UFC Fight Night 168: Felder vs. Hooker - Predictions and Picks

#5 Brad Riddell vs. Magomed Mustafaev

Magomed Mustafaev is a monster at 155lbs

New Zealand’s Brad Riddell – who trains out of the same camp as Israel Adesanya and Dan Hooker – made his UFC debut back in October and was able to defeat Australia’s Jamie Mullarkey – a fighter with a similar experience level to that of ‘Quake’. Given the UFC’s penchant for matching home country fighters in favourable ways then, this fight seems utterly baffling to me.

Riddell looked good in his fight with Mullarkey, showing skills on the feet and on the ground to suggest that he’s a solid athlete who could probably have some success at the lower end of the UFC. But to put him in with Mustafaev in his second fight is madness in my eyes.

Yet another badass to hail from the Republic of Dagestan, Mustafaev has been in the UFC since 2015. His lone loss came at the hands of Kevin Lee – a high level contender – and even that one came after the Russian had seen some early success before succumbing to the wrestling of ‘The Motown Phenom’. Outside of that, he destroyed Piotr Hallmann, Joe Proctor and Rafael Fiziev in devastating fashion.

More of a striker than countrymen Khabib Nurmagomedov and Islam Makhachev, Mustafaev loves to throw kicks. He’s extremely adept at landing vicious leg kicks, but the spinning back kick is also a devastating weapon that he uses – ask Fiziev, who was knocked out by one in brutal fashion last April. Of course, he can grapple too – showing some beautiful trips and throws primarily from the clinch – but that appears to be a fall-back plan for him if his striking game isn’t working.

I hate to write off any fighter in the UFC – particularly one who’s fighting at home – but I just don’t see how Riddell wins this fight. He appears to be slower than his opponent, and while he doesn’t appear to have any major holes in his game he seems to be miles behind Mustafaev in all areas. If he makes it to a decision I’d be surprised, but I see Mustafaev stopping him before that.

The Pick: Mustafaev via second round TKO