. But who’s going to take this one? Personally, I’m leaning towards the Hawaiian.

Vannata is a creative and explosive striker – witness his wheel kick KO of John Makdessi – but he’s only truly effective if he’s given the room to operate in, which isn’t likely to happen against a hard-nosed swarmer like Medeiros. The Hawaiian is also a venomous grappler when he needs to be, and while nobody is going to mistake him for say, Demian Maia, he’s more than capable of styling on a tired opponent later in the fight.

Medeiros might get himself into trouble in this one as he’s naturally slower than Vannata and is almost always hittable, but I don’t think ‘Groovy Lando’ has enough to put such a tough opponent away in one blow, and eventually he’ll tire and find himself being worn down by the Hawaiian’s gutsy style.

The Pick: Medeiros via third round TKO

#7 The Prelims: ESPN+ card

Longtime veteran Tim Means headlines this weekend's prelim card

All of this show’s prelims will be available on ESPN+, and surprisingly for a Fight Night show there’s plenty to love here.

At the top of the portion is a Welterweight clash between Tim Means and Daniel Rodriguez. ‘The Dirty Bird’, a veteran of 20 UFC fights, is coming off a solid win over Thiago Alves, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that he’s past his prime now at the age of 35. Still, his lengthy reach, use of nasty clinch strikes and an opportunistic submission game still make him dangerous. Rodriguez meanwhile is much younger, but he’s also very unproven, as ‘D-Rod’ has yet to debut in the UFC proper and has only been fighting since 2015. I’m not convinced about his elite potential and to be frank, Means is a nasty opponent to be starting a UFC run against. I’ll take Means via TKO.

At Bantamweight, arguably the best fight on the entire card sees veteran John Dodson take on Nathaniel Wood, one of the best prospects in the division. This should come down to whether Wood can outwork Dodson in the same way that the likes of Petr Yan and Jimmie Rivera did, without running into a sledgehammer punch from ‘The Magician’, who still carries terrifying power in his hands. It’s a close fight to call but I like Wood and he’s got a veteran’s poise to go along with his natural gifts. I’m taking Wood via decision here.

At Lightweight, it’s a clash of true veterans, as Jim Miller steps into the Octagon for what will be the 34th time to take on ‘Hot Sauce’ Scott Holtzman. The demise of Miller has been expected for years now – not least during a sticky patch when he was in fact suffering from Lyme disease – but he’s actually on a 2-fight win streak right now. Prime Miller would’ve shredded Holtzman – a passable but not exceptional fighter in all areas – but at 36 with so much damage behind him it’s a trickier pick. I’m still going with Miller due to Holtzman’s wins not really being impressive, but it could be a close fight.

Prospects face off at 135lbs, as Casey Kenney takes on powerful Georgian wrestler Merab Dvalishvili. Dvalishvili is a tremendous takedown artist and he’s also coming off two straight wins, but Kenney is no stranger to beating touted grapplers; he defeated Ray Borg and Manny Bermudez in his last two fights. This one should be a super-close fight but I think Kenney’s aggression and more meaningful offense might net him a decision.

At Bantamweight, the lanky former 145 lber Macy Chiasson takes on Nicco Montano in a clash of former TUF winners. This one’s quite tough to pick as Chiasson found that she can’t rely purely on raw strength and athleticism when she was beaten by Lina Lansberg last September, but she is far bigger than the former Flyweight champion, and has a huge reach advantage in particular. If she can fend off Montano’s takedown I think she can win this one by decision.

Finally, Mark De La Rosa faces Raulian Paiva in a Flyweight clash. Both men are coming off two straight wins, but while ‘Bumblebee’ De La Rosa has more UFC wins to his name – 2 – Paiva is better than his record suggests and was giving the touted Rogerio Bontorin a tough fight before he suffered a bad cut. I like Paiva via TKO here.