UFC Fight Night 168: Felder vs. Hooker - Predictions and Picks

#4 Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Yan Xiaonan

Karolina Kowalkiewicz fought for the UFC Strawweight title in 2016

It doesn’t seem all that long ago that Kowalkiewicz – at that point undefeated – was facing off with fellow Polish striker Joanna Jedrzejczyk for the UFC Strawweight title, but in fact it’s well over three years ago since that bout now. And since then, things haven’t been kind to her; she’s on a three-fight losing streak, coming up short to Jessica Andrade, Michelle Waterson and Alexa Grasso.

This is a big chance for her to bounce back, though. Xiaonan has an impressive record of 11-1 and is 4-0 in the UFC, but she’s also not close to the level of Kowalkiewicz’s last three opponents. So can the Polish favorite get back on the winning track, or will ‘Fury’ use her as a stepping stone to bigger things?

For the most part, Kowalkiewicz’s game is built around her strong fundamentals in all areas. She’s a decent striker, decent grappler and pretty strong in the clinch, too – it’s been the fact that she isn’t necessarily world-class in any area that’s cost her in all of her losses, which have all come against notably better athletes. Essentially, she doesn’t hit that hard, can be submitted and can be taken down, but only by the best, otherwise she’ll comfortably outwork her opponents, as she did against the likes of Randa Markos and Jodie Esquibel.

This fight is intriguing because from what Xiaonan has shown in the UFC, she’s got a very similar skill-set to that of her opponent. She strikes well – enough to outpoint Angela Hill in a fight that largely stayed vertical – and also has some strong takedowns, but unlike those fighters who’ve beaten Kowalkiewicz recently, she doesn’t offer the brutal power of Andrade or the technical skill of Waterson.

Perhaps the closest opponent to compare her to would be Alexa Grasso, but then I’d argue that the Mexican’s striking fundamentals are better – and she appears to be a slightly larger Strawweight, too. And of course, while she lost to Grasso, Kowalkiewicz gave her a hell of a fight along the way.

The fight that makes me lean towards Kowalkiewicz taking this one is her 2016 clash with former UFC champion Rose Namajunas. That fight saw Kowalkiewicz largely losing a striking battle early on, but she was able to adjust and found that the clinch was a sweet spot for her, and from there she worked ‘Thug Rose’ over with a lot of close-quarter striking for a decision.

I firmly believe Kowalkiewicz is a much better fighter than her recent record suggests; she’s not going to become a title contender again I don’t think as there are too many better athletes in the division, but she’s a hell of a gatekeeper and I don’t think Xiaonan has the overall ability to get past her this weekend.

The Pick: Kowalkiewicz via unanimous decision