UFC Fight Night 167: Anderson vs. Blachowicz II - Predictions and Picks

#2 Diego Sanchez vs. Michel Pereira

Can Diego Sanchez pick up another big UFC win?

This co-main event is a truly odd-sounding fight between two of the UFC’s most eccentric fighters. On paper it should be a traditional striker vs. grappler fight, but to be quite frank, when it comes to these two it’s hard to know exactly what to expect at all.

Sanchez certainly has Pereira beaten when it comes to experience; ‘The Nightmare’ will be stepping into the Octagon for the 29th time this weekend, in what will be his 42nd professional fight. There aren’t many fighters still kicking around from his generation – he’s the last man standing from the original season of The Ultimate Fighter and despite the damage he’s taken over the years, he still seems remarkably healthy.

Diego has developed his game over the last 15 years, but for however much he loves to trade bombs as we saw in his legendary brawls with Martin Kampmann and Gilbert Melendez, his best attribute is still his grappling. Sanchez isn’t the strongest wrestler, particularly at 170 lbs where he’s always been undersized, but only truly great grapplers have been able to compete with him on the mat.

It’s true that Sanchez’s last fight saw him firmly outgrappled by Michael Chiesa, but it must be noted that ‘Maverick’ has a tremendous grappling background of his own, and he’s also a truly monstrous Welterweight capable of styling on any fighter in the division on the ground. So I wouldn’t hold the loss against Diego – instead, it’s smarter to look at his back-to-back wins prior to that fight over Craig White and Mickey Gall.

Those fights showed Diego hasn’t actually lost anything on the ground or in terms of his incredible cardio; he’s still brutal from top position, he’s still almost impossible to out-scramble, and if he can drag an opponent into his world, even at the age of 38 he’s still capable of winning.

The problem ‘The Nightmare’ has here is the fact that he’s up against such an explosive athlete. Pereira isn’t a complete fighter by any means, as we saw in his frankly bizarre loss to Tristan Connelly – and the fact that he’s got another 9 losses to his name – but he throws low-percentage strikes like they’re perfectly normal and if he can land, as he did against Danny Roberts in his UFC debut, then he’s deadly.

That means that ‘Demolidor’ can almost certainly win this fight if he can land. However, while Diego’s durability isn’t what it once was, it’s worth noting that Pereira doesn’t appear to be a pinpoint striker with a flair for the unexpected, ala Israel Adesanya or Anderson Silva. The unexpected is the norm to him, which means he’s much less likely to land that killer blow even on the slower Sanchez.

Add in the fact that he completely ran out of steam when he couldn’t take Connelly out early on – and Diego has made a career of using his incredible conditioning to force opponents to wilt – and I’m leaning towards the veteran here. If he can get a tired Pereira down, too, I’m willing to suggest he can also finish him off.

The Pick: Sanchez via third round TKO